Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Redford, TX
May 4, 2024 7:47 AM CST (13:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:24 AM Sunset 7:32 PM Moonrise 3:18 AM Moonset 3:32 PM |
PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 1223 Am Pdt Sat May 4 2024
Today -
Tonight - W winds 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft late. Period 14 seconds.
Sat - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Period 14 seconds.
Sat night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Period 14 seconds.
Sun - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 17 seconds.
Sun night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 17 seconds.
Mon - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 16 seconds.
Mon night - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 16 seconds.
Tue - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Period 17 seconds.
Tue night - SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Period 16 seconds.
Area Discussion for - Midland/Odessa, TX
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FXUS64 KMAF 041141 AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 641 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
* Significant severe weather outbreak expected this afternoon and tonight, especially across the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, and Stockton Plateau.
* Very large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, heavy rain, and flash flooding could accompany any storm that develops today.
After the round of severe storms yesterday that impacted portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, we have one more round to get through today before the pattern starts to settle down. Unfortunately, the set-up today favors a significant severe weather outbreak across a large portion of the region, with scattered supercells capable of all severe hazards progged to develop by early to mid-afternoon, persisting into early evening before gradually congealing into multicell clusters and growing upscale into a quasi-linear convective system that will move across the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Edwards Plateau tonight.
Early this morning, the dryline has advanced all the way westward to the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas, with dewpoints in the mid-50s to lower 60s along and east of a line from Artesia to the I-10/I-20 Split to Marfa and Castolon. Mid-level moisture is also on the increase ahead of a shallow shortwave currently located near Baja, with this shortwave progged to eject northeastward and move over the region tonight.
Today's severe weather will be driven in part by both the aforementioned dryline and ascent associated with the approaching shortwave and attendant speed max, but also an approaching cold front that will move through the region by lunchtime today. This front is currently located over the northern Panhandle, and will continue its southward trek, entering the northern Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico around 11 AM CDT/10 AM MDT, then proceeding to slow as it battles against heating to the south of the boundary. The location of the front and dryline will put much of the area solidly in the warm sector, with the initial round of convection by the 2 PM-3 PM CDT time frame expected to initiate along this boundary in an environment characterized by instability on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg and 0-6km shear around 40-45kt.
CAMs have all been consistent in indicating the development of scattered supercells across Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, with additional development off of the dryline and higher terrain across the Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau.
Supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes look to be the primary storm mode until around 6 PM CDT when outflow boundaries yield upscale growth into multicell clusters and increasing shear due to the low-level jet favors continued upscale growth into a QLCS as storms progress eastward through the late evening. The initial round of storms are progged to exit the area to the east prior to midnight, however storm chances linger through the night as multiple rounds of storms are possible as the aforementioned shortwave moves over the region and the front continues its southward progression coincident with the retreating dryline.
While storms will continue into the night, the potential for severe convection will begin to wane, with the threat of heavy rain and flooding/flash flooding continuing as precipitable water values around 2 standard deviations above normal are anticipated.
Storm chances linger into Sunday, but gradually shift east and south through the day, with a lingering low (10-40%) risk of severe storms, mainly over Terrell county during the afternoon in closer proximity to the diffuse frontal boundary.
The severe threat today cannot be overstated. The parameters today rival the most active days we experienced during the benchmark severe weather season in 2019. Not only are large hail and tornadoes possible, but very large/significant hail is expected with any storm that develops, especially during the afternoon, and the SPC has outlined the central and southeastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau as being at risk for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. It is imperative that everyone remains vigilant today, and all should ensure they have multiple ways to receive warnings and forecast information, and have a plan to seek shelter, no matter where they may be.
Given the approaching cold front, temperatures today across the northern tier of the forecast area are likely to struggle to make it out of the 70s, with much of the rest of the area warming into the 80s and lower 90s, with the hottest temperatures along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend where triple-digits are possible once again. Lows tonight will be mild in the mid-50s to mid-60s, followed by a cooler, post-frontal day on Sunday with highs in the 70s and 80s for most.
