Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Key Largo, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:19PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:12 PM EST (21:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:41PMMoonset 7:46AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 907 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Thursday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Friday night and Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Saturday night..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 907 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis..Breezy southeast wind with isolated showers are expected today and tonight as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of an approaching cold front. Small craft operators should exercise caution due to wind near 20 knots and seas building to 5 to 6 feet in atlantic waters tonight. Lower winds and seas are expected Thursday through the weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..Southeast wind around 20 knots and seas of 6 feet through tonight. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of feb 18, 2019 at 1200 utc... 2 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 8 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 9 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 13 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Key Largo, FL
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location: 25.31, -80.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 202100
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
400 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Discussion
Current radar shows a few swift moving rain showers lurking
offshore the east coast this afternoon -- wouldn't be surprised
if they moved inland as the day progresses, especially with breezy
se flow going on. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly clear skies
will prevail for the duration of the evening before some low-mid
level clouds advect in from a brief burst in shallow low-level
moisture. SREF is hinting at the chance for fog tomorrow morning,
though confidence is too low to mention in the grids at this time
-- am thinking it is more of a low cig event and or mist,
especially since winds are favored to remain near or above 5 mph
throughout the night for the western central interior. Low temps
are expected to drop into the mid-upper 60s across the interior
and gulf coast with low-mid 70s across the east coast, coming
close to breaking warm minimum temps... See climate section
below...

for the next couple of days, mid-level ridging aloft will promote
a generally stable and warm air mass across the region, allowing
for well above average temperatures at all climate sites. For the
most part, moisture will stay relatively limited... Model derived
pwat values run 0.70-1.20 inches through Friday. This along with
subsidence will keep rain chances on the lower side, with pops
capped at 30% through Friday evening.

By the weekend, increasing moisture levels look to plague the
region, increasing rain chances in the process. No thunderstorms
are anticipated as 0-3 km bulk shear stays on the lighter side and
cape values remain rather weak. On Sunday, a developing low
pressure across the great lakes region will extend a cold front
across the fl panhandle and central eastern gulf of mexico. As the
aforementioned mid-level ridge weakens and retreats
southeastward, this cold front will begin its march towards the
cwa throughout the course of the day.

By Monday, this front comes fairly close to passing through the
region as. Right now, long range models (gfs and ecmwf) have the
front stalling near lake okeechobee. Whether or not the front
makes it this far south is really up to how far southeast the
ridge retreats, but either way it shouldn't be very impactful
other than providing scattered rain showers early next week.

Marine
Breezy SE to E winds, passing showers, and building seas are
expected to continue tonight over the atlantic waters as the
pressure gradient tightens. Small craft should exercise caution as
winds could reach 15 to 20 knots with seas around 5 to 6 feet in
and around the gulf stream. Winds and seas subside somewhat
tomorrow through the weekend, though small craft exercise caution
may be in place again at times.

A NE swell could impact palm beach county tonight into mid morning
tomorrow. While coastal flood advisory conditions are not
forecast, some increased surf and wave run up may be possible. A
high risk of rip currents is in effect through tomorrow and may
be expanded into Friday.

Aviation
Although isolated showers are possible throughout the period,
coverage should be sparse and impact minimal, so not included in
tafs. Similar scenario regarding cig restrictions; generallyVFR
conditions will prevail. Southeast wind 15-20 kt will remain gusty
until around sunset, then diminish to 5-10 kt. Southeast wind
returns Thursday at speeds of 10 to 15 kt.

Climate
Record highs and warm mins for the next two days...

fll and apf have the best chance to at least tie their
record warm min... February record high min temps may be broken
or tied the next couple days as well.

Feb 21 feb 22
hi-max hi-min hi-max hi-min
apf 89 2018 70 2014 87 2018 69 2014
pbi 87 1989 75 2014 89 1974 74 2018
fll 86 1967 76 2014 87 2011 74 2008
mia 86 1989 75 1989 87 1987 76 1971

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 72 82 71 82 10 10 30 20
fort lauderdale 75 82 74 82 10 10 20 20
miami 74 82 74 83 10 10 10 20
naples 70 84 68 85 10 20 10 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Thursday evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 03 fell
marine... 03 fell
aviation... 23 sbk
climate... 03 fell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MDKF1 7 mi133 min 79°F
THRF1 9 mi133 min 79°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 10 mi133 min 81°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 11 mi73 min 80°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 11 mi133 min 80°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi133 min 79°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 15 mi133 min 79°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi133 min 80°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 20 mi73 min 79°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 21 mi73 min 81°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi73 min ESE 16 G 17 77°F 78°F1018.8 hPa (-1.9)
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi73 min 80°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 21 mi73 min SE 14 G 16 78°F 78°F1018.1 hPa (-2.0)
TBYF1 26 mi73 min 82°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 29 mi73 min 80°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 30 mi73 min 82°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 30 mi61 min ESE 13 G 15 79°F 79°F1017.7 hPa
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 30 mi73 min E 8.9 80°F
BKYF1 33 mi73 min 81°F
LRIF1 33 mi73 min 82°F
NRRF1 34 mi73 min 80°F
WWEF1 36 mi133 min 80°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi73 min 78°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 37 mi133 min 80°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi73 min 80°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 37 mi133 min 79°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 38 mi73 min 79°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 38 mi73 min 82°F
CWAF1 39 mi133 min 82°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi73 min 79°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi73 min 78°F
HREF1 43 mi73 min 77°F
SREF1 44 mi73 min 78°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 45 mi73 min ESE 15 G 18 79°F 79°F1017.2 hPa (-1.7)69°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 45 mi73 min 79°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL13 mi77 minSE 11 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F69°F67%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS6SE5SE5E7E6SE7SE8SE6SE6SE5SE4SE5SE4SE5SE3SE3S7SE8SE8S9SE8SE6SE6SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida
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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:41 AM EST     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:45 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:53 AM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:09 PM EST     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:17 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:13 PM EST     2.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.2-0.7-0.8-0.40.31.222.62.82.51.91.10.3-0.4-0.6-0.50.10.91.82.42.82.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:26 AM EST     -2.82 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:45 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:53 AM EST     2.08 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:56 PM EST     -2.50 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:18 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:17 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:06 PM EST     1.84 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:59 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.2-2.8-2.7-2.2-1.20.11.21.92.11.81-0.2-1.4-2.2-2.5-2.2-1.4-0.40.81.51.81.71-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.