Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Paia, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 5:59PM Friday October 19, 2018 2:57 AM HST (12:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:14PMMoonset 2:05AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 925 Pm Hst Thu Oct 18 2018
Rest of tonight..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 3 feet. Isolated showers after midnight.
Saturday..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 3 feet. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered heavy showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 3 feet. Isolated showers in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 3 feet. Isolated showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 4 feet. Isolated showers in the evening.
Monday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell south 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 4 to 6 feet. SWell south 3 feet.
PHZ100 925 Pm Hst Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface ridge north of the islands will remain weak through Friday, then gradually strengthen from Saturday into next week. A upper-level disturbance will bring the threat of locally heavy showers and Thunderstorms the next couple of days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paia, HI
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location: 20.9, -156.36     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 190635
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
835 pm hst Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
A gentle to locally moderate trade winds will persist through the
next couple of days. An unstable air mass may settle over the
islands over the weekend as an upper level disturbance slowly
moves through the area. This will result in the potential for a
thunderstorm across most of the island chain beginning Friday
night. Trade winds will rebuild on Sunday and early next week,
though unstable conditions may still linger over portions of the
state.

Discussion
The big island had another active afternoon, more so than past
couple of days. Today's activity with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms was not only occurred on the windward side near the
town of volcano, bu the entire length of the kau district, and on
the lee side of the island south of the junction at saddle road.

This weather on the big island could be attributed to lingering
moisture from a front that had passed through a few days ago, an
unstable air mass, and daytime heating. These ingredients will
once again act together Friday afternoon, with additional help
from an approaching upper level disturbance. So, more widespread
activity is possible.

The precipitable water value (pw) is highest over the big island
at 2 inches, and the GFS solution maintain this value to until
Saturday night, followed by a drop to 1.65 inches on Sunday. As
for the other islands, pw increases from a low of 1.25 inches to
between 1.30 and 1.50 inches tomorrow afternoon, which is pretty
seasonable for this time of the year. The GFS based relative
humidity cross-section of the island chain, suggest a low level
inversion is still active across the smaller islands but not so
for the big island. The GFS has this inversion at 8 to 10k feet
over kauai and maui, and 6 to 8k over molokai and oahu. The wind
forecast calls for a weak trade wind flow, that will be weak
enough, to support a daytime sea breeze, onshore flow for all of
the smaller islands on Friday, but especially kauai.

Putting all these elements together, we can expect some scattered
interior leeward showers for all islands but particularly kauai
and maui. The low level inversion over oahu and molokai will limit
these convective showers. This GFS solution has the low level
inversion weakening Friday afternoon across the smaller islands.

The upper level disturbance will be moving down the island chain
on Saturday with the height of the moisture ranging from 12k feet
over kauai, sloping to 20k feet over maui with the highest rh
below 8k feet. The low level inversion remains weak over the
smaller islands through Sunday, with moisture extending to between
12k and 18k between kauai and maui. Also, the northeast trades
are expected to gain strength to moderate speed on Friday
night Saturday, with further strengthening to locally strong by
early Monday morning. So, what we may be encountering, is some
elevated enhanced trade showers Saturday through at least Sunday
night. The rh profile over big island on Sunday suggest the
unstable air mass to continue there. But may be some good news to
come.

The new GFS and the old ECMWF (ec) solutions differs thereafter,
with the old ec stalling the upper trough over maui county,
and pushing it westward through Tuesday, while the GFS is more
progressive and nudging the upper trough east of the big island
Sunday night early Monday morning, and bringing in a mid level
ridge over the islands. If the GFS holds true, it will finally
put an end to a period of unsettled weather for the big island.

The current forecast calls for a slight chance of a thunderstorm
for the smaller islands starting Friday night. Given the
assessment above, it is too close a call and will continue to be a
part of the forecast package.

Aviation
Light to occasionally moderate trade winds will hold through
Friday. As has been the case, brief to tempo MVFR ceilings and or
visibilities will mainly affect windward and mauka sections around
the island chain, especially the big island where remnant moisture
from an old front lingers. And a slight chance of thunderstorms
will exist Friday afternoon for the island of hawaii as well.

As per weather radar, the showers appear to have diminished over
the windward areas of maui and the big island, where there is
currently an airmet sierra for mountain obscuration. This airmet
will be lowered at the next update at 10z or sooner should the
conditions hold.

Marine
The arrival of a significant long-period S swell is anticipated
overnight and Friday, with surf along S facing shores of all
islands building to advisory levels by Saturday, and potentially
as early as Friday night. This swell is expected to remain
elevated for several days, and peak surf heights with this long-
lived swell could approach the south shore high surf warning
threshold (15 feet) over the weekend. Buoy observations will be
monitored to fine tune the forecast, and a high surf advisory
(hsa) will likely be issued on Friday. Elsewhere, surf heights
will remain below advisory levels for at least the next several
days, although a new short-period nnw swell is expected Friday.

See the oahu surf discussion (srdhfo) for additional details.

Light to locally moderate trade winds are expected into Friday,
with a gradual increase in NE trade winds Friday night and
Saturday as high pressure builds to the NW of the islands. Winds
should remain below small craft advisory (sca) speeds through
Saturday into Sunday, with moderate to locally fresh trade winds
potentially requiring a SCA for the windier zones early to mid
next week. Uncertainty with this portion of the forecast is due to
forecast models increasing the low-level pressure gradient as a
tropical disturbance passes S of the islands.

A persistent upper-level trough over the area will develop a cut-
off low this weekend, maintaining unstable conditions that will
bring the threat of locally heavy showers and or thunderstorms.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
None.

Lau kinel birchard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 6 mi39 min NE 7 G 11
51205 9 mi27 min 82°F6 ft
51213 36 mi87 min 82°F3 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 78 mi57 min 80°F4 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kahului, Kahului Airport, HI4 mi63 minENE 610.00 miFair76°F72°F88%1013.3 hPa

Wind History from HOG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5NE3NE6NE3NE7NE8NE11NE14NE15N14NE15NE12NE10NE11NE7NE11N7N7N10NE9N10E7E6
1 day agoE6NE10E6E4NE6E8NE9NW9NE12
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2 days agoN4NE7NE7NE5NE6E6NE11NE11NE13N14NE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, Hawaii (2)
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Kahului
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:06 AM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 AM HST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:22 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:59 AM HST     2.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:14 PM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:58 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:01 PM HST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:51 PM HST     1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.41.210.80.80.91.21.51.92.12.22.11.91.51.20.80.60.50.60.81.11.51.7

Tide / Current Tables for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, Hawaii
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Kahului
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:06 AM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:01 AM HST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:22 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:53 AM HST     2.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:14 PM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:58 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:36 PM HST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.31.10.90.80.70.811.31.61.92.12.22.11.81.51.10.80.70.70.811.31.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Molokai, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.