Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 3:34 PM   Moonset 2:52 AM

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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.Tonight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Wed - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft atlc exposures, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Wed night - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thu - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

FXUS62 KMFL 191737 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 137 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Scattered to numerous showers will be likely across portions of southeast Florida this afternoon as a shortwave and associated surface front approach the region. Satellite imagery shows the boundary already draped across the Lake Okeechobee region, with strong to severe storms firing off across Okeechobee and St Lucie counties. As this boundary moves southward, conditions will rapidly deteriorate for areas along the Lake and for southeastern FL.

Data from the MFL 12z sounding and ACARS flights depict an atmosphere primed for convective activity and potential severe impacts, with MUCAPE > 3000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates above 6 C/km, EBWD > 40 kts, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.65 inches or more which could result in damaging wind gusts and severe hail (up to the size of a quarter) with some of the stronger thunderstorms.
At this time, the limiting factor for hail development are the mid level temperatures which remain above -10C. However, temperatures will continue to drop and lapse rates will steepen as a pronounced shortwave finalizes its approach, thus enhancing the risk for hail across the area. A limited risk of tornadoes will also exist with some of the stronger storms, but chances will be limited to areas where low-level shear exceeds threshold values, namely along the immediate East Coast sea breeze boundaries. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties through 7PM today.

Temperatures will continue to rise across southern-most portions of the region ahead of the approaching front and associated cloud coverage. Peak apparent temperatures in the range of 105-110F are likely for portions of Miami-Dade and Broward counties where Heat Advisories remain in effect through this evening. Localized areas in Palm Beach and Collier counties could also see elevated heat index values early this afternoon, but convective activity and cloud coverage should help limit heat-related impacts across those counties.

The frontal boundary will slowly drift southward across our region overnight into Monday. This, along with the once again pinned east coast sea breeze will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region, although reduced instability and gradually decreasing large-scale ascent (as the trough shifts east)
should support a lower risk of severe storms than Sunday. Although temperatures and heat indices will remain above normal, they should be a few degrees lower than Sunday so heat headlines are not expected.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The weak cold front should finally make it through the area on Tuesday although a trailing shortwave will likely support at least scattered showers and storms particularly over southern portions of the area closer to the boundary. Mid-lvl ridging should then build into the area for the mid-late week period, with generally light easterly surface flow prevailing as weak high pressure builds into the Atlantic. Drier air and the presence of the ridge will keep PoPs lower than the early week period (largely in the isolated-scattered category), with the synoptic easterly flow favoring the highest PoPs over the Interior and SW Florida. The easterly flow will result in cooler (but still above average) high temperatures over SEFL (mostly upper 80s) while low to mid 90s can be expected over SWFL and the Interior.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Sub-VFR conditions could be possible for all terminals this afternoon as convection develops over the region. Short- fuse TEMPOs will likely be needed through the afternoon especially for East Coast sites where chances for TSRA are highest. SW winds 8-10 kts will prevail across much of South Florida, but the East Coast sea breeze will attempt to work inland, thus included the wind shift for several of the East Coast sites over the next few hours.
Showers will linger overnight with light and variable winds.
Similar conditions will be possible tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today as a cold front drops through the region, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve into the week as the front pushes through.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 78 92 75 89 / 30 60 50 50 West Kendall 75 94 72 91 / 30 60 40 50 Opa-Locka 77 93 75 91 / 30 60 50 50 Homestead 76 93 74 89 / 40 50 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 78 90 75 87 / 40 60 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 77 90 75 88 / 40 60 50 50 Pembroke Pines 78 94 75 91 / 30 60 50 50 West Palm Beach 74 90 72 87 / 40 60 50 50 Boca Raton 76 92 74 89 / 40 60 50 50 Naples 78 90 74 90 / 40 40 30 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

Nassau
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Fresh Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:25 AM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fresh Creek, Andros Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

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