Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 5:08 AM   Moonset 6:44 PM

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GMZ043 Expires:202405072145;;811264 Fzus52 Kkey 072031 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys - .resent national weather service key west fl 431 pm edt Tue may 7 2024
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz042>044-072145- hawk channel from ocean reef to craig key out to the reef- hawk channel from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out to the reef- hawk channel from west end of seven mile bridge to halfmoon shoal out to the reef- 431 pm edt Tue may 7 2024
Tonight - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Wednesday - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop.Wednesday night - Southeast winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Thursday night - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop.Friday - Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest to west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Friday night - Southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers. Saturday - Southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots, except increasing to 10 to 15 knots east of craig key in the afternoon. Seas around 1 foot, except building to 1 to 2 feet east of craig key. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, except becoming a light to moderate chop east of craig key. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday night - West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots. Seas subsiding to around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming nearshore waters smooth to a light chop after midnight. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - Northwest to north winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Northwest to north winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 431 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis - High pressure over the western north atlantic will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through Thursday night. Breezes will slacken and veer to the south and southwest Friday into the weekend, as the high shifts southward over the western atlantic, and a weak frontal boundary stalls north of the florida keys coastal waters.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 3 - .
64 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 20 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 9 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 8 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 11 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 9 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 8 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream analysis courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KKEY 071843 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 243 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

GOES visible satellite is depicting mostly clear skies across a majority of the forecast area. A few cloud streamers have developed north of the island chain, and few very weak showers have attempted to develop, but have struggled to maintain themselves. So far today, there has been no measurable rainfall to speak of on land. This is despite the decent moisture being detected by CIMSS MIMIC TPW (50-75th percentile PW values). Dew points across the Keys have unfortunately made it into the mid-70s, and with temperatures in the upper 80s, it has made for a toasty afternoon. An expansive area of high pressure extending across the western North Atlantic has maintained moderate breezes today, which has attempted to keep some of the humidity at bay.

Slightly above normal atmospheric moisture will remain in place across the area tonight, however, the chance for any measurable rainfall along the island chain is very low. This is due to the weak, shallow nature of any shower activity, as well as the very minimal coverage expected. Have decided to drop rain chances altogether for tonight. A drier airmass will filter in across the region through the end of the work week, which will keep rain chances near nil through Friday. Winds will peak and lull through that timeframe, with the highest winds expected tomorrow night.
Above normal temperatures and soggy dew points will continue to plague the Keys for the remainder of the week. Overnight lows will struggle to drop below 80 degrees, likely coming in just under 80 degrees most nights. Friday through Friday night, winds will become southerly as deep troughing shoves the high in the western North Atlantic southward and drags a frontal boundary into the Gulf. Winds will shift to the southwest to west on Saturday, which could initiate a reverse cloud line. Have kept 20% rain chances on Saturday, which is above MOS guidance to account for this possibility. The front will slowly seep down the Florida Peninsula, but unfortunately is progged to stall to our north.
Despite the expected stall, winds across our area will shift to the west to northwest, which could bring in dew points in the lower 70s. It may not seem like much, but we will take anything we can get before summer fully sets in. Moisture will make a more noticeable return by the start of next week, so have maintained a chance of rainfall and a slight chance of thunder.

MARINE
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through Thursday night. Breezes will slacken and veer to the south and southwest Friday into the weekend, as the high shifts southward over the western Atlantic, and a weak frontal boundary stalls north of the Florida Keys coastal waters.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period with FEW to SCT skies AOA 2k ft. Near surface winds will be east to southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots through the evening, and will taper off to near 10 kts overnight.

CLIMATE
On this day in 2022, the record high (92F) and the record warm low (80F) were both recorded in Marathon. Temperature records date back to 1950.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 79 86 79 87 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 79 86 80 87 / 10 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Alligator Reef Light
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Tue -- 02:36 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:38 AM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:51 PM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:19 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alligator Reef Light, Florida (2), Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:00 AM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:57 AM EDT     1.22 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:59 PM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:35 PM EDT     1.82 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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