Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duck Key, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:09PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 12:16 AM EDT (04:16 UTC) Moonrise 4:43AMMoonset 5:59PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ043 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1023 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft should exercise caution for increasing winds...
Overnight..Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots early...becoming south and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet...building to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop...becoming choppy. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms...mainly late.
Wednesday..South to southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South to southwest winds 15 to 20 knots...increasing to 20 to 25 knots late. Seas 2 to 3 feet...building to 3 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy...becoming very rough. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots...decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet...subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters very rough...becoming a moderate chop. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Winds becoming variable 5 to 10 knots. Seas subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters becoming mostly smooth. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms...mainly before midnight.
Friday..East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night and Saturday..East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday and Sunday night..East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duck Key, FL
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location: 24.79, -80.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 240129
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
929 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Discussion In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest
available IR imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of
900 pm, depict an unseasonably deep longwave trough building
slowly eastward with an associated well aliened cold core cyclone
moving southeast away from iowa. Much of the gulf of mexico is
beneath the southern periphery of this trough, or underneath deepening
middle and upper cyclonic flow that is pushing towards florida.

South florida and the florida keys are not that far east of the
right entrance region of the jet, somewhat unusual for late may.

At the surface and in the lower to middle levels,(surface to 700
mb), latest IR imagery overlaid with land and marine surface
observations and analysis as of 900 pm, detail a strong late
season cold front trailing south southwest to east texas from a
1005 mb low over southern minnesota. Well southeast of that, the
western periphery of an atlantic surface ridge is poking across
south florida from the west central atlantic. The latest 00z
evening sounding is illustrating veering and moistening, as well
as a destabilizing lower to middle level troposphere with a gentle
to fresh south to southwest flow right off the surface up to 700
mb, then becoming strong above that, with columnar pwat up to
1.66 inches.

Currently As of 900 pm, skies are partly cloudy owing to mainly
some altocu with cirrostratus and cirrus AOA 20 kft. This is well
by the latest available IR imagery showing these clouds
continuing to roll in from the west. Temperatures across the
islands remain in the lower 80s with typically humid dewpoints in
the middle 70s. C-man stations along the florida reef are
southeast to south near 10 knots attm. Radar detects mostly non
precip echoes with the exception of a few cells which have
developed in situ out over the cay sal bank well SE of the keys.

Short term Overnight, a surface low pressure system will
develop over the middle ohio valley after midnight tonight along
the aforementioned cold front and deepen rather quickly to 999 mb
by 12z, deepening to 996 mb over western pennsylvania by days end.

Available forecast soundings will illustrate the deepening low to
middle level cyclonic flow with freshening southeast to southerly
winds overnight and tomorrow morning. Southeast to south winds
near 10 mph will increase to near 15 mph after midnight and become
gusty by daybreak, with breezy conditions likely during
Wednesday. Given the thermodynamics and approaching dynamics,
(with low level confluent flow ensuing already), will keep
isolated showers and thunderstorms in the grids overnight, but
this would be very late (well after midnight). Hence, only changes
will be to adjust the winds up a bit and add slight chance of
thunder as well.

During Wednesday, the aforementioned jet entrance region will be
approaching south florida and the keys at 500 mb (18 to 24 hours
from now). As such, deep cyclonic flow and 500 mb PVA (positive
vorticity advection) combined with deep moisture will contribute
to rounds of strong showers and thunderstorms, with GFS forecast
soundings illustrating 0-6 km storm motion around 30 knots by 18z,
allowing any cuban convection that develops during Wednesday
afternoon to move rapidly northwards towards the keys. This first
round is expected to be late in the afternoon and evening, but if
convection does develops earlier over the cuban archipelago in
the afternoon, then the first round could race quickly northwards,
reaching the keys by mid afternoon. SPC has placed the florida
keys in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday night
thru Thursday morning.

Marine Overnight, will be issuing scec headlines for hawk
channel, all of the florida straits, and the offshore gulf waters
20 to 60 nm west of mainland monroe and the extreme southeastern
gulf of mexico waters around the dry tortugas and rebecca shoal
channel. Scec conditions appear likely outside of showers and
thunderstorms across all of the waters during Wednesday, however,
mariners encountering showers and thunderstorms will encounter
some wind gusts between 35 and 45 knots in squalls later in the
day and evening. Special marine warnings will be likely by late
Wednesday.

Aviation Vfr conditions expected overnight at both keyw and
kmth island terminals.

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... None.

Public marine fire... Futterman
aviation nowcasts... .Futterman
data collection... ... Dr
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 4 mi77 min SSE 15 G 16 81°F 84°F1013.6 hPa (+0.9)75°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 13 mi47 min SE 7 G 12 82°F 86°F1012.9 hPa
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 31 mi77 min SSE 11 G 13 81°F 82°F1014.1 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marathon, Marathon Airport, FL10 mi24 minSSE 6 G 1410.00 miA Few Clouds83°F77°F82%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE6SE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Conch Key, eastern end, Florida
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Conch Key
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:43 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:57 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:53 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:17 PM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20.10.30.711.41.61.71.61.410.50.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.20.50.811.11.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key Viaduct, Florida Current
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Long Key Viaduct
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:43 AM EDT     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:21 AM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:18 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:48 PM EDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:00 PM EDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-1-1.4-1.5-1.2-0.70.10.71.110.70.2-0.5-1.2-1.7-1.8-1.6-1-0.10.81.41.61.41

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.