JP
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Any rain should be out of the entire area by Sunday night. With southeasterly surface flow and a mix of clouds, lows Sunday night will be above normal for early May, with 50s across most of the SE NM plains, northern Permian Basin, and higher elevations, and 60s elsewhere. As the upper low and trough responsible for this weekend's rain departs to the east, a large negatively-tilted trough lifting out of the central and northern Great Plains on Monday will transition mid to upper flow to quasi-zonal. This will allow the dryline that has been centered over the Permian Basin to mix well east of the area, with decreasing dewpoints and gusty westerly winds developing each afternoon Monday through Thursday.
As a large positively-titled trough develops from the Great Lakes to central Rocky Mountains, a cold front will be pushed south through the area sometime during the day Thursday. Pronounced CAA occurs behind the front, dropping highs back below average for Friday and even farther below average Saturday, with lows closer to normal Friday night and below average Saturday night.
Under quasi-zonal flow and subtle building ridging into Thursday, highs Monday through Thursday will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, with mid to upper 80s and 90s for most, and triple digit readings reached near the Rio Grande, with lows likewise 5 to 10 degrees above average in the 60s aside form the higher elevations and northernmost parts of the SE NM plains and Permian Basin.
Highs in the 90s will extend farther northwest along the Pecos River Tuesday and Wednesday. Due to a cold front moving through sometime during the day on Thursday, highs over most of the SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin will be cooler than Wednesday and in the 80s, however 90s will persist to the south of the cold front aside from 80s in the higher elevations. Thursday night lows will drop into 50s for most of the area with exception of near the Rio Grande where lows will remain in the 60s. Friday features highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s over northernmost parts of the SE NM plains and Permian Basin to 80s elsewhere, other than 90s and above lingering along the Rio Grande. Friday night could see not only see lows in the 50s for most, but also appearance of lows in the 40s for northernmost Lea Counties and the highest elevations of the Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau. Under continued CAA, easterly flow, and increased clouds Saturday, highs even cooler than Friday in the 70s are forecast, aside from 80s near the Rio Grande. Saturday night will feature even more widespread 50s farther south and 40s across northernmost areas and highest elevations, with 60s confined to near the Rio Grande.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Transient MVFR ceilings around 1500-2000ft have developed across the area early this morning, with low ceilings expected to persist through mid-morning before gradually improving to VFR between 15Z-17Z. The main focus this forecast remains scattered severe thunderstorms initiating around 20Z-21Z, impacting area terminals through around 00Z-03Z before exiting to the east. Have included VCTS mention for all but CNM, and forecasts will be amended based on trends. Large hail, erratic gusty winds, and lightning are all possible, as well as IFR conditions in heavy rain. MVFR ceilings look to return late in the period, with another round of thunderstorms possible around 05/06Z. E/SE winds will be intermittently gusty through the period with gusts to 20-30kt, stronger and variable near storms.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
With min RH below critical 15% level, poor overnight recovery, and mostly sunny skies west of the dryline, near critical fire weather conditions are possible for westernmost portions of the area this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon during any gusty or erratic winds, with lightning in any storms also posing risk for fire starts.
Dryline moves east of the entire area by Monday afternoon, resulting in decreasing dewpoints, clearing skies, gusty westerly winds, and widespread critical min RH for all of the area each afternoon into Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions are likely next week from the Sacramento Foothills and SE NM plains into most of West Texas. However, eastward extent of critical fire weather conditions will depend on westward extent and amount of rainfall this weekend. With recent wetting rains over the eastern Permian Basin, fire potential there should be limited. As a cold front moves south through the area at the end of this week, cooler temperatures, better overnight recovery and increased moisture, as well as increased clouds will all limit fire risk into the beginning of next weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 79 59 77 65 / 80 80 30 10 Carlsbad 83 59 85 58 / 30 30 0 10 Dryden 89 66 80 67 / 30 60 50 0 Fort Stockton 91 62 82 64 / 50 60 40 0 Guadalupe Pass 81 56 80 58 / 10 20 0 0 Hobbs 77 56 77 60 / 70 50 10 10 Marfa 88 53 85 51 / 10 20 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 82 60 78 65 / 70 70 20 10 Odessa 83 61 78 66 / 70 60 20 10 Wink 89 62 83 64 / 50 40 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 641 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
* Significant severe weather outbreak expected this afternoon and tonight, especially across the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, and Stockton Plateau.
