Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Key Largo, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:06PM Thursday May 24, 2018 9:36 PM EDT (01:36 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 2:27AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 917 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Rest of tonight..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Bay waters rough. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Bay waters rough. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night and Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night and Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 917 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis..A tropical disturbance is expected to lift north into the gulf of mexico this weekend, bringing deteriorating boating conditions, especially over the local gulf waters. Widespread showers and embedded Thunderstorms may bring locally strong winds, higher waves, and occasional lightning with any Thunderstorms. Please continue to Monitor the latest outlooks from the national hurricane center on the tropical disturbance through the memorial day weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas building to 6 to 8 feet towards the end of the memorial day weekend. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 24, 2018 at 1200 utc... 2 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 4 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east of lake worth. 7 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Key Largo, FL
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location: 25.31, -80.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 242353
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
753 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Aviation
Vcsh this evening for the northern atlantic terminals, or even
vcts at times. Otherwise,VFR conditions should prevail tonight
with winds becoming mainly light and variable late tonight. MVFR
cigs vis are possible Friday late morning and through the
afternoon hours, with vcts after 18z.

Ese wind 10 kt to 15 kt from Friday mid morning through the end
of the TAF period.

Prev discussion issued 727 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
update...

the showers and thunderstorms that been occurring over the
western interior areas of south florida this afternoon have
dissipated early this evening, as some showers have developed over
the atlantic waters and push west into the east coast metro
areas. The short range models have continued to show showers and a
few thunderstorms developing over the east coast metro areas late
tonight into early Friday morning, due to land breeze interacting
with the easterly wind flow. Therefore, the pops have been lower
for the interior and west coast metro areas for tonight, while
keeping the pops in the scattered range late tonight for the east
coast metro areas. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time
and no other changes are planned at this time.

Update... 54 bnb
prev discussion... Issued 406 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Watching tropical disturbance working northward into gulf of mexico
Potential for heavy rains flooding and isolated tornadoes this weekend
Threat of rip currents increasing both beaches this weekend
Discussion...

memorial day weekend...

a trough of low pressure will remain over the central gulf of
mexico as high pressure remains over the western atlantic waters
through the memorial day weekend. This should allow for the
tropical disturbance over the yucatan channel to move slowly
northward into the central or eastern gulf of mexico. However, the
moisture associated with the circulation of the system will be
working into south florida this memorial day weekend leading to
showers and even a few thunderstorms. Therefore, pops will remain
in the likely to categorical range over south florida. Rainfall
could also be heavy at times leading to possible flooding
conditions. More on this in the hydro section below.

South florida will also be in a favorable environment for
possible tornadoes this weekend as the winds will be turning in
height over south florida, due to the tropical disturbance moving
northward through the central or eastern gulf of mexico.

Therefore, will continue to mention this threat of isolated
tornadoes in the hwo outlook for south florida for Saturday and
Sunday.

Please continue to monitor the latest outlooks from the national
hurricane center on the tropical disturbance through the memorial
day weekend.

Extended forecast...

the long range models have the tropical disturbance moving into
the southern gulf coast states middle of next week before moving
northeast into the mid atlantic states late next week. A trough of
low pressure extending from the tropical disturbance will be
moving slowly southward through the florida peninsula during this
time. This will keep the winds in a south to southwest direction
keeping the tropical moisture in place. Therefore, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the
highest pops over the northern areas for the middle to end of next
week.

Marine...

the winds will be southeast tonight into Friday with speeds
increasing from 10 to 15 knots tonight to breezy conditions by
Friday. The winds will then become more southerly this memorial
day weekend, as the wind speeds will be increasing to at least 20
to 20 knots. The offshore gulf waters could also approach gale
force conditions late Saturday into early Sunday. The atlantic seas
will also be increasing from 1 to 3 feet tonight into Friday to
at least 7 feet by the second half the memorial day weekend.

The gulf seas will also increase from 2 feet or less tonight into
Friday to 7 to 11 feet by the second half of the memorial day
weekend.

Beach forecast...

the threat of rip currents will also be increasing along both
beaches of south florida this memorial day weekend, due to the
increase winds.

Hydrology...

the short range models are showing the pwat's values getting up
into the 2 to 2.4 inches this memorial day weekend over south
florida. This is in the 90 percentile to 100 percentile range of
the pwat values for this time of year. This will lead to heavy
rainfall conditions along with possible flooding across south
florida this memorial day weekend, as the grounds are saturated
from the heavy rainfall last week into early this week. An hydro
outlook will also be issued on the forecast rainfall amounts for
this memorial day weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 73 83 74 80 50 50 40 70
fort lauderdale 75 82 76 80 50 50 50 80
miami 74 83 75 81 50 50 60 80
naples 72 83 73 81 20 70 80 90

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 17 ar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 10 mi157 min 86°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 11 mi97 min 84°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 11 mi157 min 83°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi157 min 82°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 15 mi157 min 83°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi157 min 85°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 20 mi97 min 83°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi97 min 86°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 21 mi97 min ESE 9.9 G 11 80°F 80°F1016.9 hPa (+0.5)
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 21 mi97 min 83°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi97 min E 9.9 G 9.9 79°F 79°F1017.5 hPa (+0.5)
TBYF1 26 mi97 min 86°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 29 mi97 min 82°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 30 mi97 min 86°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 30 mi49 min E 7 G 11 80°F 82°F1016.4 hPa
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 30 mi157 min ENE 5.1 83°F
LRIF1 33 mi97 min 83°F
BKYF1 33 mi97 min 85°F
NRRF1 34 mi97 min 83°F
WWEF1 36 mi157 min 82°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi97 min 80°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 37 mi157 min 82°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 37 mi157 min 81°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi97 min 81°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 38 mi157 min 83°F
CWAF1 39 mi157 min 82°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi97 min 82°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi97 min 82°F
HREF1 43 mi97 min 80°F
SREF1 44 mi97 min 83°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 45 mi97 min 82°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 45 mi97 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 80°F1016.2 hPa (+0.4)73°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL13 mi1.7 hrsENE 610.00 miFair80°F73°F83%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE5E5E4E4E3E3E3E4E3E4E6E9E7E9E9E11E11E9E7E6NE6E6Calm
1 day agoE8E9E9E8E7E7E6E6E7E5E6E10E12E11E11E13
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2 days ago----E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida
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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:07 AM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:30 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:44 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:57 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.71.31.82.22.42.31.91.40.70.2-0.1-0.10.30.81.422.42.52.21.81.20.70.3

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:39 AM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:31 AM EDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:12 PM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:06 PM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.1-0.40.30.811.10.70-0.8-1.5-1.8-1.8-1.5-0.8-00.61.11.31.20.6-0.3-1-1.6-1.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.