Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kualapuu, HI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 7:10PM Thursday June 20, 2019 3:47 AM HST (13:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:15PMMoonset 8:45AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ120 Pailolo Channel- 320 Am Hst Thu Jun 20 2019
Today..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Friday night..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet in the evening then 2 feet or less. SWell northeast 3 feet. Isolated showers after midnight.
Saturday..Winds variable less than 10 knots becoming east 15 knots in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 feet or less. SWell northeast 4 feet. Isolated showers through the day.
Saturday night..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. SWell northeast 4 feet. Isolated showers through the night.
Sunday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. SWell northeast 3 to 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. SWell northeast 3 feet. Isolated showers.
PHZ100 320 Am Hst Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Ridge of high pressure will shift southward into the area Friday through the weekend as low pressure develops along a trough to the northwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kualapuu, HI
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location: 21.29, -157     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 201325
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
325 am hst Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
Moderate trade winds will focus showers mainly across windward
areas today. Winds will weaken and shift around to the southeast
Friday through early next week, leading to daytime sea breezes,
spotty interior showers, and more muggy conditions.

Discussion
Currently at the surface, a 1032 mb high is centered around 1750
miles northeast of honolulu, while a weak surface trough remains
nearly stationary several hundred miles northwest of kauai. Aloft,
upper level ridging remains over the islands, with a broad upper
level trough northwest of the state. Infrared satellite imagery
shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas, with a few
pockets of enhanced cloud cover over windward slopes. Radar
imagery shows a few showers moving into windward areas, with
mainly rain free conditions in leeward locales at the moment.

Main short term concerns revolve around the diminishing trades
and rainfall chances over the next couple days.

Model solutions are in good agreement showing the upper level
trough northwest of the islands, amplifying and cutting off into
a closed upper low over the next couple days. This is expected to
result in the surface trough northwest of the islands sharpening
up, with a surface low developing along the trough. Locally, this
will lead to the winds shifting around to the southeast and
decreasing through the rest of the work week and over the upcoming
weekend. The trades appear to hold on today at moderate strength,
then a sea and land breeze pattern will likely develop in the
shadow of the islands Friday through the weekend. There is now
better agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions showing
a light wind regime holding in place through the middle of next
week. If this holds true, land and sea breezes will likely
continue in most leeward areas.

As for weather details, expect a fairly dry trade wind pattern to
hold in place today, with a few showers mainly affecting windward
and mauka areas. As the trades diminish and the low level
boundary layer flow shifts around to the southeast, speed
convergence could result in a few more showers tonight and
Friday. Showers are expected to favor windward and mauka areas and
locations near the coast tonight and Friday morning, and interior
and leeward areas during the afternoon hours Friday. A fairly dry
pattern should then hold in place Friday night through the
weekend, with a few showers possible near the coast at night and a
few showers developing over the island interiors each afternoon.

Details become a bit more unclear next week, but with the lighter
wind regime looking more likely, showers should favor windward
and mauka areas during the day and interior and leeward areas
during the afternoon and evening hours. No significant rainfall is
expected through the forecast period.

Aviation
Strong high pressure will persist far northeast of hawaii. This
will allow for moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds to
persist across the main hawaiian islands. The atmosphere will
remain mostly dry and mostly stable. Morning upper air soundings
indicate a well defined inversion aloft at 6000 to 8000 ft. Shower
activity will thus be limited but focused along windward slopes
and coasts.

Light sea breezes are expected to develop across leeward big
island in the afternoon. This will allow for modest cumulus build
ups over interior portions of the big island through early evening.

Sea breezes will be replaced by weak land breezes after sunset.

No airmets currently in effect or anticipated at this time.

Marine
Fresh trades will hold today, then begin to weaken tonight
through Friday as the ridge shifts southward into the area in
response to low pressure developing along an old frontal boundary
several hundred nautical miles northwest of kauai. This
transition will allow the low-level flow to shift out of the
southeast direction, likely giving way to localized land and sea
breeze conditions near the coasts Friday through early next week.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through early
next week with mainly a combination of short-period southeast
trade wind energy and overlapping background southerly swells
moving through.

For the long range, guidance is advertising a gale- to storm-
force low passing south to southeast of new zealand over the
upcoming weekend with seas forecast to reach the 35 to 45 ft
range. If this scenario materializes, a decent south swell will
become a possibility locally at the end of the month through the
first couple of days in july.

Small to moderate short-period surf will hold along east facing
shores today, then trend down Friday as the trades ease. An
upward trend, however, is anticipated over the weekend as a
moderate period (10-12 seconds) northeast swell from a pocket of
strong breezes that has setup within the 040-060 degree band
relative to the islands over the northeast pacific moves through.

Heights should remain below the advisory level for east facing
shores through the peak this weekend.

Fire weather
Fuel conditions are drier than normal, with the keetch-byram
drought index (kbdi) already above the red flag warning threshold
of 600. Conditions at hnl reached red flag criteria briefly
yesterday, sustained winds of 20+ mph and relative humidity
values less than or equal to 45 percent, but did not last for the
required 2 consecutive hours. While we're still not expected to
reach all the red flag thresholds today (wind will likely be the
limiting factor), conditions will be dry and somewhat gusty,
resulting in increased fire danger. Decreasing winds and
increasing rh values from Friday onward will diminish those
concerns a bit.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
None.

Discussion fire weather... Jelsema
aviation... Bedal
marine... Gibbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 37 mi47 min 79°F5 ft
51213 37 mi47 min 82°F4 ft
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 39 mi65 min NE 8 G 11 76°F 1014.3 hPa
51207 42 mi53 min 78°F4 ft
51210 42 mi47 min 78°F4 ft
MOKH1 - 1612480 - Mokuoloe, HI 43 mi71 min ENE 6 G 7 78°F 82°F1014.9 hPa
OOUH1 - 1612340 - Honolulu, HI 46 mi65 min E 1.9 G 2.9 77°F 81°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kaunakakai, Molokai Airport, HI11 mi53 minNE 7 G 1810.00 miFair76°F66°F72%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from HMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE7NE5NE7NE13
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1 day agoCalmNW6NE4NE7
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NE6NE9E6CalmNE9NE9
2 days agoN5NE4NE5--N4N5N4S8NE4N10
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NE6NE6NE6NE5N4NE6NE6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Kaunakakai, Molokai (Hawaii)
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Kaunakakai
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:22 AM HST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:02 AM HST     0.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:46 AM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:56 AM HST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:32 PM HST     2.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:12 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:15 PM HST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.20.30.50.60.60.60.50.30.20.10.20.40.81.21.61.92.12.121.61.20.8

Tide / Current Tables for Kaunakakai, Molokai (Hawaii) (2)
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Kaunakakai
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:27 AM HST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:03 AM HST     0.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:46 AM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:46 AM HST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:30 PM HST     2.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:12 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:15 PM HST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.10.10.30.40.60.60.60.40.30.10.10.20.40.81.21.61.92.12.11.91.61.20.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Molokai, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.