* Very large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, heavy rain, and flash flooding could accompany any storm that develops today.
After the round of severe storms yesterday that impacted portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, we have one more round to get through today before the pattern starts to settle down. Unfortunately, the set-up today favors a significant severe weather outbreak across a large portion of the region, with scattered supercells capable of all severe hazards progged to develop by early to mid-afternoon, persisting into early evening before gradually congealing into multicell clusters and growing upscale into a quasi-linear convective system that will move across the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Edwards Plateau tonight.
Early this morning, the dryline has advanced all the way westward to the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas, with dewpoints in the mid-50s to lower 60s along and east of a line from Artesia to the I-10/I-20 Split to Marfa and Castolon. Mid-level moisture is also on the increase ahead of a shallow shortwave currently located near Baja, with this shortwave progged to eject northeastward and move over the region tonight.
Today's severe weather will be driven in part by both the aforementioned dryline and ascent associated with the approaching shortwave and attendant speed max, but also an approaching cold front that will move through the region by lunchtime today. This front is currently located over the northern Panhandle, and will continue its southward trek, entering the northern Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico around 11 AM CDT/10 AM MDT, then proceeding to slow as it battles against heating to the south of the boundary. The location of the front and dryline will put much of the area solidly in the warm sector, with the initial round of convection by the 2 PM-3 PM CDT time frame expected to initiate along this boundary in an environment characterized by instability on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg and 0-6km shear around 40-45kt.
CAMs have all been consistent in indicating the development of scattered supercells across Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, with additional development off of the dryline and higher terrain across the Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau.
Supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes look to be the primary storm mode until around 6 PM CDT when outflow boundaries yield upscale growth into multicell clusters and increasing shear due to the low-level jet favors continued upscale growth into a QLCS as storms progress eastward through the late evening. The initial round of storms are progged to exit the area to the east prior to midnight, however storm chances linger through the night as multiple rounds of storms are possible as the aforementioned shortwave moves over the region and the front continues its southward progression coincident with the retreating dryline.
While storms will continue into the night, the potential for severe convection will begin to wane, with the threat of heavy rain and flooding/flash flooding continuing as precipitable water values around 2 standard deviations above normal are anticipated.
Storm chances linger into Sunday, but gradually shift east and south through the day, with a lingering low (10-40%) risk of severe storms, mainly over Terrell county during the afternoon in closer proximity to the diffuse frontal boundary.
The severe threat today cannot be overstated. The parameters today rival the most active days we experienced during the benchmark severe weather season in 2019. Not only are large hail and tornadoes possible, but very large/significant hail is expected with any storm that develops, especially during the afternoon, and the SPC has outlined the central and southeastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau as being at risk for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. It is imperative that everyone remains vigilant today, and all should ensure they have multiple ways to receive warnings and forecast information, and have a plan to seek shelter, no matter where they may be.
Given the approaching cold front, temperatures today across the northern tier of the forecast area are likely to struggle to make it out of the 70s, with much of the rest of the area warming into the 80s and lower 90s, with the hottest temperatures along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend where triple-digits are possible once again. Lows tonight will be mild in the mid-50s to mid-60s, followed by a cooler, post-frontal day on Sunday with highs in the 70s and 80s for most.
JP
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Any rain should be out of the entire area by Sunday night. With southeasterly surface flow and a mix of clouds, lows Sunday night will be above normal for early May, with 50s across most of the SE NM plains, northern Permian Basin, and higher elevations, and 60s elsewhere. As the upper low and trough responsible for this weekend's rain departs to the east, a large negatively-tilted trough lifting out of the central and northern Great Plains on Monday will transition mid to upper flow to quasi-zonal. This will allow the dryline that has been centered over the Permian Basin to mix well east of the area, with decreasing dewpoints and gusty westerly winds developing each afternoon Monday through Thursday.
As a large positively-titled trough develops from the Great Lakes to central Rocky Mountains, a cold front will be pushed south through the area sometime during the day Thursday. Pronounced CAA occurs behind the front, dropping highs back below average for Friday and even farther below average Saturday, with lows closer to normal Friday night and below average Saturday night.
