Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Suárez, PR
May 18, 2024 1:06 PM AST (17:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:42 AM Sunset 6:47 PM Moonrise 2:48 PM Moonset 2:29 AM |
AMZ083 Atlantic From 22n To 25n Between 60w And 65w- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
Tonight - NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Wed - W to nw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Wed night - W to nw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Scattered showers.
Thu - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Thu night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Fri - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Sat - N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Sat night - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
AMZ005
No data
No data
FXCA62 TJSJ 180816 AFDSJU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 416 AM AST Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Hazy skies due to suspended Saharan dust and hot weather conditions are expected through the rest of the weekend. However, shower development is also anticipated each afternoon across western portions of Puerto Rico and downwind of the local islands. A wet and unstable weather pattern continues to be expected by midweek of next week as a deep- layered trough approaches from the west and combines with tropical moisture.
SHORT TERM
Today through Monday...
Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies prevailed across the region overnight into the early morning hours with few passing showers noted moving over the regional waters and passages. Little or no shower activity was observed or reported over land areas so far.
Minimum low temperatures were upper 70s to low 80s along the coastal areas and in the mid 60s to low 70s In higher elevations and valleys. Winds were calm to light and variable.
A sfc high pressure over the north central Atlantic will slowly move eastward over the next few days while a sfc low pressure system develops and crosses the west Atlantic while lifting northeastward across the west and central atlantic during the rest of the weekend.
By late Sunday and Monday, another Sfc low pressure exits the eastern seaboard and moves into the western Atlantic. This forecast pattern will help to maintain the local winds mainly from the east southeast to southeast during the next several days with limited moisture advection during the period. In addition, a weak mid to upper level short wave trough is forecast to cross the region today through Sunday then weaken just northeast of the islands by Monday.
This may help enhance a few passing showers during the overnight and early morning hours. For the rest of the weekend however, hot and hazy conditions are forecast to prevail with the chance of diurnally and locally induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms possible across central interior and west to northwest Puerto Rico.
Mainly fair weather and sunny skies are expected in and around the U.S. Virgin Islands but a brief isolated afternoon showers cannot be ruled out. A moderate concentration of Saharan dust will continue to cross the region later today and continue through the weekend into Monday.
Overall...A typical rainfall pattern is expected for the rest of the weekend into Monday...with only locally and diurnally induced afternoon convection each day mainly across central interior and western Puerto Rico. Isolated showers are forecast for the period elsewhere including around the U.S. Virgin Island where mostly sunny but hazy skies will prevail. The highest concentration of Saharan dust is expected by Sunday into Monday. This should aid in limiting afternoon convection across the region but will enhance the hot and hazy Conditions.
Expected Impacts...Some of the locally induced afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity may lead to ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas and possibly minor urban and small stream flooding due to locally heavy rains accompanying isolated.
thunderstorm activity. Excessive daytime heating may lead to the issuance of heat advisories each day, particularly across the coastal and urban areas. Stay tuned and Stay Hydrated!
LONG TERM
Tuesday to Saturday...
A seasonal pattern will continue through Tuesday as a high pressure across the surface of the central Atlantic allows a diurnal trade wind pattern to prevail. However on Wednesday onward through the weekend, the development of a mid to upper-level trough moving across the Caribbean basin eastward towards Puerto Rico will begin to cause tropical moisture to rise up from the ITCZ and spread across the region. A surface low will also begin to develop due to this feature, appearing to gain structure by Friday north of the region. Current model guidance has the dirtiest part of the upper- low remaining over Hispanola through this event, however the influx of moist air with high precipitable water values and southerly flow will cause unstable, wet conditions for the local islands. Mostly all sections of the islands have a chance to see some impressive rainfall during this event. Thunderstorms are likely as well due to strong winds aloft allowing ventilation to occur.
The anticipated period of excessive and heavy rainfall will therefore increase the risk of urban and river flooding especially from Tuesday onwards with the most favorable impacts being Wednesday through Thursday but activity could continue throughout the end of the work week so tuned and be prepared, as we will continue to monitor how this pattern unfolds and make the necessary adjustments to the long term forecast.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
VFR durg prd VCSH at TJSJ/TISX/TIST til 18/14z. Mstly Sct lyrs nr FL025
FL040
SKC ABV.Isold shra ovr regional waters en route btw islands. L/lvl wnds FM ESE 5-10 kts BLO FL100 then backing and bcmg fm W while incr w/ht abv FL180. Sfc wnd calm to lgt/vrb bcmg fm SE 12-15 kts with local sea breeze variations and hir gusts aft 18/14z.
MARINE
A surface high pressure across the central and northeast Atlantic will result in light to moderate easterly winds through the weekend.
Tranquil marine conditions will therefore prevail throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms could move from western Puerto Rico into the coastal waters each day.
