Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 11:31 AM   Moonset 12:32 AM

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GMZ053 Expires:202405150230;;213372 Fzus52 Kkey 142023 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 423 pm edt Tue may 14 2024
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
wave detail will include details about the period and direction of origin for the highest energy waves. Long-period swells coming from a different direction than the wind would be included in the wave detail.
gmz052>055-072>075-150230- straits of florida from ocean reef to craig key out 20 nm- straits of florida from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out 20 nm- straits of florida from west end of seven mile bridge to south of halfmoon shoal out 20 nm- straits of florida from halfmoon shoal to 20 nm west of dry tortugas out 20 nm- straits of florida from ocean reef to craig key 20 to 60 nm out- straits of florida from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge 20 to 60 nm out- straits of florida from west end of seven mile bridge to south of halfmoon shoal 20 to 60 nm out- straits of florida from halfmoon shoal to 20 nm west of dry tortugas 20 to 60 nm out- 423 pm edt Tue may 14 2024
.small craft should exercise caution for increasing winds - .
Tonight - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast to south and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds and northeast to east 2 feet at 6 seconds. Wednesday - South to southwest winds near 15 knots, becoming southwest to west and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 5 seconds and southeast to south 1 foot at 3 seconds. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: northeast to east 1 foot at 4 seconds. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - Southwest to west winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - West to northwest near 10 knots, becoming variable near 5 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Isolated showers. Friday - Variable winds near 5 knots, becoming southeast to south and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers. Friday night - East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south and increasing 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers. Saturday - Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers.Saturday night - Southeast winds near 10 knots, becoming southeast to south and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas building to 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - South to southwest winds near 10 knots. Seas subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 423 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - A weak frontal boundary to the north of the florida keys interacting with an area of high pressure in the western atlantic will result in a somewhat chaotic wind forecast through the weekend. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, and then lull in the afternoon hours. Rain and Thunder chances will remain low through the weekend.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 07, 2024 - .
54 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 30 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 13 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 8 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 8 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 9 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KKEY 141949 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 349 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Surface analysis places a weak frontal boundary extending from the central Gulf of Mexico northeastward through central Florida and just off the Georgia coastline. Meanwhile, an area of surface high pressure is centered just to its east off in the vicinity of Bermuda. CIMSS satellite-derived vorticity analysis places a potent mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf eastward to the Bahamas. This continues to keep the Florida Keys in a very dry and warm pattern. KBYX is void of any meteorological echo returns.
Skies are mostly sunny across the island chain, with temperatures generally in the upper 80s, and heat indices near 100F.

Nil rain chances are expected to continue tonight. The aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to sag southward towards South Florida Wednesday and Wednesday night, then stall in the vicinity of the Florida Keys for late week. This will result in a somewhat chaotic wind forecast, but in general, stronger winds during the evening and overnight periods and weaker winds during the afternoons. Rain chances appear to remain low through the week, and will likely be limited to any outflow boundaries shooting off either from the dissipating frontal feature to our north or pushing off Cuba in the diurnally-favored late afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures will remain the main weather story for this period, with temperatures likely reaching 90F through Sunday, and lows only dipping into the lower 80s.

Global ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance continues to detect a changing synoptic pattern by late in the weekend and early next week. The dominant ridge appears it will finally break down, as a shortwave trough deepens just off the Southeast coastline. While the greatest forcing for large-scale ascent will likely remain north of the Florida Keys for this period, all it often takes this time of year is removal of the ridge-driven cap to get shower proliferation locally. Given this is still over five days out, have only nudge measurable rain chances slightly upward for this period, although should model run-to-run consistency persist, more drastic upticks will be required in upcoming forecast package cycles.

MARINE
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A weak frontal boundary to the north of the Florida Keys interacting with an area of high pressure in the western Atlantic will result in a somewhat chaotic wind forecast through the weekend. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, and then lull in the afternoon hours. Rain and thunder chances will remain low through the weekend.



AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist at EYW and MTH terminals through the evening and overnight hours. Southeast surface winds of 5 to 10 knots will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening hours. However, another surge in winds out of the southeast to south is expected later this evening through the overnight hours with sustained winds near 15 knots with occasional gusts to near 20 knots.



CLIMATE
On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record rainfall of 5.76 inches was recorded in Marathon set back in 2020. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to 1950.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 81 92 82 92 / 10 10 20 10 Marathon 81 92 82 92 / 10 10 20 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

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Boot Key Harbor
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Tue -- 01:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:15 AM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:49 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:55 PM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:53 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boot Key Harbor, Vaca Key, Florida, Tide feet

Moser Channel (swingbridge)
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Tue -- 01:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:24 AM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:57 AM EDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:29 PM EDT     0.51 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:02 PM EDT     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moser Channel (swingbridge), Florida Current, knots

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