Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marathon, FL
May 15, 2024 5:54 AM EDT (09:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:41 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 12:25 PM Moonset 1:08 AM |
GMZ043 Expires:202405151500;;242356 Fzus52 Kkey 150850 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 450 am edt Wed may 15 2024
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
wave detail will include details about the period and direction of origin for the highest energy waves. Long-period swells coming from a different direction than the wind would be included in the wave detail.
gmz042>044-151500- hawk channel from ocean reef to craig key out to the reef- hawk channel from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out to the reef- hawk channel from west end of seven mile bridge to halfmoon shoal out to the reef- 450 am edt Wed may 15 2024
.small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease - .
Today - Southeast to south winds 15 to 20 knots early, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots this morning, then becoming west to northwest and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south to southwest and increasing to near 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west to northwest. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night - West to northwest winds near 10 knots, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming smooth.
Friday - Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop.
Friday night - East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south 10 to 15 knots. Seas building to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop.
Saturday - Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday night - Southeast winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. NEarshore waters becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday - South to southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west near 10 knots. Seas subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night - West winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 450 am edt Wed may 15 2024
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
wave detail will include details about the period and direction of origin for the highest energy waves. Long-period swells coming from a different direction than the wind would be included in the wave detail.
gmz042>044-151500- hawk channel from ocean reef to craig key out to the reef- hawk channel from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out to the reef- hawk channel from west end of seven mile bridge to halfmoon shoal out to the reef- 450 am edt Wed may 15 2024
GMZ005 Dry Tortugas 424 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - A weak frontal boundary to the north of the florida keys interacting with an area of high pressure in the western atlantic will result in a somewhat chaotic wind forecast through the weekend. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, and then lull in the afternoon hours. Rain and Thunder chances will remain low through the weekend.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 07, 2024 - .
54 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 30 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 13 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 8 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 8 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 9 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 07, 2024 - .
54 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 30 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 13 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 8 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 8 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 9 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.
FXUS62 KKEY 150834 AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 434 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
Issued at 435 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The above normal warmth and very muggy conditions continue for another overnight and early morning for the Florida Keys. In fact, Key West International and The Florida Keys Marathon International Airports both set new daily warm minimum temperatures for May 14th. Key West's lowest temperature was 83 degrees, while Marathon got down only to 82 degrees. Meanwhile, dew points are in the upper 70s which has kept heat index values mainly in the 90s this morning. As was the case last night, a breeze has developed which is bringing some relief. Otherwise, southerly winds continue with deep subsidence in place and no precipitation detected from KBYX.
FORECAST
A remnant boundary left over from an earlier decaying front lies just northwest and outside of our waters but is slowly trudging southeast. As this feature approaches the Florida Keys later today, it will lead to winds veering around from the southeast and south this morning to the southwest and west by the early afternoon. This may actually favor a reverse cloud line today but given the substantial dry air it will be a tall order to get convection to develop let alone linger for too long. As such will not deviate from the slight chance PoPs (10 percent) for today.
Going into tonight, models continue to suggest that convection may fire across Cuba and eject boundaries that will move northward into our area. These boundaries could then interact with any residual boundaries left over from any cloud lines. This in turn could provide a better source of lift for any new convection.
However, that being said, there will still be dry and subsidence to contend with. As such, will keep PoPs limited to 20 percent for Wednesday night.
Thereafter, drier air returns for the end of the week and felt that mentions of PoPs could be taken out at this time. Better moisture and lift looks to return towards the back half of the weekend and as such, a threat for showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will return and last into next week. This will be because the ridge looks to finally break down, as a shortwave trough deepens just off the Southeast coastline. At this time, the greatest forcing for large-scale ascent will likely remain north of the Florida Keys for this period. Have begun to notice that models are beginning to increase rain chances but given that we're still multiple days out, would like to wait one more run to see if there is consistency in this trend. Lastly, above normal (near -record) warmth will continue along with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. The combination of which will raise heat index values to near or potentially exceeding 108 degrees.
MARINE
Issued at 435 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
A nocturnal surge remains ongoing with moderate to occasionally fresh southerly breezes. Breezes will quickly slacken after sunrise as a weak boundary approaches from the north. In addition, this will lead to winds becoming chaotic by the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure in the western Atlantic will flex in strength resulting in additional periods of somewhat chaotic winds through the weekend. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, and then lull in the afternoon hours. Rain and thunder chances will remain low through the weekend.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH throughout the upcoming forecast period. Early morning near-surface winds will surge to near 15 knots with an occasional near 20 knot gust out of the southeast. Cloud cover will begin to rise towards FL020 by sunrise as winds veer southwesterly. Near-surface winds will remain below 10 knots during the day and drop to 5 to 10 knots by nightfall.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 435 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Moderate to occasionally fresh southerly breezes this morning will quickly slacken and becoming light and variable by this afternoon and evening. A surface ridge which lies to the east of the Florida Keys will wax and wane in strength, resulting in chaotic winds at times. A threat of isolated thunderstorms will return as early as this afternoon and continue into Thursday with another round potentially starting Saturday night. Chances for thunder may be better over the weekend and into early next but confidence is too low to raise above slight chance at this time. Otherwise, dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s, resulting in afternoon min RH values holding above 50 percent for now.
