Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poipu, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:50PM Saturday November 18, 2017 4:07 AM HST (14:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:03AMMoonset 6:31PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ113 Kauai Channel- 315 Am Hst Sat Nov 18 2017
Today..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. North swell 4 feet. Scattered showers through the day.
Tonight..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. North swell 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Sunday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. North swell 11 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. North swell 10 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. North swell 10 feet. Isolated showers through the day.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. North swell 10 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. North swell 7 to 9 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 4 to 6 feet. North swell 8 to 10 feet. Isolated showers.
PHZ100 315 Am Hst Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Low pressure will stall far to the north-northeast of the waters over the weekend into Monday, then lift northeastward through midweek as high pressure rebuilds to the north.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poipu, HI
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location: 21.88, -159.46     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 181330
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
330 am hst Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure to the north of the islands will drop south over the
next couple of days, dragging a weak cold front southward through
the islands today through Sunday. The front will be accompanied
by a band of clouds and showers, with showers favoring northern
slopes and coasts. After the front comes through, cool north and
northwesterly winds are expected tonight through Monday. The low
to our north will move away from the islands Tuesday and
Wednesday, and trades will gradually return. A large, strong high
pressure area to our north is expected to bring breezy to windy
trades for thanksgiving day and next Friday.

Discussion
Currently a stacked area of low pressure, surface and aloft, is
located around 775 miles to the north of honolulu. Meanwhile, a
weak cold front is located around 125 miles north of kauai.

Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies
across the smaller islands, while mostly clear conditions prevail
over the big island. Radar imagery shows some scattered showers
in and around maui county, as well as over windward sections of
kauai. Elsewhere, rain free conditions are in place for the time
being. Main short term concern revolves around rain chances over
the next few days.

Today through Tuesday,
the stacked low to the north of the state will slow its
progression as it drops southward today, then stall around 600
miles to the north-northeast of honolulu tonight. The low will
then edge eastward Sunday through Monday, before lifting
northeastward and away from the island chain Monday night and
Tuesday. A weak cold front will also shift southward in the island
chain today, moving through kauai around noon, through oahu late
this afternoon, maui county tonight and through the big island on
Sunday. Northerly winds will increase to moderate levels over the
western islands today, with lighter northerly winds allowing for
sea breezes across maui county and the big island. The north-
northwesterly winds will then overspread maui county tonight and
the big island on Sunday. Light to moderate north-northwesterly
flow will continue Sunday night, shift more northerly on Monday,
then shift around to the northeast on Tuesday.

As for sensible weather details, showers will favor northern
slopes and coasts through the period, with an increase in showers
expected in association with the front as it moves down the island
chain today through Sunday. Some showers will spill into leeward
locations from time to time as well, particularly as the front
moves through. In addition, some afternoon evening shower
development will be possible in leeward areas of maui county and
the big island today due to sea breeze enhancement.

Following the frontal passage, cooler weather will prevail, with
surface dewpoints dropping into the 50s in many areas, making it
feel very comfortable across the entire island chain.

Summit level winds continue to bounce between advisory and warning
levels, but they should increase solidly back to warning levels
later this morning as the upper low moves closer. Winds at the
summits should then begin to trend down Sunday night and Monday as
the upper low begins to open up and shift eastward and away from
the island chain.

Tuesday night through Friday,
a strong area of high pressure will build eastward well to the
north of the state, increasing the gradient across the islands and
shifting the winds back into a more typical trade wind direction.

The trades are expected to increase to moderate levels on
Wednesday, with breezy to windy conditions then expected for
thanksgiving day and Friday. With the returning trades, a more
typical windward and mauka shower pattern is expected to resume
across the island chain.

Aviation
High pressure to the north will produce northerly winds over the
islands today. A cloud band associated with a weak cold front,
currently north of the islands, will move through kauai and oahu
today and through maui tonight. This band will produce broken
cloud ceilings and scattered showers with brief periods of MVFR
conditions, especially over mountains and along northwest through
northeast slopes of the smaller islands.

No airmets are in effect. Airmet sierra for tempo mountain
obscurations are possible over kauai or oahu later today.

