Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Suárez, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 6:49PM Saturday May 25, 2019 7:12 AM AST (11:12 UTC) Moonrise 12:01AMMoonset 11:19AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Su�rez, PR
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location: 23.03, -64.23     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 250831
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
431 am ast Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis A moderate east to southeast wind flow will prevail
across the region. The presence of above normal moisture content
will support shower and thunderstorms development, particularly
along the interior and western puerto rico each afternoon.

Enhanced shower and thunderstorms activity is expected on
Monday Tuesday and Thursday under favorable conditions aloft.

That said, the potential for urban and small stream flooding
remains elevated.

Short term Today through Monday...

a relatively rainy next couple of days are expected. The latest
guidance and observations indicate that the available moisture will
be above normal and the mid and upper levels will have some weak
divergence which provides some instability. Also, there will be the
diurnal heating and local effects to consider. For that reason,
there are numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
forecast every day this weekend and early next week. Today, looks to
be the driest day, and by that I mean less rainfall coverage
expected, because it will still be rainy in the afternoon across the
northwestern quadrant of pr as well as portions of the san juan
metro, central pr and north central pr.

The precipitable water today at 12z will be above normal, but
decreasing to normal values by this afternoon, which may be why the
rainfall is not expected to be more widespread. However, the
precipitable water for Sunday at 18z is forecast to be above 1.8
inches and on Monday above 2.1 inches. This increase in moisture
will combine with relatively weak but the persistence divergence in
the mid and upper levels and local effects to cause a larger
coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the daytime hours,
especially starting in the late morning to early afternoon hours.

At this time, the more significant showers and thunderstorms are
expected over puerto rico, especially interior to western pr, but
the other areas of pr can also expect occasional significant showers
and isolated thunderstorms. The usvi however may be limited to
scattered showers with the possibility of an occasional but brief
heavy shower on Sunday and Monday. That said, the moisture will
increase significantly on Monday and the official forecast is drier
than the model guidance since it seemed like the guidance was rather
bullish on the rainfall forecast, but, given the amount of moisture
that may be moving in, it is not surprising for the models to
forecast that much rain. We will make adjustments in the forecast if
necessary. Bottom line though, is that there may be a wet start to
the week with good coverage of rainfall across puerto rico, but
today we expect mainly locally induced showers, while the usvi may
be limited to scattered showers with some heavier showers possible,
but relatively brief.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday...

recent model guidance, which has been fairly consistent, suggests
that a wet pattern will dominate through most of the long-term
forecast period. This is the result of high tropical moisture
advection into the region with pw model estimated values ranging
from 2.12 inches on Tuesday morning to 1.70 inches on Friday
afternoon. In addition, two independent southeasterly propagating
mid to upper level short-wave troughs will approach the region,
resulting in favorable upper level conditions. The peak of this
activity is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday and then on
Thursday when each trough is forecast to move across hispanola,
which places the associated divergence pattern over the forecast
area. If models are correct, these conditions will support
enhanced shower and thunderstorms development across the local
islands and waters through the end of the workweek. Conditions are
to improve on Saturday, but afternoon convection remains
possible.

Aviation Vfr conds expected in the morning, through
25 16z. Shra tsra will result in vcsh vcts conds and brief MVFR
conditions at tjmz tjbq after 25 17z. Bkn to ovc between fl020-040
expected with this activity. Light and variable winds through
25 14z, turning from the east at 10-15 kt with sea breeze variations
and occasional gusts.

Marine Tranquil marine conditions with seas up to 5 feet are
expected to prevail across the regional waters through at least
Monday, when a northerly swell is forecast to spread across the
atlantic waters and local passages. A moderate east to southeast
surface wind flow peaking at 10-15 knots will hold across the
region. There is a moderate risk for rip currents for beaches
along the north coast of puerto rico, vieques, culebra, and saint
thomas. Elsewhere, a low risk will continue.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 88 78 89 77 40 40 40 40
stt 88 79 87 77 20 30 30 30

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... None.

Vi... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Ja
long term... .Icp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.