Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 2:59 PM   Moonset 2:38 AM

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PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 839 Am Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Today - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 17 seconds. Tonight - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft in S swell. Period 18 seconds. Sun - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming W to nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 17 seconds. Sun night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 17 seconds. Mon - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Period 13 seconds. Mon night - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Period 13 seconds. Tue - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in sw swell. Period 13 seconds. Tue night - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft in sw swell. Period 13 seconds. Wed - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft in S to sw swell. Period 13 seconds. Wed night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 12 seconds.

PMZ005
No data

FXUS64 KMAF 182144 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 444 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

WV imagery shows an weak, upper-level ridge in place over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon. This, as well as maximum insolation, is allowing for afternoon highs well above normal, perhaps retarded only a bit by increased soil moisture from rain earlier in the week.

Tonight, the ridge moves east of the area, courtesy of a PacNW trough digging southeast, putting the area under southwest flow aloft. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will induce a 40+kt LLJ, keeping the boundary layer mixed, and overnight minimums ~ 6-8F above normal.

Sunday, leeside troughing will increase surface winds across the area, adding a downslope warming component to the mix, and increasing thicknesses to provide the first day this spring of widespread triple-digits outside of the Rio Grande Valley.
Afternoon highs should average ~ 12-14F above normal. This will result in marginal heat advisory conditions in the Davis Mountains/Chisos Basin, as well as lower Brewster County.

Sunday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight as another 40+kt LLJ develops, keeping lows ~ 6-8F above normal.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

As upper level thermal ridging continues Monday through Wednesday, temperatures notably above average continue as well, with triple digit heat in Midland/Odessa arriving ahead of schedule compared to the usual start date of May 31. Monday looks to be the day with the highest heat risk for the entire area.
Strong southerly surface flow will keep lows Monday night nearly 10 degrees above average and mostly in the 60s, with 70s over the Rio Grande, parts of the Stockton Plateau and into the southeastern Permian Basin. As a dryline that sharpened over the weekend continues to set up mostly east of the area, sunny skies will allow for ample diurnal heating considering the stronger solar radiation that occurs during this time of year. 850mb temperatures around 32 to 34 degrees Celsius translate to highs in the 100s for most Monday after the first 100 degree day for many on Sunday. Highs 105+ over the Trans Pecos and 110+ are expected for the Rio Grande, with only higher elevations and places east and west of the Pecos River in the SE NM plains remaining in the 90s. As a trough moves northeast from the Desert SW and passes to the north Monday night and Tuesday, the tightening pressure gradient leading to an increase in westerly downsloping flow maintains highs well above average ahead of a cold front on Wednesday. Increased clouds with the approaching trough limit radiational cooling and keep lows warmer than average and mostly in the upper 60s/low 70s Monday night and similarly Tuesday night.
With Wednesday's cold front, highs decrease but remain 5 to 10 degrees above average with widespread upper 80s and 90s, 100s along the Rio Grande, with lows mainly in the 60s, aside from 50s in the higher elevations, northern parts of SE NM plains, and 70s along the Rio Grande. Temperatures again warm into the end of the week as upper level ridging builds back in following the trough and cold front passage. Only Thursday presents the chance of rain, with a short wave moving through providing additional lift east of the dryline in cooler and more humid air behind the cold front.
However, despite a few storms possible across the far eastern Permian Basin, we are still not expecting rainfall more than a few hundredths of an inch for next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. A 40+kt LLJ will keep winds elevated somewhat overnight, before veering to southwest late Sunday morning a becoming gusty. A few cu are possible invof KMAF, w/bases ~ 8 kft AGL. Otherwise, CAVU conditions expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 68 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 63 100 63 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 68 104 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 67 104 67 104 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 65 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 61 99 60 98 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 55 95 55 96 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 68 101 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 68 102 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 64 105 64 104 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Chisos Basin- Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.

La Paz
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Sat -- 12:52 AM MST     0.22 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 02:37 AM MST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:36 AM MST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM MST     0.60 meters High Tide
Sat -- 12:07 PM MST     0.20 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 02:58 PM MST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:37 PM MST     0.87 meters High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 PM MST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico (2), Tide feet

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