Marine
Winds have trended down across the waters and will gradually shift
out of the north today as a frontal boundary and low pressure
dive southward across the region. Guidance supports this more
northerly flow holding through the weekend and into next week as
low pressure associated with this frontal boundary stalls north of
the state. Winds should remain below advisory levels through the
weekend, but the rather unusual wind directions will result in
different areas of terrain acceleration, such as through the
kaulakahi channel today and tonight and the hamakua coast and
near south point on Sunday. Moderate trades return Tuesday and
Wednesday next week.

Surf along east facing beaches will gradually trend down over the
weekend as the trades relax and the flow shifts out of the north as
the aforementioned front drops south into the area and seas continue
to lower.

Surf along north facing shores will remain up through much of the
period due to overlapping northerly swells moving through the local
waters. The anomalous pattern across the northern pacific featuring
storms diving southward across the eastern pacific from the
aleutians gulf of alaska to near the islands due to a blocking
ridge that remains established over the central pacific is
projected to continue through much of next week.

The latest analysis showed a strong pressure gradient between 1039
mb high pressure centered near the aleutian islands around 45n and
1008 mb low centered several hundred nautical miles north of the
islands. Persistent strong- to gale-force northerly flow locked
in between these two synoptic features focused toward the local
area over the past couple of days will translate to the next large
northerly swell filling in through the second half of the weekend
and into the upcoming week. Provided the proximity of this
generation source fetch to the local area, no significant timing
or swell magnitude differences are depicted between the ecmwf-wave
and wavewatch iii solutions as this source moves through the
islands.

The north (350 deg) swell will begin to fill in tonight, peak
Sunday into Monday before temporarily trending down Tuesday into
Wednesday. The ECMWF solution is a bit more bullish with the low
dropping farther south and depicts a secondary peak late Monday
through Monday night. The overnight package will support a blend
of these two solutions to express uncertainty. Surf along north
facing shores will near warning levels (potentially exceed warning
levels on kauai) around the peak Sunday, then likely hold through
Monday night above advisory-levels (15 ft faces) before easing
Tuesday into Wednesday.

As the swell is peaking along north facing shores Sunday into
Monday, the progressive pattern across the northeast pacific is
projected to continue as another gale- to storm-force low emerges
over the gulf of alaska near kodiak island and tracks south-
southeastward across the northeast pacific Monday through Tuesday. A
reinforcing northerly swell associated with this source is expected
to fill in by Wednesday night, likely translating to surf nearing
the warning mark along north facing shores once again by
thanksgiving day. This source will hold through the second half
of the week before easing into the weekend.

Spectral densities at the offshore buoys south of the islands are
showing some energy out of the south-southwest within the 15 to
17 sec bands. This is from recent activity across the southern
pacific near new zealand and the tasman sea. Surf along south
facing shores will reflect this and likely hold through the
weekend at small levels. Similar sources are expected into next
week that will keep the surf from going flat along southern
exposures.

See the latest collaborative nearshore and swell forecast for oahu
for more details on the surf at:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
51208 29 mi46 min 80°F6 ft
51201 - Waimea Bay, HI (106) 73 mi36 min 77°F5 ft

Wind History for Nawiliwili, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lihue, Lihue Airport, HI9 mi75 minW 710.00 miFair65°F63°F93%1012.4 hPa
Kekaha, Pacific Missile Test Facility Barking Sands, HI21 mi72 minN 10 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F62°F76%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from HLI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE8W6N9NW4NE11NE10NE9NE11NW6NW10NW6NW6NW5NW14W7W5CalmN5W4W3W9W7W4
1 day agoNE19NE19NE17NE18NE17
G25
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2 days agoNE17NE18NE17NE18NE22NE16NE24
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Tide / Current Tables for Hanamaulu Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii
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Hanamaulu Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:42 AM HST     New Moon
Sat -- 03:49 AM HST     2.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:51 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:02 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:36 AM HST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:28 PM HST     0.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:53 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:31 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:02 PM HST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.41.722.11.91.61.30.90.60.40.40.50.60.80.90.90.80.60.30.10.10.10.4

Tide / Current Tables for Hanalei Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii
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Hanalei Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:42 AM HST     New Moon
Sat -- 02:38 AM HST     2.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:10 AM HST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:17 PM HST     0.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:53 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:31 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:36 PM HST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.92.12.121.61.20.80.50.40.40.60.80.9110.80.50.30.10.10.20.50.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kauai, HI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.