Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poipu, HI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 6:04PM Friday October 19, 2018 1:43 PM HST (23:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:28PMMoonset 2:17AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ113 Kauai Channel- 927 Am Hst Fri Oct 19 2018
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet in the morning then 2 feet or less. North swell 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell north 5 feet and south 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated showers through the night.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell north 5 feet and south 4 to 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Mixed swell north 4 feet and south 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Mixed swell north 4 feet and south 5 feet. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Mixed swell north 3 feet and south 5 feet. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight.
Monday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 feet. Mixed swell north 3 feet and south 4 to 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Mixed swell north 3 to 5 feet and south 3 to 4 feet. Isolated showers.
PHZ100 927 Am Hst Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface ridge north of the islands will remain weak today, then gradually strengthen from Saturday into next week. An upper-level disturbance will bring the threat of locally heavy showers and Thunderstorms the next couple of days, especially near the big island.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poipu, HI
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location: 21.88, -159.46     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxhw60 phfo 192002
afdhfo
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
1002 am hst Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis
A weak trade wind flow will lead to localized afternoon sea
breezes today. A disturbance aloft reaching the islands today will
trigger spotty afternoon showers, some heavy from kauai to maui,
while deeper moisture in place over the big island will fuel
widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The
disturbance aloft will slowly pass over the state tonight through
the weekend as trade winds gradually increase. Heavy showers and a
few thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the big
island. Stronger trade winds will focus clouds and showers over
windward slopes next week, though portions of the state could
experience an increase in rainfall mid week.

Discussion
A continued weak and increasingly unstable trade wind flow is
expected today. Trades will remain in the gentle to locally
moderate range today, thanks to a stalled front 500 miles north of
kauai that is weakening the local pressure gradient. A mid- to
upper-level trough that has been overhead will be reinforced by a
shortwave aloft that is currently approaching kauai. The
atmosphere remains moist and unstable over the big island, where
the overnight sounding showed no inversion and precipitable water
(pw) values of around 2 inches, and the upper tough is maintaining
a shield of high clouds over the eastern half of the island
chain. Moisture decreases significantly toward the western half of
the island chain, where pw values are near seasonal normal. Expect
sea breezes to trigger spotty showers, some briefly heavy, over
interior sections and terrain from kauai to maui this afternoon.

More extensive shower and thunderstorm development is forecast
this afternoon on the big island, where a flash flood watch is in
effect.

The unstable trade wind flow will persist through at least
Saturday for much of the state. Unstable conditions will persist
along and east of the mid- to upper- level trough, which will
creep eastward, and building high pressure to the northwest of
the state will drive a gradual increase in the trade winds. The
deepest moisture will remain near the big island and perhaps maui
county. This will place the greatest chances for heavy showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern half of the state, though kauai
and oahu will have some threat of thunderstorms tonight and early
Saturday. With the trades on the rise, windward areas will have
the highest chances of rainfall. Leeward areas are expected to
see some convection in the afternoon, especially on the big island
and maui.

Building trade winds and increasing stability are expected on
Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF still differ on the evolution of the
mid- to upper-level trough, so there is some uncertainty. The gfs
continues to push the feature east of the state Sunday night,
which would lead to a stable trade wind flow with mainly windward
rainfall Sunday night. The ECMWF has been trending toward the gfs
solution, but it lags the weakening trough near the big island
for another day. The forecast favors the gfs, with the limited
thunderstorm threat on the big island ending on Sunday evening
and a typical trade wind flow expected late.

Moderate to breezy trade winds will likely settle over the
islands on Monday and Tuesday. The next feature of interest is an
area of disturbed weather in the tropics, currently located about
1,000 miles southeast of the big island. This feature could brush
the state with enhanced rainfall sometime Tuesday through
Thursday, with higher chances of rainfall to the south.

Aviation
Expect relatively light winds today into the overnight hours.