BEACH FORECAST
There is a low rip current risk for today across all area beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The risk will likely remain low through the weekend. However, life-threatening rip currents can often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties and piers. In addition, with possible maximum heat indices between 102-107 degrees or higher, along the local beaches, heat exhaustion will be likely with prolonged exposure. Stay hydrated!
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.
VI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 416 AM AST Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Hazy skies due to suspended Saharan dust and hot weather conditions are expected through the rest of the weekend. However, shower development is also anticipated each afternoon across western portions of Puerto Rico and downwind of the local islands. A wet and unstable weather pattern continues to be expected by midweek of next week as a deep- layered trough approaches from the west and combines with tropical moisture.
SHORT TERM
Today through Monday...
Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies prevailed across the region overnight into the early morning hours with few passing showers noted moving over the regional waters and passages. Little or no shower activity was observed or reported over land areas so far.
Minimum low temperatures were upper 70s to low 80s along the coastal areas and in the mid 60s to low 70s In higher elevations and valleys. Winds were calm to light and variable.
A sfc high pressure over the north central Atlantic will slowly move eastward over the next few days while a sfc low pressure system develops and crosses the west Atlantic while lifting northeastward across the west and central atlantic during the rest of the weekend.
By late Sunday and Monday, another Sfc low pressure exits the eastern seaboard and moves into the western Atlantic. This forecast pattern will help to maintain the local winds mainly from the east southeast to southeast during the next several days with limited moisture advection during the period. In addition, a weak mid to upper level short wave trough is forecast to cross the region today through Sunday then weaken just northeast of the islands by Monday.
This may help enhance a few passing showers during the overnight and early morning hours. For the rest of the weekend however, hot and hazy conditions are forecast to prevail with the chance of diurnally and locally induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms possible across central interior and west to northwest Puerto Rico.
Mainly fair weather and sunny skies are expected in and around the U.S. Virgin Islands but a brief isolated afternoon showers cannot be ruled out. A moderate concentration of Saharan dust will continue to cross the region later today and continue through the weekend into Monday.
Overall...A typical rainfall pattern is expected for the rest of the weekend into Monday...with only locally and diurnally induced afternoon convection each day mainly across central interior and western Puerto Rico. Isolated showers are forecast for the period elsewhere including around the U.S. Virgin Island where mostly sunny but hazy skies will prevail. The highest concentration of Saharan dust is expected by Sunday into Monday. This should aid in limiting afternoon convection across the region but will enhance the hot and hazy Conditions.
Expected Impacts...Some of the locally induced afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity may lead to ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas and possibly minor urban and small stream flooding due to locally heavy rains accompanying isolated.
thunderstorm activity. Excessive daytime heating may lead to the issuance of heat advisories each day, particularly across the coastal and urban areas. Stay tuned and Stay Hydrated!
LONG TERM
Tuesday to Saturday...
A seasonal pattern will continue through Tuesday as a high pressure across the surface of the central Atlantic allows a diurnal trade wind pattern to prevail. However on Wednesday onward through the weekend, the development of a mid to upper-level trough moving across the Caribbean basin eastward towards Puerto Rico will begin to cause tropical moisture to rise up from the ITCZ and spread across the region. A surface low will also begin to develop due to this feature, appearing to gain structure by Friday north of the region. Current model guidance has the dirtiest part of the upper- low remaining over Hispanola through this event, however the influx of moist air with high precipitable water values and southerly flow will cause unstable, wet conditions for the local islands. Mostly all sections of the islands have a chance to see some impressive rainfall during this event. Thunderstorms are likely as well due to strong winds aloft allowing ventilation to occur.
The anticipated period of excessive and heavy rainfall will therefore increase the risk of urban and river flooding especially from Tuesday onwards with the most favorable impacts being Wednesday through Thursday but activity could continue throughout the end of the work week so tuned and be prepared, as we will continue to monitor how this pattern unfolds and make the necessary adjustments to the long term forecast.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
VFR durg prd VCSH at TJSJ/TISX/TIST til 18/14z. Mstly Sct lyrs nr FL025
FL040
SKC ABV.Isold shra ovr regional waters en route btw islands. L/lvl wnds FM ESE 5-10 kts BLO FL100 then backing and bcmg fm W while incr w/ht abv FL180. Sfc wnd calm to lgt/vrb bcmg fm SE 12-15 kts with local sea breeze variations and hir gusts aft 18/14z.
MARINE
A surface high pressure across the central and northeast Atlantic will result in light to moderate easterly winds through the weekend.
Tranquil marine conditions will therefore prevail throughout the forecast period. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms could move from western Puerto Rico into the coastal waters each day.
BEACH FORECAST
There is a low rip current risk for today across all area beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The risk will likely remain low through the weekend. However, life-threatening rip currents can often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties and piers. In addition, with possible maximum heat indices between 102-107 degrees or higher, along the local beaches, heat exhaustion will be likely with prolonged exposure. Stay hydrated!
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.
VI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002.
AM...None.
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