Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 1:48 PM   Moonset 1:49 AM

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AMZ080 Central Bahamas Including Cay Sal Bank- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - E winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Wed - Atlc exposures, variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wed night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thu - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat night - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

AMZ005
No data

FXUS62 KMFL 171823 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 223 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A broad mid-level ridge will build over the Florida Peninsula today and hang around through Saturday, helping to stabilize the atmosphere and lead to mostly dry weather in the short term period.
However, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible for coastal locations mainly on the Atlantic side as the sea breeze boundary pushes inland in the afternoon and early evening hours today and tomorrow. Additionally, while the broad high pressure and presence of a dry layer in the mid-levels should inhibit storm growth, there will remain the chance for a couple of stronger storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail along the sea breeze.

Since the weather will be a bit more stable over the next few days, the main headline will be the abnormally hot conditions for this time of year. The setup responsible for sparking this heat wave is both the presence of a shortwave trough over the Gulf states that will be advecting through the Southeast states and the high pressure over the Florida Peninsula. This pattern produces a warm and moist south-southwest flow over the region while sinking air under the high pressure also leads to warming, and this combination is establishing the heat wave. In addition, high pressure typically leads to less cloud cover, which would allow for extra diurnal surface heating.

With all that said, heat indices today are expected to range around 103-107F and thus a Heat Advisory is in place for only Miami-Dade today with heat indices expected to exceed 105F for multiple hours.
General high temperatures for today are expected in the low to mid 90s. For Saturday, temperatures are expected to rise further due to reasons stated above into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices up to 107-100F, so another Heat Advisory will be possible for tomorrow if trends continue and could spread to multiple counties. Overall, whether advisories or warnings are issued or not, anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or take cooling breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Increased rain chances return for Sunday and early next week as an upper level short wave approaches and then crosses the area, and a surface front very slowly crosses the state of Florida Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected especially during the afternoon and early evening hours, with locally heavy rain possibly leading to a few instances of urban flooding across the metro. A few storms may be on the strong to severe side, with damaging wind gusts from localized downbursts being the main threat.

Upper levels ridging will try to build in early to mid next week, however the mid and upper level trough will linger just to the east of the peninsula. While PoPs decrease somewhat, daily chances of afternoon showers/storms will remain in the forecast each day, primarily driven by diurnal sea-breeze convection in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of next week with highs in the low to mid 90s through Monday. As the flow becomes more easterly the east coast metro will get a reprieve of a few degrees towards the middle of next week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, while middle 90s will continue over interior and SW FL. Overnight lows will remain very warm in the 70s to around 80 through Monday and then lows will retreat towards normal values through the middle of next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through this 18Z TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible at the east coast terminals between 18 to 00Z but expecting this to be primarily an isolated threat. Winds are expected out of a W-SW direction today with the east coast shifting to the SE in the afternoon with an expected sea breeze.
Tomorrow, winds will shift out of the S/SSE, but KAPF will eventually shift WSW with the gulf breeze.

MARINE
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Mainly benign conditions today and over the weekend with light to moderate southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 81 94 80 93 / 0 30 10 60 West Kendall 77 97 78 95 / 0 20 10 50 Opa-Locka 79 96 80 94 / 0 30 10 60 Homestead 79 94 80 93 / 0 20 10 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 80 91 / 0 30 20 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 94 80 92 / 10 30 20 70 Pembroke Pines 80 97 80 96 / 0 30 10 70 West Palm Beach 76 94 77 91 / 10 40 20 80 Boca Raton 78 94 78 93 / 10 40 20 70 Naples 79 92 80 91 / 0 10 20 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ073-074-173-174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

Clarence Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:45 AM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:59 AM EDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:16 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:34 PM EDT     1.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clarence Harbor, Long Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Nurse Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:14 AM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:24 AM EDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:46 PM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:04 PM EDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nurse Channel, Bahamas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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