Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cudjoe Key, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:41PM Thursday November 15, 2018 2:51 PM EST (19:51 UTC) Moonrise 1:08PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ032 Bayside And Gulf Side From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge- 1159 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect...
This afternoon..West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, shifting to northwest to north and increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas around 1 foot, building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming very rough. Isolated showers.
Tonight..North winds near 25 knots, with occasionally gusts to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters extremely rough. Isolated showers.
Friday..North winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to near 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. NEarshore waters very rough, becoming a moderate chop late.
Friday night..North to northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday..North to northeast winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday..Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Monday and Monday night..North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cudjoe Key, FL
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location: 24.64, -81.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 151606
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
1106 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Discussion In the middle and upper levels( 700-200 mb), latest
available goes-r satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline
analysis as of 1000 am depicts a developing powerful middle and
upper cyclone over illinois, with an attendant nne-ssw cold
trough axis that extends unusually far south and terminates in
the pacific west of southern mexico. Conversely, and downstream of
that, the aforementioned low pressure is assaulting the northwest
to southeast oriented ridge positioned from western new england
sse to well east of the carolina, and there is a tutt like feature
south of that is becoming more disheveled as it slows down east o
the northern bahamas.

At the surface and in the lower to mid levels(surface to 700 mb),
latest available goes-r satellite imagery overlaid with marine
and land surface observations and surface analysis, as of 1000
am, detail low pressure near charleston sc dragging a cold front
that is now bisecting the keys thence southward to near the
honduran coast. As such the 12z sounding at key west near the time
of fropa. Still illustrated an exceptionally moist moderate to
freshening south to southwest flow from off the surface up to 500
mb. Above that within deep cyclonic flow, winds veer to more
southwest up to 200 mb.

Currently As of 1000 am, skies are partly to mostly cloudy
across the keys island chain and surrounding waters, as the front
is more or less bleeding across the islands from west to east.

Radar detects widely scattered showers confined to the eastern
half of the cwa, with isolated activity across the western half of
the CWA including the dry tortugas. Attm, there are mostly sunny
passage across the western florida straits as well as the offshore
gulf waters and in the southeastern gulf of mexico waters out to
the tortugas. The surface cold front is moving a little more
quickly than expected from west to east. Observations suggest sca
conditions have arrived across the waters north, west and south of
the lower florida keys, with breezy conditions developing across
the lower florida keys. Across the middle and upper florida keys,
northwest winds are averaging 10 to 15 knots except around the
showers.

Short term Rest of today and this evening, expect windy
conditions to develop across the rest of the islands by late this
afternoon across the waters with breezy to windy conditions over
the islands. The strongest winds, 20 to 25 mph will be across the
lower keys, with winds between 15 and 20 mph reaching 20 mph by
later in the afternoon across the rest of the keys. The other
issue is that as 1000-925 mb cold thickness advection begins in
earnest thru the afternoon, should see in situ development so
stratus and strato-fractus upstream of the keys, reintroducing
mostly cloudy skies across the islands. Forecast soundings
continue to ample lower to middle level moisture remaining in
place post-frontally. As such, this will allow development of
widely scattered light rain or showers by afternoon, which may
deliver several hundreths of an inch at best. Have trimmed pops
back to 30 percent, or low chance for rain at any given spot along
the island chain. Cloudy and windy weather will continue this
evening with just isolated sprinkles or light rain showers around.

No other changes on this update cycle.

Marine Sca conditions already occurring at gmz033-035, gmz044,
gmz054-055 & gmz074-075. East of those marine zones, sca
conditions will develop by 22z across the rest of the marine
district. SCA conditions expected across all waters tonight and at
least the first half of Friday. By Friday afternoon, the
shallower waters will have cooled sufficiently, so for gmz031-032
and maybe gmz035, winds and seas should down during the
afternoon, possibly below scec. Another brief surge is possible
Friday night, with scec headlines likely across all waters. Scec
conditions are possible across portions of the waters Saturday
morning, but winds and seas a forecast to let down appreciably
thereafter, with moderate breezes still expected. But, confidence
is low as a another reinforcing high could hike the winds into
headline territory once again through early next week
pre-frontal showers have moved out of the keys. Expect mainlyVFR
conditions this afternoon, with periods of MVFR ceilings. These MVFR
ceilings move into the keys again after 16 00z associated with the
relatively cooler air moving over the still warm gulf waters. Strong
north winds behind the cold front will drive crosswind values near
20 knots today and tonight as wind directions will be normal to the
runways. Winds at fl010 will be 20 to 25 knots through the end of
the forecast period.

Climate On this date in 1916, a tropical storm that developed
in the central caribbean sea acquired extratropical
characteristics over the SE gulf of mexico and moved rapidly
northeast along the entire length of the keys. Sand key recorded
maximum sustained winds of 71 mph, while key west reported maximum
sustained winds of 52 mph with a minimum pressure reading of
29.70".

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory all waters by this afternoon
gmz031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

Public marine fire... Futterman
aviation nowcasts climate... .Chesser
upper air data collection... ... Bt
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 18 mi33 min NNW 16 G 19
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 20 mi33 min E 8.9 G 13 79°F 84°F1014 hPa
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 20 mi61 min NW 12 G 14 78°F 1013.7 hPa (-1.6)72°F
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 25 mi61 min 77°F 1015 hPa (-1.5)68°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 36 mi51 min NNW 8 G 8.9 80°F 82°F1013.7 hPa (-1.9)74°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 42 mi111 min 83°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 43 mi51 min 85°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 43 mi51 min 82°F
BKYF1 48 mi51 min 83°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 49 mi51 min W 5.1 82°F

Wind History for Key West, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Key West Naval Air Station, FL12 mi2 hrsN 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F72°F72%1014.9 hPa
Key West International Airport, FL16 mi58 minNNW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds84°F72°F67%1014.9 hPa
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL24 mi58 minNNW 810.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from NQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12SE10SE9E10SE11SE10SE11SE11----------------NW4NW8N10N15N19
G24
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1 day agoS7SE5E5E5E6E6E9E7------E8--------E8E8SE9E10SE9E11E11E12
2 days agoSE12------------------SE13--SE12SE8--SE10SE9SE9S8SW10SE5S6S10S8

Tide / Current Tables for Gopher Key, Cudjoe Bay, Florida
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Gopher Key
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:27 AM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 09:55 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:27 PM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:36 PM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.61.61.51.41.20.90.70.60.40.40.50.70.91.11.21.21.210.90.80.70.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for No Name Key (northeast of), Florida Current
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No Name Key (northeast of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:24 AM EST     0.24 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:23 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:06 PM EST     0.45 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:28 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:01 PM EST     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.20.20.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.40.40.40.2-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.