Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Layton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:14PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 8:59 AM EDT (12:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:47AMMoonset 10:55PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ052 Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To South Of Halfmoon Shoal Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Halfmoon Shoal To 20 Nm West Of Dry Tortugas Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To Craig Key 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To South Of Halfmoon Shoal 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From Halfmoon Shoal To 20 Nm West Of Dry Tortugas 20 To 60 Nm Out- 402 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Today..Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet, except offshore ocean reef to craig key, seas 3 to 5 feet due to north-northeast swells. Winds and seas higher in and near numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Tonight through Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, except offshore ocean reef to craig key, seas 3 to 4 feet due to north- northeast swells. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night through Saturday..East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northeast to east winds near 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Layton, FL
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location: 24.8, -80.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 260857
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
457 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

Discussion
An upper-level composite analysis early this morning reveals a
deep, moist, but weak southerly flow across the florida keys and
adjacent coastal waters. The low-level trajectories are rooted in
a rich plume of maritime tropical air covering the entire western
caribbean basin. An appraisal of (preliminary, non-operational,
but really valuable and awesome) goes-16 satellite animations from
the infrared channels show several large tropical mesoscale
convective systems with very cold cloud-top temperatures over the
northwestern caribbean sea. Scattered to numerous, smaller and
weaker convective cells were analyzed around the florida keys this
morning. The large-scale flow pattern is interesting (as it is
often around this time of year in this area). A deep layer mean
ridge extends westward, just north of the greater antilles, and
disappears into a col region over the southeastern gulf of mexico.

The caribbean trade winds veer southeasterly along the
southwestern flank of this ridge, over the northwestern caribbean,
creating a large area of low-level mass speed convergence across
the highest oceanic heat content in the basin. Meanwhile, a
northward-drifting hurricane maria takes up much of the western
subtropical north atlantic, while a small, but vigorous upper-
tropospheric cold-core cyclone is centered over the eastern gulf
of mexico, providing a favorable outflow pattern aloft over south
florida, with perhaps additional forcing for ascent owing to jet
streak dynamics. Finally, a train of subsynoptic-scale mid-
tropospheric cyclonic vortices is clearly evident in goes-16
moisture channel animations, between central america and the keys.

One of these may have helped initiate or enhance the recent
convective outbreak over the middle and upper keys.

Weather prediction models indicate a slowly evolving flow pattern
across the region, with moisture advection actually increasing
into the keys over the next few days, as low-level southerly flow
transports rich maritime tropical air into the keys. Meanwhile, as
hurricane maria eventually ejects northeastward, the deep layer
mean ridge and area of favorable low-level mass convergence will
drift northward, closer to the service area, while the upper-level
cold-core vortex spins, and meanders over the eastern gulf of
mexico, providing persistent favorable outflow and episodic
forcing for large-scale ascent. Not surprisingly, model output
statistics are indicating above-average rain and thunder chances
for the next several days, and we have adjusted forecasts in this
direction, increasing sky cover, rain, and thunder chances. The
mean sea level pressure pattern likely will remain weak through at
least Saturday, and mesoscale diabatic forcing will come into
play, especially with regard to the initiation of deep cumulus
convection via terrain-induced boundaries as well as convective
outflow.

The surface wind forecast for early next week is decidedly low
confidence owing to uncertainties in gradient flow along the
interface between an intensifying autumn anticyclone over the
eastern united states western north atlantic, and the caribbean
mean sea level pressure pattern.

Marine
No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect. A weak
pressure pattern will persist across the florida keys and adjacent
coastal waters from today through Saturday. As a result, light to
gentle breezes will prevail. Winds and seas will be higher in and
near showers and thunderstorms.

Port condition four is set in the port of key west.

Port status: open with restrictions.

Please refer to the following website for the latest marine safety
information bulletin from u.S. Coast guard sector key west:
http: homeport.Uscg.Mil keywest

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail at eyw and mth through at least the next
24 hours. MVFR or lower conditions are conceivable at eyw and mth
this afternoon and this evening. This possibility is not great
enough to place in the terminal forecasts at this time. Sustained
southeast to south winds of 5 to 10 knots expected from just off the
surface to about 3,000 feet.

Climate
On this date in florida keys weather history, in 1901, the low
temperature in key west was 70 degrees. This set the daily record
for minimum temperature measured in key west on september 26th, a
record which still stands 116 years later. Temperature records at
key west date back to 1872.

Preliminary point temps pops
Key west 88 79 87 78 60 50 50 50
marathon 89 78 89 78 60 50 50 50

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... None.

Public marine fire... Kasper
aviation nowcasts... .Bs
visit us on the web at weather.Gov key
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 10 mi59 min 87°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 16 mi119 min 88°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 16 mi59 min 86°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 21 mi59 min N 8 G 8.9 80°F 85°F1012.9 hPa
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 21 mi59 min 87°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 22 mi119 min 87°F
BKYF1 24 mi59 min 86°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 25 mi41 min NE 7 G 8.9 83°F 87°F1012.3 hPa
TBYF1 25 mi59 min 87°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 26 mi59 min 87°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 27 mi59 min 85°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 28 mi119 min 86°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 28 mi119 min 86°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 29 mi59 min 85°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 31 mi119 min 86°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 32 mi59 min 87°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 33 mi119 min 86°F
WWEF1 34 mi119 min 87°F
LRIF1 36 mi59 min 87°F
CWAF1 39 mi119 min 87°F
NRRF1 40 mi59 min 85°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 45 mi119 min 83°F
SREF1 45 mi59 min 87°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 45 mi59 min 86°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 46 mi119 min 87°F
HREF1 48 mi59 min 85°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL22 mi66 minN 610.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1012 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3S5SE5S5S5SE6SE6S5S6S5S3S6S5S3SW4SW6SW54S5CalmN3N7N6NE6
1 day ago3NE6E4SE5S4S3S5CalmNW4CalmSE3E3CalmCalmCalmS3S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN7N6NE9NE8N8NE10NE94NW3NE5E4NE4NE9E5E3E4E3CalmCalmSE5CalmCalmE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Reef, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Alligator Reef
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:09 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:28 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:47 PM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.22.221.61.31.10.911.11.41.722.22.22.221.71.51.41.41.41.61.8

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:45 AM EDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:10 AM EDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:27 PM EDT     0.86 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.70.50.3-0-0.4-0.9-1.1-1-0.7-0.30.20.60.80.80.70.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.