Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Key Colony Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 7:38PM Monday March 18, 2019 10:04 PM EDT (02:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:14PMMoonset 4:46AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ043 Expires:201903190245;;570322 Fzus52 Kkey 182031 Cwfkey Coastal Waters Forecast For The Florida Keys National Weather Service Key West Fl 431 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2019 Florida Bay...hawk Channel And Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To South Of Dry Tortugas...and The Extreme Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico...including The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Gmz042>044-190245- Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 431 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
.small craft advisory conditions are expected Tuesday...
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy. Numerous showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds near 20 knots, increasing to near 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, building to 3 to 4 feet. West of cosgrove shoal light, seas building to 4 to 6 feet. NEarshore waters rough, becoming extremely rough. Widespread showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, except 4 to 5 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters very rough, becoming rough. Numerous showers.
Wednesday..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers.
Wednesday night..North to northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Thursday..Northwest to north winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters choppy.
Friday..North winds near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..North to northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..East winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key Colony Beach, FL
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location: 24.7, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 181902
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
302 pm edt Mon mar 18 2019

Discussion
A broad high pressure system centered over the plains reaches
southeast to near southern florida. An east-west oriented frontal
boundary is south of the keys, with more defined nodes of low
pressure northeast of the bahamas and west of the yucatan
peninsula. Moderate northeast breezes prevail across the coastal
waters of the florida keys. Temperatures are near 80 with
dewpoints near 70. Skies are cloudy and the kbyx radar detects
widely scattered showers over the straits of florida.

Forecast
The forecast remains on track and no significant changes are
needed this cycle. Conditions quickly go downhill tonight, with
rapidly increasing low level warm air advection, falling mid-
upper level heights, and an impressive indirect circulation
coupled with the right entrance to a strengthening phased jet over
the carolinas. Significant lift, coupled with a warm lower
tropospheric nose and less than ideal ml parcels, lends to a
difficult convective forecast. Nevertheless, rain chances peak on
Tuesday at 90%, which is merely mathematical, and should be
interpreted as it's going to rain. We lowered thunder chances for
the island chain based on the expected southerly displacement of
the baroclinic zone. Rainfall estimates remain between 1.00 and
2.00", however the expected ensemble bullseye is just to our
northeast and just to our southwest. The second major challenge
to the forecast is the short lived gradient depicted Tuesday
evening. If a bead of low pressure can snake eastward along the
relic baroclinic boundary, then a short lived blast of near gale
north- northeasterlies are possible. We have tempered the marine
forecast to 25 to 30 knots, noting that the GFS 1 kft winds at
18z Tuesday are forecast to be near 40 knots. SREF probabilities
for winds greater than 25 knots have decreased over the past 24
hours. Conflicting information, so we have stayed the course. The
mid- upper level trough axis will slide east of the keys Tuesday
night. Rain chances will decrease sharply, accompanied by
diminishing breezes, and a few days of cooler than normal
temperatures. Freshening breezes are expected Thursday night, and
parcels will tend become more maritime tropical by Saturday.

Marine
Fresh to strong northeast breezes are expected tonight through
Tuesday night as low pressure moves eastward along a stalled
frontal boundary over the straits of florida. Northeast breezes
will peak Tuesday afternoon and evening, with a short period of
near gale breezes possible. A few hours of northeast winds 30 to
35 knots are not out of the question. Northeast breezes will
gradually slacken Wednesday through Thursday, followed by
freshening northerly breezes Thursday night.

Aviation
Through the remainder of this afternoon, mid-level broken to
overcast skies around fl090 will persist, with a few low level
clouds around fl017. As the afternoon progresses into evening, low
clouds will increase in coverage, but should remainVFR with
temporary MVFR ceilings possible. During the overnight hours, ifr
conditions will develop with broken to overcast ceilings less than
fl020 likely, as well as MVFR to ifr conditions in moderate to
heavy rainfall, mainly after daybreak. Winds will persist out of
the northeast from 5 to 10 knots, increasing to around 12 knots
with gusts near 20 knots by early morning Tuesday, and picking up
to 15 to 17 knots late Tuesday morning through the afternoon.

Preliminary point temps pops
Key west 70 74 69 77 70 90 70 30
marathon 70 75 69 79 70 90 70 40

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory for gmz033-034.

Public marine fire... Clr
aviation nowcasts... .Devanas
data collection... ... Dr
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 1 mi34 min 76°F 80°F1016 hPa
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 5 mi74 min 76°F 1014.8 hPa (+0.9)67°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 24 mi184 min 79°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 24 mi124 min 80°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 27 mi124 min 78°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 29 mi124 min 78°F
BKYF1 32 mi124 min 79°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 32 mi124 min 79°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 32 mi124 min N 9.9 79°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 36 mi124 min 79°F
TBYF1 37 mi124 min 80°F
WWEF1 38 mi184 min 79°F
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 39 mi34 min NE 6 G 9.9 76°F 80°F1016.5 hPa
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 41 mi124 min 79°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 41 mi124 min 80°F
LRIF1 42 mi124 min 79°F
CWAF1 42 mi184 min 80°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 43 mi124 min 83°F
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 44 mi74 min 75°F 1015.6 hPa (+1.1)66°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 44 mi64 min E 5.1 73°F
NRRF1 45 mi124 min 79°F
SREF1 45 mi124 min 79°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 46 mi184 min 79°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 46 mi184 min 80°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 47 mi124 min 78°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 48 mi184 min 80°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL4 mi71 minNNE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F66°F67%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW5N7N7N7N6NE5N8NE6NE8NE9E9NE9NE9NE8NE7NE7NE6N5N7NE9NE10N9NE11
1 day agoCalmCalmN3NW4NW4CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmNE4NE8NE9N7NE6N5N5NW4NW5NW5W4W4NW3
2 days agoE6E6E5E6SE7SE8SE6SE6SE5SE3SE3------44S6S5CalmCalmS3SE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Boot Key Harbor, Vaca Key, Florida (2)
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Boot Key Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:54 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:15 AM EDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:26 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.2-0.3-0.10.10.50.81.11.21.210.60.30.10.20.40.81.31.722.11.91.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Moser Channel (swingbridge), Florida Current
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Moser Channel (swingbridge)
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Mon -- 01:37 AM EDT     -2.38 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:08 AM EDT     1.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:17 PM EDT     -2.12 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     1.70 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:08 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-2.3-2.4-1.9-1.10.11.11.721.81.20.2-0.9-1.7-2.1-2-1.4-0.40.61.41.71.61.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.