Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duck Key, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:07PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:54 PM EST (21:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:01PMMoonset 9:15AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ043 Expires:201901240330;;817941 Fzus52 Kkey 232126 Cwfkey Coastal Waters Forecast For The Florida Keys National Weather Service Key West Fl 426 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019 Florida Bay...hawk Channel And Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To South Of Dry Tortugas...and The Extreme Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico...including The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Gmz042>044-240330- Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 426 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect...
Tonight..Southeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest to west and decreasing to near 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet, subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a light chop. Widespread showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds near 10 knots, becoming northwest to north and increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, except 3 to 5 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers.
Friday night..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Sunday and Sunday night..Northeast to east winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Monday..Northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Monday night..North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duck Key, FL
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location: 24.79, -80.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 232011
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
311 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Discussion
Water vapor imagery reveals a positively tilted mid-upper level
trough sliding east through texas. The florida keys remain
anticyclonic at all levels despite the impinging lower heights. A
cold front is moving slowly east through the gulf of mexico.

Within the warm sector, several confluent bands are beginning to
flourish within the moist low level southeasterlies and the
favorable venting aloft. East to southeast winds average 20 to 25
knots across the reef tract, with winds decreased somewhat across
the cooler waters bay and gulf side of the island chain.

Temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints now in the
upper 60s. Skies are partly cloudy and the kbyx radar is nearly
echo free. The inversion near 800 mb (see 12z kkey raob) appears
to be intact, putting the kibosh on convection near the keys.

Forecast
The cold front will move slowly southeast tonight and Thursday,
struggling to lose latitude due to its nearly parallel orientation
with the mean layer thermal wind. Ahead of the front, plentiful
low level moisture, moderate instability, and energetic mid to
upper level flow will result in 80% rain and thunder chances on
Thursday. The inevitable frontal passage will be Thursday night,
followed by a brief period of drier north to northeast breezes
Friday and Friday night. Despite the cooler, continental bl winds,
mid level southwesterlies will retain cloud cover. Thereafter,
model solutions diverge, which forces us to rely on ensemble
means. Unfortunately, ensemble means tend to wash out the nitty
gritty details needed for the extended forecast. The general time
line pivots a pacific shortwave (currently south of the aleutians)
Saturday and Saturday night around the base of the broad cyclonic
long wave entrenched over the conus. The previous cold front will
lift northward then provide a focus for cyclogenesis. We
advertise fresh northeast breezes Saturday through Monday night,
with increased rain chances. Whatever unsettled weather develops
along the front, the increased rain chances and cloud cover should
clear east of the florida keys by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Marine
Small craft advisory remains in effect for hawk channel, the
straits of florida, and the deeper waters of the southeastern gulf
of mexico. Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots will prevail across the
affected coastal waters of the florida keys this evening. Seas 8
to 10 feet across the straits of florida and up to 7 feet across
the southeastern gulf of mexico, south of the dry tortugas. A
sprawling high pressure cell centered near bermuda will migrate
eastward tonight. Strong southeast breezes will veer to the
southeast to south as the high slides east. The next cold front
will press southeast across the gulf of mexico tonight, likely
reaching the florida keys Thursday night. Winds will box around
the compass Thursday and Thursday night, with fresh northeast
breezes likely Friday through Monday.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail at the eyw and mth
terminals with occasional sct between 035-040. Gusty east
southeast winds of 25 to 28 kts will gradually diminish this
evening with winds veering towards the southwest by Thursday
morning as a front approaches from the west. Vcsh could be in as
early as 13z and 14z for eyw and mth respectively. Chances
increase through the day Thursday with the frontal passage.

Preliminary point temps pops
Key west 74 77 64 70 30 80 40 30
marathon 74 79 62 70 30 80 40 30

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory for gmz033-034-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

Public marine fire... Clr
aviation nowcasts... .Liw
data collection... ... Dr
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 4 mi115 min SE 17 G 22 74°F 69°F1018.6 hPa (-3.1)65°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 11 mi115 min 69°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 13 mi55 min WSW 8 G 17 76°F 70°F1018.5 hPa (-1.8)
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 17 mi65 min 76°F 1017.8 hPa (-2.0)66°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 18 mi115 min 75°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 19 mi115 min 69°F
BKYF1 23 mi115 min 71°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 26 mi115 min 71°F
TBYF1 27 mi115 min 70°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 28 mi115 min 68°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 30 mi115 min 70°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 31 mi115 min SE 25 G 28 75°F 76°F1019.2 hPa (-3.5)
WWEF1 31 mi175 min 69°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 32 mi115 min 73°F
LRIF1 34 mi115 min 71°F
CWAF1 36 mi175 min 71°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 38 mi115 min 69°F
NRRF1 38 mi115 min 68°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi115 min 67°F
SREF1 41 mi115 min 68°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 44 mi115 min 67°F
HREF1 45 mi115 min 67°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 48 mi115 min 68°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL10 mi2 hrsESE 109.00 miOvercast80°F66°F64%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN6N6N6N6NE4N9NE12NE12NE12NE12NE12NE10NE9E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Key Channel (West), Florida
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Long Key Channel (West)
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:38 AM EST     1.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:14 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:59 AM EST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:47 PM EST     0.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:38 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.711.31.51.51.30.90.4-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.30.60.80.80.70.40.1-0.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key Viaduct, Florida Current
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Long Key Viaduct
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:56 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:23 AM EST     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:43 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:14 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:31 AM EST     1.45 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:54 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:01 PM EST     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:44 PM EST     1.14 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0-0.8-1.4-1.8-1.7-1.3-0.60.211.41.41.10.6-0.1-0.8-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.9-0.20.611.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.