Under quasi-zonal flow and subtle building ridging into Thursday, highs Monday through Thursday will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, with mid to upper 80s and 90s for most, and triple digit readings reached near the Rio Grande, with lows likewise 5 to 10 degrees above average in the 60s aside form the higher elevations and northernmost parts of the SE NM plains and Permian Basin.
Highs in the 90s will extend farther northwest along the Pecos River Tuesday and Wednesday. Due to a cold front moving through sometime during the day on Thursday, highs over most of the SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin will be cooler than Wednesday and in the 80s, however 90s will persist to the south of the cold front aside from 80s in the higher elevations. Thursday night lows will drop into 50s for most of the area with exception of near the Rio Grande where lows will remain in the 60s. Friday features highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s over northernmost parts of the SE NM plains and Permian Basin to 80s elsewhere, other than 90s and above lingering along the Rio Grande. Friday night could see not only see lows in the 50s for most, but also appearance of lows in the 40s for northernmost Lea Counties and the highest elevations of the Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau. Under continued CAA, easterly flow, and increased clouds Saturday, highs even cooler than Friday in the 70s are forecast, aside from 80s near the Rio Grande. Saturday night will feature even more widespread 50s farther south and 40s across northernmost areas and highest elevations, with 60s confined to near the Rio Grande.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Transient MVFR ceilings around 1500-2000ft have developed across the area early this morning, with low ceilings expected to persist through mid-morning before gradually improving to VFR between 15Z-17Z. The main focus this forecast remains scattered severe thunderstorms initiating around 20Z-21Z, impacting area terminals through around 00Z-03Z before exiting to the east. Have included VCTS mention for all but CNM, and forecasts will be amended based on trends. Large hail, erratic gusty winds, and lightning are all possible, as well as IFR conditions in heavy rain. MVFR ceilings look to return late in the period, with another round of thunderstorms possible around 05/06Z. E/SE winds will be intermittently gusty through the period with gusts to 20-30kt, stronger and variable near storms.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
With min RH below critical 15% level, poor overnight recovery, and mostly sunny skies west of the dryline, near critical fire weather conditions are possible for westernmost portions of the area this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon during any gusty or erratic winds, with lightning in any storms also posing risk for fire starts.
Dryline moves east of the entire area by Monday afternoon, resulting in decreasing dewpoints, clearing skies, gusty westerly winds, and widespread critical min RH for all of the area each afternoon into Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions are likely next week from the Sacramento Foothills and SE NM plains into most of West Texas. However, eastward extent of critical fire weather conditions will depend on westward extent and amount of rainfall this weekend. With recent wetting rains over the eastern Permian Basin, fire potential there should be limited. As a cold front moves south through the area at the end of this week, cooler temperatures, better overnight recovery and increased moisture, as well as increased clouds will all limit fire risk into the beginning of next weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 79 59 77 65 / 80 80 30 10 Carlsbad 83 59 85 58 / 30 30 0 10 Dryden 89 66 80 67 / 30 60 50 0 Fort Stockton 91 62 82 64 / 50 60 40 0 Guadalupe Pass 81 56 80 58 / 10 20 0 0 Hobbs 77 56 77 60 / 70 50 10 10 Marfa 88 53 85 51 / 10 20 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 82 60 78 65 / 70 70 20 10 Odessa 83 61 78 66 / 70 60 20 10 Wink 89 62 83 64 / 50 40 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Tide / Current for La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico (2)
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (hide/show) Help
La Paz
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:48 AM MST 0.14 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 03:18 AM MST Moonrise
Sat -- 05:44 AM MST Sunrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM MST 0.73 meters High Tide
Sat -- 12:36 PM MST -0.00 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 03:32 PM MST Moonset
Sat -- 06:51 PM MST Sunset
Sat -- 07:00 PM MST 0.95 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:48 AM MST 0.14 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 03:18 AM MST Moonrise
Sat -- 05:44 AM MST Sunrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM MST 0.73 meters High Tide
Sat -- 12:36 PM MST -0.00 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 03:32 PM MST Moonset
Sat -- 06:51 PM MST Sunset
Sat -- 07:00 PM MST 0.95 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico (2), Tide feet
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Tucson, AZ,
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