Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Key Largo, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:00PM Monday January 22, 2018 7:24 AM EST (12:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:41AMMoonset 11:01PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 321 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Today..East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East southeast winds 5 knots becoming north after midnight. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday night..East northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Bay waters rough.
Friday..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Bay waters rough. A slight chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 321 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure will keep the weather dry for one more day before a cold front moves into the area tomorrow. This front will bring a chance of showers to the area early Tuesday, and keep chances over the area into Wednesday night. There is also a slight chance of a few Thunderstorms tomorrow near the shoreline. The timing of the cold front tomorrow is still somewhat uncertain, although the wind is forecast to begin tomorrow out of the southeast, turning southwest in the early to mid afternoon. Models then have the frontal passage in the evening hours, with the wind turning northeast, then northerly behind it. The forecast then calls for a day of quiet weather Thursday, as a strong high builds well to the north. This will turn the wind back to the east, and bring breezy conditions to south florida by Friday, with the wind speeds between 25 and 30 kts possible in the atlantic waters Friday and Saturday, with gusts up to 30 to 35 kts.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas are forecast to build to over 7 feet in the gulf stream for the latter half of the week. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jan 19, 2018 at 1200 utc... 6 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 5 nautical miles east of lake worth. 11 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Key Largo, FL
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location: 25.31, -80.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 221117
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
617 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Aviation
GenerallyVFR with shower chances increasing later in the period
as a front approaches. Some sub-vfr morning fog and low clouds
could impact the terminals over the next few hours, particularly
at apf. Flow will veer from the E to sse over the period.

Prev discussion issued 531 am est Mon jan 22 2018
update...

patchy fog has developed in portions of the interior. Reports of
visibility of one eighth to one quarter of a mile form hendry
county as well as northern interior collier county. Therefore, a
dense fog advisory has been issued for most of the interior areas.

Prev discussion... Issued 400 am est Mon jan 22 2018
discussion...

models are coming into better agreement with the weather for the
week. A weak 500mb ridge is sliding across the region today, as a
surface high, sitting to the northeast, begins to be pushed off to
the east. This is advance of a low pressure system currently over
the plains.

A strong 500mb low will move from the central plains, to the
northeast, and is progged to be over the great lakes region by
tomorrow morning. This system has a fairly vigorous surface low
associated with it. Models indicate that the low should remain
around 995mb for the next couple of days, with some fluctuation in
strength. This will bring a cold front out of east texas and
across the gulf states today and tonight. However, by tomorrow,
the low is pulling off to the northeast, somewhere north of
buffalo, ny by mid Tuesday morning. This will pull much of the
energy away from south florida. The GFS has moistened up quite a
bit since yesterday mornings run, and is now in better agreement
with the ECMWF with the precipitation actually making it to the
cwa. It is just much weaker than it would be if the low had
tracked further south.

Ahead of the front models are indicating there could be around
1000 j kg of CAPE over the area for Tuesday afternoon. With
diurnal heating, this could allow some thunderstorm activity to
pop up. So, have added a slight chance of thunderstorms for all of
south florida for tomorrow afternoon. 500mb temps are showing to
be around -9c on the NAM sounding and a touch colder on the gfs.

The NAM model sounding is showing freezing level of around 13k.

This would also favor the development of some thunderstorm
activity.

The models have progressed the front further away from the
area, not stalling it until it is well over the florida straits
now. The GFS is quicker with the front, drying the area out by
Wednesday. The ECMWF on the other hand slows the front down as it
moves through. This would keep some shower activity over the
region through the day on Wednesday. Given this, kept a low end
chance of showers for much of the area through Wednesday
afternoon.

This front is not particularly strong for south florida.

Temperatures on Wednesday do look about 5 to 10 degrees cooler,
but the dew points remain in the 60s for a couple days behind the
front.

By Thursday, high pressure is building well to the north of the
area. This high will bring a fairly tight pressure gradient to the
area, causing some breezy conditions, out of the east, to develop
for the latter half of the week. This may bring a few coastal
showers onshore for the atlantic coast on Friday and Saturday.

By Sunday morning, the next low pressure system is progged to
developed over the northern gulf. This low looks to attach itself
to a cold front that will be quickly moving across the central
us. This will increase rain chances for south florida once again
for Sunday. Models indicate the front may begin to move through
the area Sunday night, with some uncertainty if it will clear the
area before the end of the forecast package. For now, have a
chance of showers in the forecast for south florida, with maybe a
few thunderstorms on the southern atlantic waters.

Marine...

seas are forecast to run 1 to 3 feet across the atlantic waters
and up to 2 feet in the gulf, for the next couple of days. A cold
front will bring a northeasterly to northerly wind to the region
Tuesday night. The front will also bring a chance of showers, and
perhaps some isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. The front
is forecast to push out of the area sometime on Wednesday. High
pressure will build to the north beginning Thursday. This will
bring breezy conditions to all south florida waters for the
latter half of the week, into the weekend. The wind will cause
seas to build to 7 to 9 feet by the end of the week.

The east wind today of 10 to 12 kts would correlate to a moderate
risk of rip currents. For the latter half of the week, a
northeasterly wind of 15 to 30 kts across the atlantic waters
would result in a high risk of rip currents, which would likely
persist through the weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 77 68 79 64 10 20 40 50
fort lauderdale 77 69 78 66 0 20 40 50
miami 79 71 80 67 0 20 40 40
naples 81 66 77 63 10 30 40 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... Dense fog advisory until 9 am est this morning for flz063-066-
067-070-071.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 13
marine... 13
aviation... 27 jt and 02 rag
beach forecast... 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 11 mi144 min 67°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 20 mi144 min 65°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 21 mi84 min E 14 G 15 74°F 73°F1018.7 hPa (+0.7)
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 21 mi144 min 66°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi144 min 69°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi84 min E 17 G 20 73°F 73°F1019.4 hPa (+0.6)
TBYF1 26 mi144 min 69°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 29 mi144 min 64°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 30 mi54 min E 8.9 G 12 72°F 69°F1018.7 hPa
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 30 mi144 min 68°F
LRIF1 33 mi144 min 67°F
BKYF1 33 mi144 min 68°F
NRRF1 34 mi144 min 68°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi144 min 65°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi144 min 67°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi144 min 65°F
HREF1 43 mi144 min 66°F
SREF1 44 mi144 min 64°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 45 mi144 min 68°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL13 mi28 minE 610.00 miFair70°F70°F100%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E9E13E7NE9E12NE12E9NE11E9NE6E7E7E8E8E8E8E7E9E7E6E5E6E6
1 day agoCalmNW4E7E8E10NE10NE10E10E7E6NE6NE6NE5N4CalmNE4E7NE4E4E6E7NE7E10E7
2 days agoNW7N8N8N7NE9NE10E9
G17
E12NE8NE11NE7NE7N6N6N3CalmNW3NW5NW6N5NW3N3CalmNW4

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida
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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:33 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 AM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:02 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:01 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.81.30.70.2-0-00.20.71.31.722.121.510.40-0.100.40.91.41.8

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:49 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:16 AM EST     -1.86 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:49 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:20 AM EST     1.16 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:20 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:20 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:48 PM EST     1.07 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-0.1-0.8-1.5-1.8-1.7-1.3-0.60.10.81.11.10.70.2-0.4-1.1-1.7-1.8-1.5-0.9-0.20.40.91.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.