Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Key Colony Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:10PM Thursday May 25, 2017 12:53 AM EDT (04:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:35AMMoonset 7:07PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ043 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1031 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect...
Overnight..South to southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters very rough. Winds and seas higher in and near numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots...becoming west to northwest 10 to 15 knots late. Seas 4 to 6 feet...subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters very rough...becoming choppy. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Winds becoming variable 5 to 10 knots. Seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters becoming mostly smooth. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms mainly before midnight.
Friday..Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters mostly smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday through Monday night..East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key Colony Beach, FL
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location: 24.7, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 250238
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
1038 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

Discussion In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest
available IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of
900 pm, detail a well aliened middle and upper level low pressure
system located unusually far south for late may, over western
tennessee. The base of the associated deep cold core trough
associated with this system extends all the way down into the
yucatan peninsula and western cuba. At this hour the keys still
remain beneath the right entrance region and round one of the
convection that moved across the keys and surrounding waters from
west to east is beginning to wane.

At the surface and in the lower to middle levels,(surface to 700
mb), latest IR imagery overlaid with land and marine surface
observations and analysis as of 900 pm, detail a 993 mb surface
low near cincinnati, that is trailing a cold front south thence
southwestwards to bisect the central gulf of mexico. The 00z evening
sounding illustrated a very moist and unstable lower to middle
troposphere, with 45 knots of shear between 0 and 6 kilometers.

Columnar pwat was at an exceptional 2.24 inches, close to miami
which was at 2.02 inches.

Currently As of 900 pm, skies are mostly cloud owing to
multiple layers of cumulus, alto, and cirro cumulus clouds. Key
west and miami radars detect numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms encompassing most of the upper and middle florida
keys and surrounding waters. Some of these showers and storms are
still producing wind gusts around 34 knots, so a large portion of
this area is under a marine warning. Temperatures along the island
chain outside of the rain cooled air are in the upper 70s, but
saturated in the lower and middle 70s where the airmass is cooled
by the convection. C-man stations are recording west winds
between 20 and 25 knots in close proximity to the convection
across the eastern areas, but winds have returned to southwest
only between 10 and 20 knots well to west.

Short term Overnight, although the atmosphere is getting
worked over temporarily, another round of convection will develop
very late tonight, or towards daybreak, as a disturbance in the
flow at 500 mb is now exiting near cancun, and will zip
northeastward. The combination of the 995 mb surface low moving up
the ohio valley and then towards cleveland tomorrow morning with
the surface ridge sliding south thru the florida straits, will
keep a fresh southwest wind flow across the islands once this
first round of convection departs in the next few hours. The next
round of convection will move in from the southwest very late
overnight, probably a few hours on either side of daybreak. Low
temperatures in the middle 70s will occur as temps reach dewpoints
in any convection. Only change on the cycle was to adjust winds
and low temperatures overnight.

Marine Overnight, fresh southwest winds will return behind the
convection before midnight across all of the waters given the
aforementioned gradient. As such a small craft advisory will
remain in place across all waters. Stronger wind gusts will
be likely, in excess of 35 to 40 knots in the stronger showers and
thunderstorms.

Aviation Squally weather this evening as a line of strong
showers and thunderstorms moved across the island terminals,
delivering periods of MVFR ifr conditions. This line has cleared
eyw and will move east of mth by 25 03z. Expect a break in the
shower and thunderstorm activity overnight, and winds should surge
out of the southwest after 25 06z, gusting to around 25 knots.

Have retained the mention of showers in the vicinity returning
Thursday morning, as coverage should increase from west to east.

Episodes of MVFR ifr vis CIGS will be possible within any shower
and thunderstorm activity, but prolonged periods are not expected.

Climate With 0.49 inches of rainfall today at the key west
international airport, this is the wettest day so far this month,
bringing the monthly total to 1.15 inches, or 0.89 inches below
normal. The rainfall record for may 25th is 3.15 inches, which
occurred back in 1937. Rainfall records in key west date back to
1871.

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory overnight for gmz031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

Public marine... Futterman
aviation nowcasts warnings statements... .Futterman fling
upper air social media data collection... ... Dr
visit us on the web at weather.Gov key
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 1 mi53 min S 5.1 G 8.9 78°F 86°F1011.9 hPa (+0.7)
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 16 mi53 min SSW 14 G 16 80°F 84°F73°F
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 39 mi53 min S 8 G 12 80°F 84°F1011.8 hPa
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 44 mi53 min W 11 G 13 79°F 81°F1012.5 hPa
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 44 mi63 min SSW 16 G 18 80°F 1012.9 hPa (+0.7)72°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marathon, Marathon Airport, FL4 mi60 minS 710.00 miFair78°F75°F90%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S96S8SW7
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SE7SE7SE5E5E4E3E3SE5SE66SE8SE7SE6SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Boot Key Harbor, Vaca Key, Florida
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Boot Key Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:28 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:50 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:45 PM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:18 PM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.60.30.40.61.11.622.42.42.31.81.20.5-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.4-00.50.91.31.41.4

Tide / Current Tables for Moser Channel (swingbridge), Florida Current
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Moser Channel (swingbridge)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:22 AM EDT     -2.34 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:08 AM EDT     1.72 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:25 PM EDT     -2.89 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:48 PM EDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-0.8-1.8-2.3-2.2-1.7-0.70.51.41.71.510-1.1-2.2-2.8-2.8-2.2-1.10.31.62.32.52.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.