Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 7:31 PM Moonrise 2:02 AM   Moonset 1:26 PM

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PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 817 Am Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Today - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 18 seconds.Tonight - SW winds 10 kt, shifting to W to nw late. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Fri - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Fri night - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming sw to W 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 14 seconds. Sat - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 12 seconds. Sat night - SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 11 seconds. Sun - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 14 seconds. Sun night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 16 seconds. Mon - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 16 seconds. Mon night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 16 seconds.

FXUS64 KMAF 021549 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1049 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Once again, efficient moisture return and convective outflow from yesterday's storms has shoved the dryline back up against the western high terrain. However, the dryline will mix all the way into the western Low Rolling Plains and San Angelo's area this afternoon thanks to an upper trough ejecting from the Rockies into the north- central Plains. This keeps our weather significantly quieter than yesterday with most of the area just seeing a typical sunny, hot, and dry day. On the heels of this trough, it will help to push a cold front into the area today, and could start to nose into the northern Permian Basin in the late afternoon/early evening time frame. How this front evolves Thursday evening/night will play a large role in how Friday shakes out. That being said, the front and dryline interactions this evening will likely fire off a few storms, with a storm or two possible for Scurry/Mitchell counties. More importantly, the convective outflow from these storms would help push the front into our area and many of the high resolution models take the front all the way to the Pecos Valley.

With uncertainty in how far the front makes it and how much it retreats/mixes north/east Friday, there is also a fair amount of uncertainty in both high temperatures (in the Permian Basin) and where any storms set up. For now, the thinking is a few more storms could fire off along the dryline or front, primarily across the far eastern Permian Basin. More details will likely come once it's determined what tonight's front will do.

-Munyan

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A potentially active weekend is ahead of us with the threat of more severe weather and flooding for portions of the area. Deep low level moisture will have returned to the area by Saturday morning with dewpoints >60F east of the higher terrain. At the same time, a cold front will be making its way south across the TX PH reaching our CWA boundary with LUB around mid morning. The front will slow its forward progress with daytime heating and height falls ahead of an approaching shortwave. As we reach peak heating by mid afternoon Saturday thunderstorms will develop along and behind the cold front.
It's still a little far out in time to know where the front will be, but models are suggesting convective initiation somewhere across the Permian Basin. There will be plenty of instability and shear for storms to become severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. PWATs will be abnormally high for early May suggesting a threat for heavy rain and flooding, especially if storms train along the front.

We could see some lingering clouds and showers Sunday keep tempertures down to around normal. Zonal flow aloft along with several storm systems passing to our north next week will mean a return to very dry and hot conditions. It's looking more likely we could see temperatures in the 100s across the Trans Pecos and Big Bend by mid week. Break out the sunscreen and swimsuits, summer is about here!

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis puts the dryline just west of KMAF, mixing east. We may pop a few cu at KMAF before the dryline passes, but otherwise few clouds expected. Cold front progression overnight is still up in the air, but latest NAM suggests it'll make it through KMAF/KHOB/KINK at least. NAM tries to bring in low clouds, but the NBM holds off, and so will we.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 93 61 87 62 / 0 10 20 20 Carlsbad 90 55 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 96 65 92 67 / 0 0 20 10 Fort Stockton 93 59 92 65 / 0 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 80 57 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 88 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 84 49 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 92 60 88 64 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 92 60 90 65 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 93 57 94 65 / 0 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.

La Paz
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Thu -- 02:02 AM MST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:38 AM MST     0.66 meters High Tide
Thu -- 05:45 AM MST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:23 AM MST     -0.08 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 01:25 PM MST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:41 PM MST     0.75 meters High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 PM MST     Sunset
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