Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kailua, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:34PM Friday February 23, 2018 10:38 AM HST (20:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:36PMMoonset 1:05AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ116 Kaiwi Channel- 925 Am Hst Fri Feb 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through early Monday morning...
Rest of today..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Mixed swell northwest 5 feet and east 5 feet. Haze. Scattered heavy showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Mixed swell northwest 4 feet and east 5 to 6 feet. Haze in the evening. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms through the night.
Saturday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Mixed swell northwest 3 feet and east 6 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet in the evening. SWell east 6 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. SWell east 6 feet. Showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. SWell east 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. SWell east 6 to 7 feet. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 6 to 7 feet. SWell east 7 to 8 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 925 Am Hst Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Strong high pressure far north northeast of the area along with a nearly stationary surface trough northwest of kauai, will support increasing east to southeast winds over the coastal waters through next week. An upper-level disturbance west of the area will allow for locally heavy showers and a slight chance of a Thunderstorms through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kailua, HI
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location: 21.42, -157.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 232000
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
1000 am hst Fri feb 23 2018

Synopsis
Moist and unstable conditions will persist across portions of the
state through the weekend. Southeast winds will focus rainfall
over windward and southeast slopes, though isolated heavy showers
and thunderstorms could pop up anywhere. Drier conditions will
push back over the state early next week as potentially strong
east to east-southeast winds develop.

Discussion
Moist and unstable conditions remain in place this morning,
maintaining a flash flood threat. A deep, nearly stationary mid
to upper level low parked about 850 miles northwest of kauai is
producing an unstable southwesterly flow aloft over the state.

Perceptible water remains elevated in the 1.4 to 2 inch range,
and the overnight soundings continued to reveal a lack of an
inversion. The upper trough is also supporting a surface trough
several hundred miles west of the islands. The combination of the
surface trough and a very strong area of high pressure sitting
1,700 miles to the northeast of the state is generating a fairly
strong east to southeast winds locally. The strongest easterly
winds are found around the big island, then quickly veer out of
the southeast elsewhere. The deepest moisture is focused near the
big island this morning, especially across southeast slopes of the
puna and kau districts. Active showers are also observed across
the eastern tip of maui and windward molokai, while morning
conditions are rather quiet elsewhere.

The flooding threat will continue today. With the deepest moisture
remaining over the eastern end of the state, the east to
southeast winds will provide the highest chance for rainfall along
east and southeast facing slopes of the big island and maui.

Also, the winter weather threat will persist on the high summits
of the big island. Across the rest of the state, moisture will be
lower but still great enough to support heavy shower and
thunderstorm development. This threat will be most pronounced this
afternoon as the land heats up.

The flood threat gradually diminishes tonight and Saturday. The
mid to upper level low will drift slightly westward, allowing some
warming aloft that will decrease instability. Meanwhile, the gfs
and ECMWF models depict an area of active thunderstorms continuing
just south and southwest of the big island and deeper moisture
gradually decreasing over the eastern end of the state. Somewhat
wet conditions should persist across windward and southeast
slopes, and enough instability should remain to trigger an
isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm just about anywhere in the
afternoon. The big question, which remains unanswered at this
time, is whether or not the flash flood watch will be needed,
given the border line conditions that will be in place. We will
take a hard look at this today as additional data are considered.

On Sunday, a negatively tilted upper level trough rotating around
the western low passes over kauai. This trough may bring a second
round of heavy shower and thunderstorm potential to the western
islands of kauai and oahu by Sunday afternoon. Model solutions on
the intensity of this trough remain less certain at this point. We
expect Sundays weather impact details to come into focus as the
time period gets closer.

The long range forecast for next week shows the high pressure
system moving westward with higher pressure building in over the
state. Downward moving subsident air under this ridge will
stabilize the air mass and produce a drying trend. However, east
to southeast wind speeds will also increase across all islands
from Monday night into Tuesday morning. These elevated wind speeds
are forecast to continue through the rest of the week.