Winds will be light enough to set up daytime sea breeze night
land breeze scenario. With the pressure gradient gradually
tightening from through the day Saturday expect increasing trade
winds.

There will be isolated MVFR conditions in windward and mauka areas
today. The windward mauka MVFR conditions will be more likely
through the day Saturday with heavier showers and possible
thunderstorms with the upper level trough dragging slowly over
the island chain. The big island will have the most rain with
possible thunderstorms creating widespread MVFR conditions.

No airmets are currently in effect, though mountain obscurations
are possible this afternoon with showers and low ceilings.

Mountain obscurations are more likely Saturday into Sunday,
especially for the big island.

Marine
The arrival of a significant long-period S swell is anticipated
today and tonight, with surf along S facing shores of all islands
building to advisory levels by Saturday. A high surf advisory has
been issued, with the swell expected to remain elevated for several
days. Peak surf heights with this long-lived swell could approach
the south shore high surf warning threshold (15 feet) over the
weekend, and buoy observations will be monitored to fine tune the
forecast. Near shore buoys exposed to the south swell are showing
the longer period wave energy increasing this morning.

Elsewhere, surf heights will remain below advisory levels for at
least the next several days, although a new short-period nnw
swell is expected today. See the oahu surf discussion (srdhfo) for
additional details.

Light to locally moderate trade winds are expected through tonight,
with a gradual increase in NE trade winds Saturday as high pressure
builds NW of the islands. Winds should remain below small craft
advisory (sca) speeds through Sunday, with moderate to locally fresh
trade winds potentially requiring a SCA for the windier zones
early to mid next week. Uncertainty with this portion of the
forecast is due to forecast models increasing the low-level
pressure gradient as a tropical disturbance passes S of the
islands.

A persistent upper-level trough over the area will develop a cut-
off low this weekend, maintaining unstable conditions that will
bring the threat of locally heavy showers and or thunderstorms,
especially over big island waters.

Hfo watches warnings advisories
High surf advisory from 6 pm this evening through Monday afternoon
south facing shores of all islands.

Flash flood watch through Saturday afternoon for big island.

Discussion... Wroe
aviation... Chevalier
marine... Foster


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWWH1 - 1611400 - Nawiliwili, HI 8 mi43 min E 8 G 11 80°F 1014.1 hPa (-2.0)
51208 29 mi37 min 81°F6 ft
51201 - Waimea Bay, HI (106) 73 mi31 min 78°F4 ft

Wind History for Nawiliwili, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lihue, Lihue Airport, HI9 mi50 minENE 710.00 miFair82°F69°F65%1014.1 hPa
Kekaha, Pacific Missile Test Facility Barking Sands, HI21 mi47 minW 610.00 miFair85°F69°F59%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from HLI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE12NE13NE14N12N11N75NW3W5W6W6W5W6W7--W8W9W6N6NE6NE8NE7NE7
1 day agoNE12NE13NE12NE13NE11NE11NE14NE10NE10NE12NE11NE11NE10NE9NE8NW5N5N8N94NE11NE10NE10NE11
2 days agoNE14NE14NE12NE14NE13--NE12NE13NE14NE13NE12NE13NE13NE13NE14NE11NE13NE14NE13NE11NE15NE15NE14NE14

Tide / Current Tables for Port Allen, Hanapepe Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii
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Port Allen
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Fri -- 12:38 AM HST     0.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:17 AM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:59 AM HST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:36 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:16 PM HST     1.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:28 PM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:10 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:20 PM HST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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110.90.80.70.60.50.60.711.21.41.51.51.31.10.80.60.40.30.30.40.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Nawiliwili, Hawaii (2)
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Nawiliwili
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:47 AM HST     1.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:16 AM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:56 AM HST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:35 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:25 PM HST     1.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:27 PM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:09 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:17 PM HST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.110.90.80.70.60.70.81.11.31.61.71.71.51.30.90.60.40.30.30.50.70.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kauai, HI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.