Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 12:23 PM   Moonset 1:07 AM

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GMZ031 Florida Bay Including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, And Buttonwood Sound- 420 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - Southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south to southwest and increasing to near 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Thursday - Southwest to west winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - West to northwest winds near 10 knots, becoming variable and decreasing to near 5 knots after midnight. Bay waters a light chop, becoming smooth. Friday - Variable winds near 5 knots, becoming southeast to south and increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop.Friday night - Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop. Saturday - Southeast to south winds near 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Isolated showers. Saturday night - Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - South winds near 10 knots, becoming south to southwest and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Sunday night and Monday - Southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.Monday night - West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest to north. Bay waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 420 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - A weak frontal boundary to the north of the florida keys interacting with an area of high pressure in the western atlantic will result in a somewhat chaotic wind forecast through the weekend. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, and then lull in the afternoon hours. Rain and Thunder chances will remain low through early next week.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 15, 2024 - .
49 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 32 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 24 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 27 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 29 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 3 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KKEY 151851 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 251 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 We think it might be safe to say we have officially reached it being hot outside. Temperatures along the Island Chain are near 90 degrees with dew points near 80 degrees making the heat index which is what it actually feels like outside being between 105 to 108 degrees. KBYX radar was quiet for most of the day until the last couple hours when isolated showers and thunderstorms developed across the waters to the north of the Island Chain.
These showers and storms appear to have formed off cumulus cloud streamers merging together helping to further lift the air. These isolated showers and thunderstorms were moving to the northeast between 10 and 15 knots. A weak frontal frontal boundary remains draped across the central Florida Peninsula which is responsible for the ongoing convection over the Mainland. This front is interacting with an area of high pressure over the North Atlantic.
As a result, marine platforms are observing southwest to west breezes of 5 to 10 knots with Island communities observing 5 to 10 mph.

FORECAST
For tonight, hi-res model guidance was showing the threat for showers and thunderstorms to develop over the southern portions of the area which might send an outflow boundary northward toward the Island Chain. However, ongoing convection across central Florida is also anticipated to send an outflow boundary southward towards the Keys. There is the threat that the two of these could merge somewhere in the vicinity of the Island Chain to result in isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight. However, this is extremely low confidence but with all the untapped air across the Keys and instability along with an approaching synoptic scale feature it was worth the mention.

Thursday through the weekend, upper level ridging is expected to build into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. The western periphery of the surface high over the North Atlantic continues to nudge westward into the Keys. As a result, the hot and sticky weather will be here to stay with the southeasterly to southerly flow. Some moisture undulations will move around the western periphery of the high at times resulting in slight chances being maintained for Thursday and then Saturday through Sunday night.

For early to mid next week, model guidance seems to be coming into agreement on a coastal low developing off the North Carolina coast which in turn will create troughing over much of Florida as the low tries to push a weak front through. Model guidance is in disagreement on the timing for this frontal boundary with one solution faster than the other one by about 24 hours. The main takeaway here is that there may be a noticeable pattern shift on the horizon with slightly lower dew points, slightly cooler temperatures, especially at night, and increasing rain chances.
For now, maintained the slight chances from the previous forecast and continued to show the slight lowering in the dew points.

MARINE
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a weak frontal boundary to the north of the Florida Keys interacting with an area of high pressure in the western Atlantic will result in a somewhat chaotic wind forecast through the weekend. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, and then lull in the afternoon hours. Rain and thunder chances will remain low through early next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Cloud streamers north of the islands will try to congeal, resulting in bouts of BKN CIGs at times through this evening.
Thereafter, there is low confidence in possible outflow boundaries interacting to drive at least isolated shower and thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the terminals through the early overnight hours. Have elected to keep the TAFs dry for now due to low confidence in this evolution, but this will be monitored.
Winds out of the south to southwest will become light and variable overnight, then clock back around to the south to southwest before sunrise.

CLIMATE
On this day in 1900, a daily record rainfall of 2.62 inches was measured at Key West. May rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 82 91 82 91 / 20 10 0 0 Marathon 82 91 82 91 / 20 10 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Alligator Reef, Hawk Channel, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
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Wed -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:51 AM EDT     0.73 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:48 AM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:19 PM EDT     0.51 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:02 PM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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