Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
"Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:47PM Thursday April 18, 2019 12:17 PM EDT (16:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:11PMMoonset 5:35AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1031 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
This afternoon..Southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers in the morning.
Tonight..Southeast to south winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to near 20 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest to west and increasing to near 20 knots late. Seas 2 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest to west winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest and decreasing to near 20 knots late. Seas 3 to 5 feet, except 5 to 7 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters very rough, becoming rough. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, except 5 to 7 feet west of cosgrove shoal light due to west swells. NEarshore waters a choppy. Isolated showers in the morning.
Saturday night..Winds becoming north and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light due to west swells. NEarshore waters becoming a light to moderate chop.
Sunday..Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.
Sunday night and Monday..Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL
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location: 25, -80.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 181400
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1000 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Update
High pressure moving into the western atlantic has allowed winds
to turn more southeasterly. Precipitable water levels have risen
slightly and low-level moisture has moved in compared to the past
few mornings. The 12z mfl sounding shows this well and has a pwat
level of 1 inch this morning with still some drier air aloft. A
few showers have been developing over the atlantic and moving
across the east coast this morning. Showers will continue the rest
of the morning and begin to shift towards the interior as the sea
breezes develop along both coast this afternoon. The southerly
wind component will also allow temperatures to rise into the mid
80s along the east coast and around 90 degrees over the interior
and west coast.

Prev discussion issued 726 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
aviation...

vfr conditons will prevail across all TAF sites. Southeasterly
wind flow will increase this afternoon becoming gusty at times. A
few showers possible along the east coast this morning, but
coverage low enough to leave out of TAF for now. For apf, SW flow
will develop this afternoon with a gulf seabreeze developing.

Tonight bkn mid level clouds develop and winds remain southeasterly
around 10 kts.

Prev discussion... Issued 330 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
discussion...

today and tonight...

surface and mid-level ridging will gradually shift into the western
atlantic in response to a vigorously digging trough over the central
conus. This will allow low-level winds to turn southeasterly and
bring some low-level moisture poleward into our area. Shower chances
will initially begin for the atlantic waters and east coast this
morning, with the focus shifting inland towards the the interior
this afternoon along the atlantic sea breeze. Temperatures will be
on the warm side, with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the east
coast to the lower 90s over the western interior. Shower chances
should return tonight, and with plentiful cloud cover lows will
mostly be in the 70s.

Friday and Friday night...

a meridional flow pattern evolves aloft as large-scale troughing
encompasses much of the eastern conus. An associated maturing
surface cyclone will develop northeastward along the appalachians,
with the associated cold front sweeping through the central and
southern florida peninsula late in the period. Deep ascent tied to
increasing differential cyclonic vorticity advection and a mid-level
jet MAX will maintain a squall line in advance of the surface front
as it tracks across north and central florida during the afternoon
to early evening hours. One of the big questions at this juncture is
how far south into our area organized convection will be maintained
as the better upper support begins pulling away on Friday evening.

Dynamically, the pre-frontal environment appears supportive of
strong to severe thunderstorms (especially from the lake okeechobee
region north), given 0-3 km bulk shear values exceeding 40 kt and
strong deep layer shear occurring in association with the mid-
level speed max. Thermodynamically, things are a bit less
impressive, given decreasing MLCAPE during the evening and only
modest mid-level lapse rates.

Given the increasingly veering wind profile and frontal forcing
mechanism it appears that linear storm morphologies are favored
during the afternoon and evening (in the form of a squall line),
with some possibility for isolated to widely scattered storms
developing out ahead of it during the morning to early afternoon
hours. With regards to severe hazards, strong to damaging wind
gusts appear the greatest threat, with a conditional tornado
threat. The tornado threat is rather small, and would likely be
dependent upon the early to mid-day storms interacting with sea-
breezes or other locally generated vorticity sources. The main
window for possible severe thunderstorms should be from mid
afternoon through early evening, provided the isolated early day
risk mentioned above does not materialize. The thunderstorm threat
should be ending for all areas by mid to late evening as the line
of storms pushes offshore into the atlantic waters. The SPC day 2
severe weather outlook is in line with this thinking, with a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms over glades, northwest
hendry, and far northwest collier counties, with a marginal risk
across the remainder of south florida.

Look for rather warm temperatures on Friday afternoon as gusty ssw
winds prevail. This will allow highs in most areas to climb into the
upper 80s (even the east coast metro), with some lower 90s not out
of the question. Cooler air will filter in overnight behind the
front, with lows dropping off into the 60s for most areas.

Saturday through Wednesday...

look for dry and slightly cooler conditions early in the period
following the frontal passage. High pressure then builds back in at
the surface and aloft bringing onshore flow along with increasing
temperatures and humidity towards mid week. A few mainly light
showers are possible at times as well.

Marine...

breezy e-se flow is expected today, likely reaching advisory levels
late tonight into Friday for all waters with gusty s-ssw winds.

Winds will then veer NW behind the front on Saturday. A small
craft advisory for winds and waves will likely be needed for some
portion of this period. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin on
Thursday while becoming likely on Friday into Friday night, with
some stronger storms possible during this time.

Beach forecast...

there is a high risk for rip currents for the atlantic beaches
today. Breezy e-se winds and a NE swell will produce a moderate to
at times high rip current risk through midweek. An elevated risk
should then develop for the gulf beaches on Friday into the weekend
with NW winds behind the front.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 85 74 87 65 20 50 60 70
fort lauderdale 85 76 85 68 20 50 60 70
miami 86 76 86 68 20 50 60 70
naples 87 74 85 67 10 20 80 60

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 33 kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 6 mi78 min 79°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 8 mi78 min 80°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 12 mi78 min E 8.9 78°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi138 min 79°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 13 mi138 min 78°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 13 mi78 min 80°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 13 mi78 min 80°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi138 min 79°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 16 mi138 min 79°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 16 mi78 min 82°F
THRF1 16 mi138 min 80°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 16 mi138 min 79°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 17 mi78 min 80°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 18 mi78 min 80°F
MDKF1 21 mi78 min 79°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 23 mi78 min 80°F
WWEF1 27 mi138 min 79°F
LRIF1 28 mi78 min 81°F
NRRF1 31 mi78 min 82°F
CWAF1 33 mi138 min 80°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 36 mi138 min 79°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi78 min 79°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi78 min 81°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 37 mi36 min 81°F 81°F1016 hPa
SREF1 39 mi78 min 81°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 40 mi28 min 78°F 1015.3 hPa (+1.0)71°F
HREF1 41 mi78 min 80°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL33 mi25 minSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F73°F72%1015.6 hPa

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Last 24hr--E11E13
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E10E8E7E7E10E7E6E7E7--------
2 days agoNW9NW11NW10NW11NW11NW10NW7NW10NW8NW9N6N6N10N8N10NE8N7N8N8NE7NE10NE11E12
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tavernier Creek
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Thu -- 02:55 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:55 AM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:16 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:26 PM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.2-0.1-0.2-00.30.71.21.51.61.51.20.70.3-0.1-0.3-0.20.10.511.41.71.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
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Thu -- 02:51 AM EDT     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:05 AM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:03 PM EDT     -1.78 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:29 PM EDT     1.74 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-1-1.6-1.7-1.5-0.9-00.81.31.51.30.8-0-0.9-1.6-1.8-1.6-1.1-0.20.71.41.71.71.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.