Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Paia, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 6:49PM Thursday April 25, 2019 1:49 PM HST (23:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:08AMMoonset 11:19AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 919 Am Hst Thu Apr 25 2019
Rest of today..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Isolated showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Isolated showers.
Sunday..North winds 15 knots becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Scattered showers.
Monday..Winds variable less than 10 knots becoming north 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 919 Am Hst Thu Apr 25 2019
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. The ridge of high pressure will remain north of the state through tonight, then begin to weaken Friday through the weekend as a front stalls and dissipates northwest of kauai.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paia, HI
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location: 20.9, -156.36     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 251935
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
935 am hst Thu apr 25 2019

Synopsis
A ridge to the north will maintain moderate trade winds today. An
approaching cold front will weaken the trades and allow the
background flow to become southeast on Friday. This will lead to
some local land and seas breezes this weekend. An upper level
trough digging into Sunday night into Monday will enhance shower
activity.

Discussion
No changes to the forecast this morning, with no short term
changes expected.

A high pressure ridge to the north will maintain the moderate
trade wind flow today. A front approaching from the northwest will
start to erode the ridge tomorrow, which will result in a
weakening of the trade flow initially, and then a switch to a more
southeasterly flow. Winds could go light enough for some local
land and seas breezes this weekend, so we can expect a few more
clouds and showers over interior parts of the islands.

The bigger weather story is an upper level trough approaching
from the northwest Sunday night through Monday. The ECMWF depicts
a more defined trough approaching kauai than the GFS right now.

Both models have 500 mb temperatures around -11 to -12 celsius but
the ECMWF has a little more moisture with the system. Temperatures
this cold at 500 mb are below normal for april, and the
precipitable water (pw) being forecast in the models between 1.30
and 1.50 inches is well above normal. The ECMWF is forecasting a
max pw near 1.60, while the GFS is a little drier. The gfs
forecast lifted index for Sunday night over kauai is around -3.

All said, this will be an unstable airmass moving over at least
the western end of the island chain. The current progression of
the trough has it approaching from the northwest and then moving
to the east, which may keep the most of the focus over kauai and
oahu.

Will likely be making some changes to the forecast for Sunday
night through Monday to beef up the pops and possibly introduce
the wording for some heavier rain. Will likely hold off on the
introduction of thunderstorms while monitoring the next couple of
model runs.

High pressure is expected to build in north of the area Tuesday
into Wednesday which will at least briefly return trades to the
area. However some moisture leftover from the above mentioned
front may be riding in on the trades.

Aviation
Trade winds will be in the moderate range today as a high
pressure ridge remains north of the state.VFR will prevail, with
only isolated areas of showers and lower ceilings in windward and
mauka sections over the individual isles.

No airmets are currently in effect.

Marine
Moderate to fresh easterly trades associated with a ridge north
of the islands will continue today, then weaken Friday into the
weekend as a cold front approaches. Winds will steadily veer out
of the east-southeast direction and trend down into the light to
moderate range Saturday (strongest eastern end of the state), then
continue into early next week. Land and sea breeze conditions
with a light background east-southeast component will result near
the coasts through this time, especially for the waters west of
maui. In addition to the winds, the shower coverage will likely
increase later in the weekend into early next week as an upper
trough and cold front begin to influence the local weather.

Although confidence remains low at this point, a thunderstorm or
two can't be ruled out Sunday through Monday as the upper trough
moves over the area.

Small but steady surf will continue along north facing shores
through the weekend due to a couple of recent systems passing north
of the islands. Swell directions associated with these small
sources will transition from the north-northwest to the north
today, then to the north-northeast Friday through the weekend.

A slightly larger northwest swell associated with a gale that has
developed around the date line near 40n (around 1300 nm NW of the
islands) is forecast to arrive late Sunday, peak Sunday night into
Monday, then ease into midweek. Surf will respond along exposed
north and west facing shores, but remain well below advisory levels.

A similar trend will continue along south facing shores due to the
recent active pattern over the southern pacific within hawaii's
swell window. A series of long-period pulses, spaced a couple of
days apart, out of the south are expected through the first half
of next week. For the long range, the powerful, near hurricane-
force, system passing south of australia yesterday will continue
eastward through Saturday. As it passes south of tasman sea and
new zealand, a decent fetch driving seas into the 20 to 25 ft
range this weekend may translate to a small southwest swell
(tasman source) for the islands next weekend (1st weekend in may)
if the fetch sets up as projected.

Minimal surf is anticipated along east facing shores due to the
local trades that are forecast to trend down locally and upstream of
the state over the weekend into next week.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
Small craft advisory until 6 pm hst this evening for alenuihaha
channel.

Discussion... M ballard
aviation... Kinel
marine... Kino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 6 mi37 min NNE 16 G 20 76°F 1015.1 hPa
51205 9 mi19 min 76°F6 ft
51213 36 mi49 min 79°F2 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 78 mi49 min 77°F6 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kahului, Kahului Airport, HI4 mi55 minNE 12 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F66°F51%1015.5 hPa
Lahaina - West Maui, HI17 mi64 minNNE 14 G 2015.00 miA Few Clouds86°F66°F52%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from HOG (wind in knots)
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NE20NE20NE18NE13NE10NE11NE8NE8NE8NE5NE8NE7NE9NE6NE9NE10N7NE9NE15NE19NE20
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NE13NE10NE10NE12NE8NE7NE9NE9NE11NE7E4NE11NE13NE17
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Tide / Current Tables for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, Hawaii
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Kahului
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:08 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:59 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:17 AM HST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:19 AM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:48 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:34 PM HST     1.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.1110.90.90.80.70.60.40.30.30.30.40.60.81.11.31.61.71.81.81.81.6

Tide / Current Tables for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, Hawaii (2)
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Kahului
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:08 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:20 AM HST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:01 AM HST     0.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:19 AM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:51 AM HST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:55 PM HST     1.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.40.40.40.50.60.80.80.70.60.50.50.50.70.91.21.51.71.921.91.71.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Molokai, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.