Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Suárez, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 5:42PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 12:45 AM AST (04:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:14PMMoonset 11:32PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Su�rez, PR
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location: 23.03, -64.23     debug

Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 140230
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1030 pm ast Tue nov 13 2018

Update Showers and thunderstorms affected st. Croix during the
evening hours, leaving between 1-2 inches of rain. The flood
advisory was let to expire at 1015 pm as mostly light rain was
observed over the western portions of the islands. However, a
flash flood watch remains in effect for all the islands through at
least Thursday. Winds have shifted from the east to east-southeast
and new showers with isolated thunderstorms were developing across
southeastern puerto rico. This pattern is expected to continue
overnight into Wednesday morning, with the best moisture content
moving across the usvi and eastern pr through early Wednesday
afternoon. Although there will be a lull in activity in some
areas, showers and thunderstorms could develop at any time over
the regional waters and over the islands as the upper level
trough continues to interact with the tropical wave.

Aviation update MainlyVFR conditions expected early in the
forecast period. However, shra -tsra over the eastern and
southern waters of the islands could move at times over the local
terminals. Shra tsra is expected to increase from 14 12z-18z
across the usvi eastern pr terminals, this could cause tempo
MVFR ifr. Latest 14 00z tjsj upper air sounding indicated e-ese
winds at 9-26 kt blo fl050.

Marine No change from previous discussion. Seas should continue
between 6-8 feet for much of the week across the atlantic and
caribbean waters and portions of the passages. Winds turn more
east-southeast tonight through Wednesday. Gusty winds and locally
higher waves expected with thunderstorm activity.

Prev discussion issued 548 pm ast Tue nov 13 2018
synopsis... An active tropical wave interacting with an upper
level trough will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the region during the next few days. Unstable
weather conditions are expected to continue through at least
Friday. A mid to upper level ridge will build from the northeast
during the weekend, promoting fair weather conditions through
early next week.

Short term... Today through Thursday...

a flash flood watch is in effect through at least Thursday
afternoon for puerto rico and the u.S. Virgin islands. Scattered
convection across the usvi and eastern pr left between 1-2 inches
of rain today. Minor urban flooding was reported today over
portions of eastern pr. An area of strong thunderstorms persisted
over the offshore caribbean waters just to the south and east of
st. Croix, some of this activity is expected to affect st. Croix
through the evening hours. Breezy conditions will continue with
winds ranging between 15-25 mph, with the higher winds remaining
across the offshore waters.

As the wave axis continues to approach the region from the east
and cross the islands on Wednesday... Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase overnight into Wednesday
morning across the usvi and the eastern portions of pr. Based on
the latest guidance, the heaviest shower activity is expected
between early Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening across
the islands. Rainfall accumulations in general should range
between 1-4 inches with isolated higher amounts through the short
term period.

Long term... Friday through Tuesday... (issued at 538 am ast tue
nov 13 2018)
the tropical wave is expected to exit the region by
Friday as high pressure ridge will build north and east of the
region while increasing the east to northeast trade winds.

Although a gradual drying trend is expected by Friday and into the
weekend, expect a surge of moisture in the brisk easterly trade
winds to move across the region and bring periods of cloudiness
and periods of quick passing trade winds showers to the islands
and coastal waters. Afternoon convection each day will be focused
mainly over parts of the interior and downstream of EL yunque
rainforest around the san juan metro, as well as on the west end
and downwind of the u.S.V.I. By then most of the activity should
be in the form of streamers.

Over the weekend and through the early part of the following week,
the mid to upper level ridge is forecast to build across the region
resulting in continued erosion of low level moisture and the suppressing
of widespread afternoon convective development. The atlantic surface
high pressure ridge is to also build north of the region and tighten
the local pressure gradient. This will lead to increasing easterly
trade winds through early next week resulting in breezy conditions.

Showers and thunderstorm development if any, should be then limited
to the overnight and early morning hours, followed by the more typical
afternoon convection each day.

Aviation... Quick passing shra isold tsra will affect the local
terminal sites through 14 03z. Mvrf conds are occurring as a
result of +shra tsra these are expected to persist through the
next TAF issuances. Llvl winds are out of the east to northeast
ranging from 15 to 25 kts below fl150, with higher gusts when
shra tsra pass by.

Marine... Hazardous seas are expected through the weekend across
most of the regional waters. Seas will range overall between 6-8
feet across the atlantic and caribbean waters as well across the
anegada passage. Winds up to 25 knots are possible with the
passage of an active tropical wave through at least Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase overnight through late
Wednesday night across the regional waters, this will result in
periods of frequent lightning as well as gusty winds and locally
higher seas.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 78 89 77 88 80 60 40 50
stt 78 86 78 86 80 60 50 40

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... High rip current risk through Thursday afternoon for culebra-
north central-northeast-northwest-san juan and vicinity-
southeast-vieques-western interior.

Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for central
interior-culebra-eastern interior-mayaguez and vicinity-
north central-northeast-northwest-ponce and vicinity-san
juan and vicinity-southeast-southwest-vieques-western

Small craft advisory from 8 pm Wednesday to 8 am ast Friday for

High rip current risk from 6 am ast Wednesday through Thursday
afternoon for central interior.

Vi... High rip current risk through Thursday afternoon for st croix.

Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for st croix-
st.Thomas... St. John... And adjacent islands.

Am... Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for coastal waters
of southwestern puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of
northern usvi and culebra out 10 nm-coastal waters of
southern puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of southern
usvi vieques and eastern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm Wednesday to 8 am ast Friday for
coastal waters of southern puerto rico out 10 nm.

High rip current risk from 6 am ast Wednesday through Thursday
afternoon for coastal waters of southern puerto rico out 10

Small craft advisory until 6 pm ast Saturday for anegada passage
southward to 17n-atlantic waters of puerto rico and usvi
from 10 nm to 19.5n-caribbean waters of puerto rico from 10
nm to 17n.

Small craft advisory until 8 am ast Friday for coastal waters of
northern puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of northern
usvi and culebra out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm ast Friday for coastal waters of
southern usvi vieques and eastern puerto rico out 10 nm-
mona passage southward to 17n.

Small craft advisory until 6 am ast Wednesday for coastal waters
of northwestern puerto rico out 10 nm.


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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (23,6,7,8)
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.