Sunrise 6:47 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 3:59 AM   Moonset 4:38 PM

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GMZ044 Expires:202405051445;;654581 Fzus52 Kkey 050832 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 432 am edt Sun may 5 2024
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz042>044-051445- hawk channel from ocean reef to craig key out to the reef- hawk channel from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out to the reef- hawk channel from west end of seven mile bridge to halfmoon shoal out to the reef- 432 am edt Sun may 5 2024
Today - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers. Tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers. Monday and Monday night - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers. Tuesday - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Tuesday night - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Wednesday - East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Wednesday night - Southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Thursday and Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 432 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis - High pressure over the western north atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes for the next several days. Breezes will tend to peak overnight, followed by lulls in the afternoon. Breezes will turn to the southeast Tuesday through Wednesday as the high loses latitude and flattens over the western north atlantic.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 03 - .
64 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 20 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 9 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 8 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 11 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 9 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 8 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream analysis courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KKEY 050841 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 441 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 A zonally stretched surface high pressure system centered near the Canadian Maritimes reaches southwest to near the Yucatan Peninsula. The gradient along the southern flank of this high supports 15 to 20 knot east-southeasterlies at the Reef. The KBYX radar detects widely scattered showers this morning, a little more coverage than the past several days. The sampled moisture on the 00Z KKEY RAOB has not changed much in 24-hours, however, satellite derived sources suggest better low-level moisture is spreading west-northwest across the Cay Sal Bank. Overnight lows are once again in the upper 70s and dewpoints are now in the lower 70s.

FORECAST
Forecast reasoning for the next few days has not changed appreciably. The pattern is analogous to a typical long duration blow that features low-level moisture undulations in the easterlies. The only difference with this pattern is the depth of the moisture, which will remain very shallow. The moist pockets will deepen to around 800 mb, in contrast to the drier episodes down near 900 mb. Long story short, rain chances will oscillate between near nil and 20% for the next few days.

Around mid-week, forecast soundings and MOS guidance suggest an even drier spell and we advertise dry conditions for Tuesday through at least Wednesday night. This will be in tandem with a turn in the breezes to the southeast as the high pressure system over the western North Atlantic gets squashed to the southeast of Bermuda.

The forecast for next weekend has included depictions of a very late season cold front, although run-to-run and model-to-model consistency has been poor. Climatology is against this fantasy.
More likely is a front stalling to our north and the tropical soup from the western Caribbean bathing the Keys in deepening moisture. Dewpoints will climb into the mid to upper 70s. This will set up a scenario for very good rain chances and potentially some episodes of heavy rainfall. For now, we highlight above normal rain chances into the weekend.

MARINE
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. A Small Craft Advisory may be required tonight for the Straits of Florida. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes for the next several days. Breezes will tend to peak overnight, followed by lulls in the afternoon.
Breezes will turn to the southeast Tuesday through Wednesday as the high loses latitude and flattens over the western North Atlantic.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through Sunday evening. Isolated showers will continue across the region, but the probability of direct impact on one of the terminals is too low to mention in the TAFs. Surface winds will remain from the ESE at 9 to 14 knots, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots at times.

CLIMATE
Despite the limited rainfall coverage, and rather luckily, our office's rain gauge has detected rainfall on 7 of the last 8 days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 85 78 86 78 / 20 20 10 10 Marathon 86 78 86 78 / 20 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Sand Key Lighthouse
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:05 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:19 AM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:54 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sand Key Lighthouse, Sand Key Channel, Florida (2), Tide feet

Boca Grande Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:24 AM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:51 AM EDT     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:58 PM EDT     1.60 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boca Grande Channel, Florida Current, knots

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Key West, FL,