Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
"Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:01PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:03 AM EST (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:03PMMoonset 9:58AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1026 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect...
Overnight..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. NEarshore waters very rough. Isolated showers late this evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest to west and decreasing to near 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet, subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a light chop. Widespread showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds near 10 knots, becoming northwest to north and increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, except 3 to 5 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers.
Friday night..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Sunday and Sunday night..Northeast to east winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Monday..Northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Monday night..North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near "Islamorada, Village of Islands ", FL
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location: 25, -80.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 240014
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
714 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Update
A few brief showers moved across the atlantic metro areas during
the early evening hours as prevailing southerly flow keeps
advecting moisture from the caribbean and the western atlantic.

Cloud cover and shower coverage will increase overnight, with
highest chances during the mid morning hours, starting around 10
am through noon on Thursday over the gulf areas, and through the
early afternoon hours for the atlantic metro areas.

Prev discussion issued 649 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
aviation... Breezy SE winds veer southerly overnight ahead of
front for all sites. Moist flow brings increasing -shra along east
coast, along with potential for MVFR CIGS around fl020-030. Band
of shra tsra expected with front late tonight thurs morn,
potentially tracking through kapf by 12z, and east coast sites
15z-18z. Expect period of prevailing MVFR, maybe ifr, CIGS just
ahead of and behind the front. Few strong storms possible with
this band. Winds veer SW behind front through afternoon with
speeds diminishing to 10kts or less.

Prev discussion... Issued 403 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
discussion...

breezy SE winds will strengthen and become S tonight as surface
high pressure slides further off to the east ahead of an
approaching cold front. This cold front will push through the area
tomorrow with showers and thunderstorms possible both along and
ahead of the front. The latest guidance has been trending earlier
with the frontal passage. The timing is now looking more like 5
am to noon for the gulf coast through lake okeechobee to 10 am to
4 pm for southeast florida. This timing may speed up a little
more as we get closer to the event if current trends continue. The
primary threats associated with these storms will be isolated
strong wind gusts, lightning, and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

The storm prediction center has portions of south florida from the
gulf coast through lake okeechobee outlooked in a marginal risk
for severe weather tomorrow to account for these threats. The
front and associated showers and thunderstorms should be pushing
out of the area by mid afternoon tomorrow.

Nw to N winds are expected in the wake of the front as high
pressure settles in over the southeast us. This will allow colder
air to filter in over the area once again, with Friday
night Saturday morning the coldest of the forecast period. Low
temperatures Saturday morning are forecast to range from near 40
west of lake okeechobee to the mid 50s along the east coast metro
with wind chills in the mid 30s to the low 50s across those same
areas. By Sunday the high expands eastward, allowing our winds to
become more easterly just in time for the next system to approach
the area. The details with this next system are still a bit
unclear, but for now it looks like some kind of surface low or
elongated trough over the gulf will push across the area from
west to east around Monday. This will likely bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms to the area late Sunday through
Monday night.

The next cold front will push through the area around midweek
next week. Not a lot of precipitation is expected with this front
as it doesn't look like enough moisture will be able to return to
the area prior to its arrival.

Marine... A persistent southeasterly flow will continue through
today with advisory conditions continuing over the atlantic waters
and offshore gulf waters. The wind should begin to diminish over
the gulf waters late tonight into early Thursday morning, allowing
conditions to slowly improve. Increasing shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected on Thursday as a front moves across the
region. A brief dry period is expected Friday and Saturday before
the next disturbance arrives on Sunday into Monday.

Beach forecast... A high risk of rip currents remains along the
atlantic beaches today and Thursday due to breezy southeast winds
and elevated surf.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 68 79 52 67 30 80 40 30
fort lauderdale 71 80 56 67 40 80 40 40
miami 71 79 56 67 40 80 40 40
naples 66 74 52 66 30 80 30 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Thursday evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Thursday for amz650-651-670-
671.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Thursday for gmz676.

Update... 17 ar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 6 mi124 min 69°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 8 mi124 min 70°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 8 mi64 min SSE 29 G 33 76°F 75°F1016.3 hPa (-1.8)
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 13 mi124 min 70°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 13 mi124 min 69°F
TBYF1 15 mi124 min 71°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 16 mi124 min 73°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 17 mi124 min 69°F
BKYF1 18 mi124 min 72°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 18 mi124 min 72°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 20 mi124 min 72°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 21 mi64 min SE 20 G 23 74°F 69°F1015.5 hPa (-1.4)69°F
WWEF1 27 mi184 min 69°F
LRIF1 28 mi124 min 71°F
NRRF1 31 mi124 min 69°F
CWAF1 33 mi184 min 69°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi124 min 68°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi124 min 68°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 37 mi46 min W 12 G 19 75°F 70°F1015.5 hPa
SREF1 39 mi124 min 68°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 40 mi74 min 76°F 1015.3 hPa (-1.1)70°F
HREF1 41 mi124 min 68°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 41 mi124 min 69°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 47 mi64 min SE 32 G 35 75°F 73°F1016.7 hPa (-1.7)
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 49 mi124 min 69°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL33 mi71 minSSE 14 G 269.00 miOvercast77°F70°F79%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tavernier Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:18 AM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:27 AM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:51 PM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.10.60.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-00.40.91.31.51.51.30.90.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.10.20.71.11.4

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:48 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:52 AM EST     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:13 AM EST     1.52 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:41 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:33 PM EST     1.26 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.6-0.2-1-1.6-1.7-1.5-0.9-0.20.61.31.51.41.10.4-0.4-1.1-1.5-1.4-1.1-0.50.20.91.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.