Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duck Key, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:57PM Friday October 19, 2018 9:05 AM EDT (13:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:08PMMoonset 1:48AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ043 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 427 Am Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect...
Today..East winds near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters rough, becoming choppy late. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday..North to northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..Northeast winds near 10 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming choppy. Isolated showers.
Monday and Monday night..Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duck Key, FL
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location: 24.79, -80.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 190823
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
423 am edt Fri oct 19 2018

Discussion In the middle and upper levels( 700-200 mb), latest
available goes-r satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline
analysis as of 300 am, depict the 595 decameter center of an
expansive warm core middle and upper level anticyclone positioned
from the north central gulf of mexico just south of the delta to
across central florida into the western atlantic near 24n 64w. To
the north of this feature, there is a zonal progressive low
amplitude averaging 75 to 100 knot flow at 250 mb, evident from
the NW old mexico northeastward to the midwest thence east
southeastward to the middle atlantic coast.

At the surface and in the lower to mid levels(surface to 700 mb),
latest available goes-r satellite imagery overlaid with marine
and land surface observations and surface analysis, depict the
center of cold 1030 mb plus surface anticyclone centered over
southern ohio. Well south of that, a stationary front is draped
across the northern 1 3 of the breadth of the gulf to across
northern florida into the western atlantic ocean. As a
result, last evenings 00z sounding at key illustrated a fresh
northeast flow from off the surface to 850 mb, becoming moderate
above that up to about 700 mb, then veering back to between east
and southeast up to 300 mb. Overall column was still similar to 24
hrs prior, with pwat at 1.34 inches. Upstream of south florida and
the keys, GOES tpw really continues to delineate the drier air,
averaging between 1.00 and 1.25 inches out to the 60th meridian.

Currently As of 300 am, skies are mostly clear across the
islands and surrounding waters, with only a few showers dotting
the far outer SW straits. Temperatures are right near 80 degrees
with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. C-man stations along the
florida reef are mostly east at 15 to 20 knots to around 20 knots,
with near 20 knots at smith shoal light. An ascat pass late last
evening at 200z showed solid 20 plus knotters in the central and
western florida straits. Island platforms are averaging near 15
mph with gusts over 20 mph.

Short term Today thru Sunday, 590 to 595 dm falling to near 590
decameter at 500 mb heights will continue across south florida and
the keys in association with the aforementioned already anchored
deep middle level ridge(1st paragraph) which will remain in the
same relative position. By Sunday, the heights fall a few
decameters in association with a burgeoning middle and upper
trough over the NE and middle atlantic states, which will
introduce a little lift and instability next week. Until then,
available model forecast soundings continue to illustrate lots of
dry air advecting across the keys above 850 mb thru the period.

This lines up with the above mentioned GOES tpw as well. The breezy
to windy conditions, do however, go by the wayside late this
afternoon and tonight, as surface ridging collapses in advance of
stationary front. All of these things precipitated the earlier
forecaster shifts insertion of only dime, 10%, pops in the grids,
for these periods (today thru Sunday), with thunder removed. The
only exception is removal of pops during Saturday, likely due to
the given depth of drier air and light winds, with pwat below an
inch for that particular period. Bottom line, it will be mostly
clear and continued very warm and humid with, very little chance
for any rain, with lessening breeze.

Long term Sunday night thru Thursday, the longwave trough
along the east coast will drive the frontal boundary over north
florida slowly southwards during Sunday. As the surface cold
frontal boundary slows down across south florida by Monday,
moisture increases and low level convergence, allowing for
develoment of showers, and isolated storms as well, given slight
decrease in stability per upper troughing. So for now we have
raised pops to low chance, 30% for Monday and Monday night, as 00z
ecmwf indicates there is still less moisture to deal with in
advance of this front. Strong high pressure over the mid-
mississippi valley will allow northeast winds to increase with
breezy to windy conditions as well.

Then this surface ridge moves quickly to the southeastern
seaboard and weakens as our local winds slacken a bit, and become
more east by Tuesday and Tuesday night. Yet weaker ridging
remains across central florida, and is sufficient for gentle to
moderate flow over the keys tues thru Thursday. This will prompt
isolated chances for showers and storms Tuesday, 20%, thru late
week(Thursday). High and low temperatures will be near or slightly
above normal.

Marine Sca to continue across for
gmz033-034-042>044-052>055-072>075 thru at least 15z, then winds
and seas drop off fairly quick. Will probably have scec
conditions across gmz033-034-042>044-052>055-072>075 thru the
early evening, with no headlines or advisories expected thereafter
until Sunday night, when intensifying high pressure will result
in at least scec for gmz033-034-042>044-052>055-072>075, with scec
likely for Monday and Monday night, before winds and seas let
down again.

Aviation
Until 00z 19th,VFR conditions can be expected at the key west
and marathon terminals with mostly east winds of 10 to 15 knots
with gusts near 20 knots can be expected.

Climate
In 2009, the daily record low temperature of 65 degrees was recorded
in key west. Temperature records have been kept since 1872.

Preliminary point temps pops
Key west 88 80 87 78 10 10 - 10
marathon 88 80 87 77 10 10 - 10

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for gmz033-034-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

Public marine fire... Futterman
aviation nowcasts... .Apa
visit us on the web at weather.Gov key
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 4 mi66 min ESE 15 G 17 82°F 82°F1019.6 hPa (+1.2)72°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 11 mi66 min 81°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 13 mi36 min WSW 8 G 11 83°F 82°F1019.7 hPa
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 14 mi126 min 82°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 17 mi76 min ENE 19 G 22 82°F 1018.8 hPa (+1.2)70°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 18 mi126 min 79°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 19 mi66 min 80°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 21 mi66 min NE 9.9 81°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 22 mi66 min 79°F
BKYF1 23 mi66 min 79°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 26 mi66 min 82°F
TBYF1 27 mi66 min 83°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 28 mi66 min 81°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 30 mi66 min 84°F
WWEF1 31 mi126 min 82°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 31 mi66 min E 18 G 20 83°F 83°F1019.8 hPa (+1.0)
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 32 mi66 min 82°F
LRIF1 34 mi66 min 83°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 35 mi126 min 82°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 36 mi126 min 83°F
CWAF1 36 mi126 min 82°F
NRRF1 38 mi66 min 84°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 38 mi126 min 82°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 38 mi66 min 81°F
THRF1 39 mi126 min 83°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 40 mi126 min 82°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi66 min 84°F
SREF1 41 mi66 min 85°F
MDKF1 43 mi126 min 82°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 43 mi126 min 83°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 44 mi66 min 82°F
HREF1 45 mi66 min 83°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 48 mi66 min 83°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL10 mi73 minE 9 G 1610.00 miFair81°F70°F69%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Key Channel (West), Florida
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Long Key Channel (West)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:08 AM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:50 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:39 PM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:06 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.1110.80.70.70.80.911.11.31.31.41.31.10.90.60.50.40.50.60.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key Viaduct, Florida Current
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Long Key Viaduct
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:24 AM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:26 AM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:34 PM EDT     -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:57 PM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.20.20.40.50.40.3-0-0.5-0.8-1-1-0.8-0.40.10.50.70.70.60.3-0.1-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.