Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kailua, HI

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 6:26PM Sunday September 23, 2018 1:52 AM HST (11:52 UTC) Moonrise 6:00PMMoonset 5:10AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ116 Kaiwi Channel- 946 Pm Hst Sat Sep 22 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Isolated showers in the morning.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Isolated showers after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday night..South winds 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..South winds 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots in the morning becoming variable less than 10 knots, then becoming northeast 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 946 Pm Hst Sat Sep 22 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. An area of low pressure several hundred miles northwest of kauai will gradually move east through the rest of the weekend, allowing the winds to weaken and shift to the southeast Sunday through middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kailua, HI
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location: 21.42, -157.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 230648
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
848 pm hst Sat sep 22 2018

Synopsis
A developing area of low pressure several hundred miles northwest
of kauai will lift northeastward Sunday through early next week,
dragging a weakening front and band of deep tropical moisture
eastward toward the islands and weakening the trade wind flow
across the state. The front is expected to stall out just west of
the area during the middle of next week, with high pressure then
building north of the islands late next week bringing a return of
more typical trade wind weather.

Discussion
Currently at the surface, a 1031 mb high is centered around 1775
miles northeast of honolulu. Meanwhile, a developing area of low
pressure is located around 650 miles northwest of kauai, with a
surface trough extending southward along 168 169w. Light to
moderate trade winds continue to hold in place across the island
chain this evening. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy
skies over kauai, with partly to mostly cloudy conditions over the
other islands with cloud cover most prevalent over windward
locales, as well as leeward sections of the big island. Main
short term concern centers on the timing and progression of deep
tropical moisture associated with a trough of low pressure west of
the state into the island chain.

A developing area of low pressure several hundred miles northwest
of kauai will track northeastward through the first half of next
week, weakening the downstream ridge well northeast of the island
chain. This will result in a disruption of the trade winds
beginning Sunday and continuing through at least the middle of
next week, with winds becoming light and the steering flow
shifting around to the south and southeast. As a result, daytime
sea breezes and overnight land breezes will likely develop each
day through the middle of next week. The trades are then expected
to return late next week, although there remains some uncertainty
on when this will occur with the ECMWF bringing trade winds back
into the area by Thursday, while the GFS is a bit slower showing
the trades returning late Friday. In addition to the light winds
though much of next week, muggy conditions will return as well,
with dewpoints climbing well into the 70s statewide.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the forecast during the early
to middle part of next week, as the ECMWF and GFS continue to
offer up differing solutions with respect to the advection of deep
tropical moisture associated with a surface trough into the
western end of the island chain. The individual ECMWF and GFS runs
have remained fairly consistent over the past several days, with
the GFS more aggressive in the timing and progression of the deep
tropical moisture into the island chain than the ecmwf. Given the
uncertainties in the forecast will take a blended forecast
approach and show increasing rain chances over the western islands
during the first half of the work week, with more of a convective
shower pattern over the eastern end of the state. The model
solutions continue to differ during the mid to late next week time
frame, with the GFS showing deep tropical moisture lingering over
the majority of the island chain through much of the work week,
while the ECMWF keeps the deepest moisture over the western
islands and shows it exiting back to the west of the state
Thursday through next Saturday. Due to the continuing uncertainty
in the forecast, will follow a blended forecast approach once
again and keep the highest chances for rain over the western
islands through the middle of the work week and show a return of
trade winds by the end of the work week.

Aviation
High pressure far northeast of hawaii will maintain gentle trade
winds overnight into Sunday morning. As a low pressure trough to
our west slowly approaches the state, winds will veer toward the
southeast with seabreezes developing across many areas Sunday
afternoon.

Clouds and passing showers will remain mostly confined to the
windward and mauka areas overnight, with isolated brief MVFR
conditions possible. Otherwise,VFR will prevail. Some clouds
and a few showers will form over interior leeward areas along
the seabreezes Sunday afternoon, but again only isolated MVFR
conditions will be possible withVFR prevailing.

No airmets are currently in effect, and none are anticipated
overnight.

Marine
An area of low pressure several hundred miles northwest of kauai
will continue to slowly move east through the rest of the weekend
and into early next week. This will allow the winds to further
weaken and shift to the southeast tonight through middle of next
week. This will also bring an increase of locally heavy showers
mainly across the western hawaiian waters throughout next week.

Surf will remain below advisory levels along all shores through the
middle of next week. Rough, short-period surf along east facing
shores will gradually decline into early next week as the winds
ease and shift. A north-northwest is expected late next week,
which may increase surf to near advisory level along north facing
shores. Small southwest and south swells will give surf along
south facing shores a small boost through middle of next week, but
remain well below advisory level.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
None.

Discussion... Jelsema
aviation... Jacobson
marine... Kino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 1 mi52 min 80°F6 ft
MOKH1 - 1612480 - Mokuoloe, HI 5 mi76 min E 7 G 13 79°F 82°F1013 hPa
51210 5 mi52 min 80°F5 ft
51207 5 mi28 min 80°F5 ft
OOUH1 - 1612340 - Honolulu, HI 12 mi40 min 78°F 81°F1012.6 hPa
51211 16 mi112 min 81°F3 ft
51212 25 mi52 min 81°F3 ft

Wind History for Mokuoloe, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kaneohe, Marine Corps Air Station, HI4 mi1.9 hrsE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F72°F79%1011.8 hPa
Daniel K Inouye International Airport, HI13 mi59 minNE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F70°F76%1012.8 hPa
Oahu, Kalaeloa Airport, HI21 mi59 minNE 410.00 miFair75°F68°F79%1014 hPa

Wind History from HNG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7E7E9--E8E8--E8
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NE7E8NE9E7NE7E10
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1 day ago4E8E8
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NE96NE11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE6NE6NE6NE8NE8NE7NE8E7E6654E5E5E6

Tide / Current Tables for Hanauma Bay, Oahu Island, Hawaii
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Honolulu, Honolulu Harbor, Oahu Island, Hawaii
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Molokai, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.