CLIMATE
On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record rainfall of 2.62 inches was recorded in Key West set back in 1900. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 92 82 92 81 / 10 20 10 10 Marathon 92 82 92 82 / 10 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 434 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
Issued at 435 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The above normal warmth and very muggy conditions continue for another overnight and early morning for the Florida Keys. In fact, Key West International and The Florida Keys Marathon International Airports both set new daily warm minimum temperatures for May 14th. Key West's lowest temperature was 83 degrees, while Marathon got down only to 82 degrees. Meanwhile, dew points are in the upper 70s which has kept heat index values mainly in the 90s this morning. As was the case last night, a breeze has developed which is bringing some relief. Otherwise, southerly winds continue with deep subsidence in place and no precipitation detected from KBYX.
FORECAST
A remnant boundary left over from an earlier decaying front lies just northwest and outside of our waters but is slowly trudging southeast. As this feature approaches the Florida Keys later today, it will lead to winds veering around from the southeast and south this morning to the southwest and west by the early afternoon. This may actually favor a reverse cloud line today but given the substantial dry air it will be a tall order to get convection to develop let alone linger for too long. As such will not deviate from the slight chance PoPs (10 percent) for today.
Going into tonight, models continue to suggest that convection may fire across Cuba and eject boundaries that will move northward into our area. These boundaries could then interact with any residual boundaries left over from any cloud lines. This in turn could provide a better source of lift for any new convection.
However, that being said, there will still be dry and subsidence to contend with. As such, will keep PoPs limited to 20 percent for Wednesday night.
Thereafter, drier air returns for the end of the week and felt that mentions of PoPs could be taken out at this time. Better moisture and lift looks to return towards the back half of the weekend and as such, a threat for showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will return and last into next week. This will be because the ridge looks to finally break down, as a shortwave trough deepens just off the Southeast coastline. At this time, the greatest forcing for large-scale ascent will likely remain north of the Florida Keys for this period. Have begun to notice that models are beginning to increase rain chances but given that we're still multiple days out, would like to wait one more run to see if there is consistency in this trend. Lastly, above normal (near -record) warmth will continue along with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. The combination of which will raise heat index values to near or potentially exceeding 108 degrees.
MARINE
Issued at 435 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
A nocturnal surge remains ongoing with moderate to occasionally fresh southerly breezes. Breezes will quickly slacken after sunrise as a weak boundary approaches from the north. In addition, this will lead to winds becoming chaotic by the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure in the western Atlantic will flex in strength resulting in additional periods of somewhat chaotic winds through the weekend. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, and then lull in the afternoon hours. Rain and thunder chances will remain low through the weekend.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH throughout the upcoming forecast period. Early morning near-surface winds will surge to near 15 knots with an occasional near 20 knot gust out of the southeast. Cloud cover will begin to rise towards FL020 by sunrise as winds veer southwesterly. Near-surface winds will remain below 10 knots during the day and drop to 5 to 10 knots by nightfall.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 435 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Moderate to occasionally fresh southerly breezes this morning will quickly slacken and becoming light and variable by this afternoon and evening. A surface ridge which lies to the east of the Florida Keys will wax and wane in strength, resulting in chaotic winds at times. A threat of isolated thunderstorms will return as early as this afternoon and continue into Thursday with another round potentially starting Saturday night. Chances for thunder may be better over the weekend and into early next but confidence is too low to raise above slight chance at this time. Otherwise, dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s, resulting in afternoon min RH values holding above 50 percent for now.
CLIMATE
On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record rainfall of 2.62 inches was recorded in Key West set back in 1900. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 92 82 92 81 / 10 20 10 10 Marathon 92 82 92 82 / 10 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMTH THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON INTL,FL | 1 sm | 61 min | S 10G18 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 82°F | 79°F | 89% | 29.86 |
Vaca Key-Fat Deer Key bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 04:14 AM EDT 0.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:17 AM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:24 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:01 PM EDT 1.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT 0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 04:14 AM EDT 0.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:17 AM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:24 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:01 PM EDT 1.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT 0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Vaca Key-Fat Deer Key bridge, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Moser Channel (swingbridge)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:39 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:46 AM EDT 0.85 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:50 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 10:06 AM EDT -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:25 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:13 PM EDT 0.55 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:46 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:20 PM EDT -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:39 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:46 AM EDT 0.85 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:50 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 10:06 AM EDT -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:25 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:13 PM EDT 0.55 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:46 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:20 PM EDT -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Moser Channel (swingbridge), Florida Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.6 |
| 9 am |
| -1 |
| 10 am |
| -1.1 |
| 11 am |
| -1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.2 |
Key West, FL,
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