Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 4:28 AM   Moonset 5:37 PM

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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 422 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers.Tuesday and Tuesday night - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.Wednesday - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop.Wednesday night - East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast to south and increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. Friday - Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest to west and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers. Friday night - Southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.Saturday - Southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west to northwest. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.Saturday night - Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 422 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis - High pressure over the western north atlantic will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through midweek. Breezes will veer to the southeast and south and slacken late in the week and into the weekend, as the high shifts southward over the western atlantic, and a weak frontal boundary stalls north of the florida keys coastal waters.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 3 - .
64 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 20 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 9 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 8 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 11 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 9 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 8 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream analysis courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 061936 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 336 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will continue to be the main synoptic feature in the weather pattern across South Florida through the rest of this afternoon and into Tuesday. The position of the surface high will allow for the southeasterly wind flow to continue during this time frame.
With just enough lower level moisture in place, sea breeze development this afternoon and then again on Tuesday afternoon will provide enough lift and support for isolated shower and thunderstorm development. The highest chances will remain over interior portions of Southwest Florida where the Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze boundaries interact with each other. With plenty of mid to upper level dry air in place, this will help to inhibit strong thunderstorm development, however, locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out with any storm. Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminsh over the interior with the loss of diurnal heating during the evening hours. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the mid 70s across the east coast metro areas. High temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

With the Atlantic ridge of high pressure shifting south as a frontal boundary associated with a low in northeastern Canada moves into the Atlantic from the Carolinas northward, the surface ridge axis will sit over southern Florida from mid to late week. This will enable a warming trend over several days with widespread 90 degree temperatures save for sea breeze cooled areas closer to the coast. Some inland portions of South Florida could see temperatures reach into the upper 90s, particularly on Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will remain minimal, though some convection cannot be ruled out inland. The risk of heat illness will require monitoring as early as Wednesday as heat index values start entering the triple digits.

Late in the week, the next frontal boundary will move across the southeastern United States but it will lack the support to clear South Florida. Increasing moisture will lead to more shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend as the front settles over south central to southern Florida. Temperatures will cool slightly with the additional cloud cover and rainfall.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Southeasterly winds will continue this afternoon across the east coast terminals and they will be gusty at times. Isolated shower and storms will be possible mainly over interior portions of Southwest Florida and they should stay away from most of the terminals. The exception to this will be at KAPF, where some shower activity could pass nearby late this afternoon into the early evening.

MARINE
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will remain in place through the middle of the week across the Atlantic waters while gentle to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the rest of the local waters. Winds may become southwesterly each afternoon across the Gulf waters as a Gulf breeze develops. Towards the end of the week, winds across all local waters will gradually become more southerly as a frontal boundary approaches from the north.
Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less through the middle of the week while they remain at 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters.

BEACHES
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the middle of the week as moderate onshore winds continue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 75 86 75 87 / 10 20 0 10 West Kendall 72 88 72 89 / 20 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 74 88 74 90 / 10 20 0 10 Homestead 75 86 75 88 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 75 85 75 86 / 10 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 75 86 75 87 / 10 20 0 10 Pembroke Pines 75 89 75 90 / 10 20 0 10 West Palm Beach 72 86 72 88 / 10 20 0 10 Boca Raton 74 87 74 88 / 10 20 10 10 Naples 72 88 74 90 / 20 20 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Tavernier Creek
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Mon -- 02:13 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:08 AM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:47 PM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
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Mon -- 02:14 AM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:17 AM EDT     1.24 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:17 PM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:32 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EDT     1.78 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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