Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:18 PM Moonrise 2:35 PM   Moonset 2:36 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

AMZ085 Atlantic S Of 22n W Of 70w Including Approaches To The Windward Passage- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - NE to E winds 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Tonight - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wed - NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wed night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Thu - NW to N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Thu night - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Sat night - NE to E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

AMZ005
No data

FXCA62 TJSJ 162059 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 459 PM AST Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS

A seasonal weather pattern with some troughiness aloft will prevail through early next week. However, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase substantially across the forecast area by midweek of next week onwards as a deep-layered trough impacts our area, leading to a return to a wet and unstable weather pattern and increasing the flooding threat across the forecast area.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday...

Afternoon convection across the interior and western Puerto Rico will gradually diminish through the early evening hours due to the loss of daytime heating. Following this, weather conditions will remain tranquil tonight through Friday morning, with some brief passing showers across portions of the local waters. Some of this activity may reach eastern Puerto Rico and portions of the USVI.

The chance for shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase somewhat by Friday afternoon into Saturday as a weak mid- level trough crosses over the northeastern Caribbean. At lower levels, a surface high-pressure system across the central Atlantic will induce more east-southeast winds from tomorrow (Friday) through the forecast period.

Under the influence of troughiness aloft and moisture carried by east-southeast winds, shower, and thunderstorm development is expected across west and northwest Puerto Rico each afternoon.
Additionally, frequent passing showers are possible across eastern areas of Puerto Rico as well as the US Virgin Islands. Consequently, there is an increasing potential for localized urban and small- stream flooding.

The east-southeast winds will promote 925 mb temperatures to be well above normal for this time of year. The high temperatures, combined with higher moisture content, could cause heat indices to exceed 100°F in coastal and urban areas, possibly reaching above heat advisory criteria. Additionally, the GEOS-5 model indicates a broad area of suspended Saharan dust particulates approaching the Leeward Islands, with the highest concentrations reaching the local islands by this weekend. Therefore, in areas with limited showers, hot and hazy skies can be expected for the rest of the short-term forecast.

LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 530 AM AST Thu May 16 2024/

A surface high pressure system extending from the central and northeast Atlantic will maintain southeasterly winds across the region during the initial phase of the period. These winds will aid in transporting patches of tropical moisture to the region, and therefore increase the likelihood of shower development each day, but particularly in the afternoon. Most showers should be focused across the interior and northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico and and in isolated areas around the San Juan metro area.
There will be plenty of sunshine and hot and humid conditions through the weekend and into early next week. These conditions will yield increasing heat indices, posing a limited to elevated heat threat for the northern coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the adjacent islands including the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Moisture convergence and instability is however expected to gradually increase by late Sunday and throughout the forecast period as a deep layered trough is forecast to move across the western Atlantic and become amplified west of the region while moving eastward. Recent model guidance continued to suggest, the strongest divergence and most favorable side of the deepening TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) and its associated jet stream will reach the forecast area from Monday and continue to affect the region through Thursday. With increasing instability aloft along with colder temperatures and abundant tropical moisture convergence,precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecast to exceed the climatological normals by over 2 inches. Consequently, a wet period is still forecast for the islands and coastal waters, with the increasing probability of showers and thunderstorm development with areas of widespread rains likely, especially during the late morning and afternoon hours. This so far anticipated period of excessive and heavy rainfall will increase the risk of urban and river flooding from Tuesday through the rest of the period. Stay tuned as we will continue to monitor how this unfolds and make adjustments to the long term forecast if needed.

AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals through the forecast period. Mostly VCTS/VCSH expected at TJBQ/TJPS thru 16/22z. Winds will continue from the east around 10 kt, becoming light and variable overnight due to land breeze variations.

MARINE

A surface high pressure across the western and central Atlantic will result in light to moderate easterly winds for the upcoming days.
Therefore, tranquil marine conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms could move from western Puerto Rico into the coastal waters each day.

BEACH FORECAST

There is a low rip current risk today across all area beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The risk will likely remain low through the weekend. However, life-threatening rip currents can often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties and piers. In addition, with possible heat indices between 102-107 degrees or higher, along the local beaches, heat exhaustion will be possible with prolonged exposure. Stay hydrated!

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.

Abrahams Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:19 AM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:25 AM EDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:51 PM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:06 PM EDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Abrahams Bay, Mayaguana Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Sandy Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:35 AM EDT     0.78 meters High Tide
Fri -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:59 AM EDT     0.40 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 02:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:10 PM EDT     0.74 meters High Tide
Fri -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:12 PM EDT     0.43 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sandy Point, North Caicos Island, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Miami, FL,