Aviation
High pressure northeast of the state and low pressure to the
west, will keep an east to southeast flow in place across the
island chain through tonight. A moist and unstable airmass will
remain over the island chain, with the most unsettled weather
expected across the eastern islands, particularly the big island,
where widespread MVFR and isolated ifr conditions are expected.

Across the smaller islands daytime heating will likely lead to
some shower development over interior and leeward areas, along
with some brief MVFR and ifr conditions.

Airmet sierra remains in place for mountain obscuration across
e to SE facing slopes of the big island. Light icing will be
possible in the thick mid and high clouds around the state.

Marine
Abundant moisture along with an unstable airmass will allow for
some isolated thunderstorms over the coastal waters through the
weekend.

Strong high pressure far to the north northeast of the state will
result in breezy east to southeast winds over the coastal waters
through this weekend. Even stronger winds are expected early next
week as the high moves a bit closer to the state allowing the
pressure gradient to tighten over the area. A small craft advisory
is posted for a vast majority of the coastal waters due to the
breezy winds and associated wave heights exceeding 10 feet in some
areas.

A long and rather broad fetch of easterly winds on the south side
of the high will continue to produce advisory level surf along
east facing shores through the weekend and on into early next
week. Latest guidance from the wavewatch model indicates surf
could reach warning levels as early as Monday night or Tuesday.

This combined with high astronomical tides could cause some
coastal inundation issues along some low lying areas exposed to
east.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch until 6 pm hst this evening for all islands.

High surf advisory until 6 am hst Monday for east facing shores
of kauai, oahu, molokai, maui, and the big island.

Winter storm warning until 6 pm hst this evening for big island
summits.

Small craft advisory until 6 am hst Monday for kauai northwest
waters-kauai windward waters-oahu windward waters-kaiwi channel-
maui county windward waters-alenuihaha channel-big island
windward waters-big island leeward waters-big island southeast
waters.

Discussion... Wroe bohlin
aviation... Morrison
marine... Burke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 1 mi65 min 74°F8 ft
MOKH1 - 1612480 - Mokuoloe, HI 5 mi63 min Calm G 1.9 74°F 75°F1018.1 hPa
51210 5 mi39 min 74°F7 ft
OOUH1 - 1612340 - Honolulu, HI 12 mi57 min NE 6 G 8 76°F 75°F1017.1 hPa
51211 16 mi69 min 75°F4 ft

Wind History for Mokuoloe, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kaneohe, Marine Corps Air Station, HI4 mi65 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F66°F76%1017.3 hPa
Daniel K Inouye International Airport, HI13 mi46 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F64°F62%1017.5 hPa
Wheeler Air Force Base / Oahu, HI18 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 mi70°F68°F93%1018.2 hPa
Oahu, Kalaeloa Airport, HI21 mi46 minNE 510.00 miFair77°F66°F69%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from HNG (wind in knots)
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SE5S54CalmSW3SW5W3SW3CalmCalmW5CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmW3N4
1 day agoE7SE8NE6NE8NE9E5E5E4E6E4E65E44E54E4NE5NE7E7E5E6E6
G15
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2 days ago6NE7NE6NE5N4CalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N4

Tide / Current Tables for Hanauma Bay, Oahu Island, Hawaii
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Hanauma Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:05 AM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:13 AM HST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:51 AM HST     0.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:36 PM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:18 PM HST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:32 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:55 PM HST     1.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.20.90.70.60.60.60.60.70.70.70.60.40.30.100.10.20.50.91.21.51.81.8

Tide / Current Tables for Honolulu, Honolulu Harbor, Oahu Island, Hawaii
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Honolulu
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:05 AM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:51 AM HST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:47 AM HST     0.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:37 PM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:01 PM HST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:33 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:50 PM HST     1.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.31.10.80.60.50.50.50.60.70.70.60.50.30.1-0-0.1-00.20.50.91.21.51.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Molokai, HI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.