Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Florida City, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:34PM Thursday December 13, 2018 2:41 PM EST (19:41 UTC) Moonrise 11:42AMMoonset 11:12PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ657 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 1024 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east southeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of sprinkles in the morning.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and south southeast 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and south southwest 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Thunderstorms likely late in the evening. Showers through the night. A chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers through the day. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North northwest winds around 5 knots nearshore and north northwest 5 to 10 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and north 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday night and Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and north 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 931 Am Cst Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis..Onshore flow will strengthen over the marine area today and tonight as high pressure shifts east and a wave of low pressure moves across the northern gulf. Winds become southwesterly to westerly Friday and Friday night as another area of low pressure lifts across the mississippi and tennessee valley region. Northwesterly flow returns behind the passing cold front this weekend. Strong winds and rough seas will bring small craft advisory conditions to portions of the marine area today through early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florida City, FL
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location: 25.32, -81.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 131734
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1234 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Aviation
Most terminals should see no more than a sprinkle through the
evening, with pbi being the exception as showers are expected
nearby and offshore. As the front nears, winds and rain chances will
increase on Friday. Included a prob30 at apf since that terminal
might see some gulf showers that could produce sub-vfr impacts.

Otherwise,VFR is expected through most of the period except for
brief bouts of sub-vfr with fast moving showers.

Prev discussion issued 938 am est Thu dec 13 2018
update...

some shallow convection continues but the relatively dry
atmosphere is limiting much in terms of a wetting rain or even
minor accumulations. Have updated the forecast to mention
sprinkles this morning as that is what most area could possibly
see from this activity. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with
no additional changes.

Prev discussion... Issued 340 am est Thu dec 13 2018
discussion...

this morning's low temps are running around 10-15 degrees warmer
than this time yesterday morning as winds return from the east and
moisture content rises. With this in mind, Thursday's high temps
are forecast to reach the upper 70s across south florida with a
few near 80 temps in the SW region, right about average (perhaps a
degree or two higher in some spots) for this time of year. As
winds continue to veer to a more southerly direction throughout
the day today, an influx in low-level moisture will advect into
the region with derived pwat values approaching 1.25 inches. A few
showers can't be ruled out today through tonight, especially the
ne portions of the cwa, but most areas will remain fairly dry.

Friday into this weekend still remains the hot topic for weather
debate. As high pressure continues to push eastward into the
western atlantic and a rather impressive low pressure system
across tx swings into the gulf states, south florida weather will
be in a state of limbo as models continue to diverge. Now only
about 36-60 hours out, it is a bit unusual that both the global
models (gfs and ecmwf) continue to differ on fropa. GFS has
delayed a bit to a more Saturday morning to Saturday afternoon
fropa with both ECMWF and NAM agreeing on a Saturday night into
Sunday morning fropa. 06z wpc guidance for 12z Saturday morning
puts the cold front smack dab in the center of the cwa. Because of
this, grids are continuing to split the difference of the exact
timing of fropa, now trending towards Saturday morning to Saturday
afternoon time frame.

Based on this forecast timing, the bulk of showers and
thunderstorms would hold off until Friday night, with only low
chances during the day Friday for the east coast and a slight
chance for the NW portions of the cwa. Regarding risk of strong
convection, 06z SPC analysis for day 2 placed central florida and
northern florida in a slight risk, with a marginal risk touching
the northern fringes of lake okeechobee, central glades county,
and the far NW tip of hendry county. 0-3 km shear values are
approaching 40 kt across the regions as well, though the best
dynamics lift still favor to the north of the region. Regardless,
there appears to at least some risk of some strong wind gusts in
the projected convective band Friday night into Saturday morning,
especially over northern portions of south florida. Needless to
say, this risk and its evolution based on refinements to fropa
timing, will be closely monitored.

One things for certain is that the aforementioned cold front will
move through this weekend, bringing an end to shower and
thunderstorm chances as well as some cooler drier air. The timing
differences have already been mentioned, but by Sunday at the
latest, the front should clear the region.

Into early next week, high pressure returns and NW winds will
prevail, allowing for dry and pleasant conditions, along with
cooler temps back below climatological norms. Dry air will
continue to filter in through at least mid week.

Marine...

small craft exercise caution across the atlantic waters on
Thursday as E SE winds of 15-20 kt prevail. Seas will be 4-5 feet
with occasional 6 feet seas. Ahead of a week-end storm system,
south and southeast wind will increase late Thursday night into
early Friday morning, and this may necessitate an additional small
craft advisory for the atlantic waters.

Although a low chance of showers will exist beforehand, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase Friday into Friday night as a
cold front approaches.

Beach forecast...

high risk of rip currents due to NE swell combined with E SE wind
of 15-20 mph is in effect for atlantic waters through Thursday
evening. This risk may continue into Friday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 69 82 69 79 10 20 60 50
fort lauderdale 72 82 72 80 10 10 50 50
miami 71 82 70 80 10 10 50 40
naples 66 80 67 76 10 40 80 50

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 7 pm est this evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 02 rag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CWAF1 2 mi161 min 68°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 4 mi101 min 68°F
SREF1 4 mi101 min 69°F
NRRF1 6 mi101 min 67°F
HREF1 7 mi101 min 69°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 7 mi161 min 67°F
LRIF1 8 mi101 min 69°F
WWEF1 8 mi161 min 67°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 8 mi101 min 65°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 11 mi101 min 65°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 16 mi101 min 68°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 16 mi101 min 73°F
BKYF1 17 mi101 min 69°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 18 mi101 min 68°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 18 mi101 min 66°F
TBYF1 20 mi101 min 67°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi101 min 68°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 23 mi101 min ENE 4.1 68°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 26 mi161 min 68°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 27 mi101 min 69°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 27 mi161 min 68°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 28 mi101 min 68°F
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 29 mi101 min 68°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 30 mi161 min 67°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 31 mi101 min 69°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 31 mi161 min 68°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 32 mi101 min 70°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 32 mi101 min 68°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 33 mi161 min 67°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 33 mi161 min 68°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 34 mi41 min SE 13 G 15 75°F 69°F1018.3 hPa (-2.2)63°F
MDKF1 34 mi161 min 68°F
THRF1 36 mi161 min 68°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 41 mi41 min SE 15 G 16 76°F 78°F1019.1 hPa (-2.3)
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 42 mi41 min WSW 8.9 G 16 78°F 71°F1018.1 hPa (-2.2)
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 48 mi51 min 76°F 1017.3 hPa (-2.6)65°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL36 mi45 minESE 13 G 2010.00 miLight Rain79°F61°F55%1018.9 hPa

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Last 24hrE9E7E7NE5NE4E4E4E8E7E7E6E5E5E7E6N3E3NE5E9SE5----E12E13
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NW13N12N7NW5NE4N6N4NW6W4NW8NW8NW9N9NW10N7N9N6NW9N7N8NE8E9E10
2 days agoW12W10NW5W4W5W7NW7NW7N6N6NW4NW7CalmNW4N4NW4NW4N7NW11NW15NW16
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NW15N14NW11

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River entrance, Florida
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Shark River entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:04 AM EST     4.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:23 PM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST     3.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:12 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:52 PM EST     1.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.73.64.34.64.54.13.52.821.30.90.60.71.222.83.23.33.12.82.42.11.9

Tide / Current Tables for Flamingo, Florida Bay, Florida
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Flamingo
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:35 AM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 AM EST     2.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:05 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:42 PM EST     1.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:12 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.81.11.72.22.52.52.321.61.20.80.50.30.30.40.81.31.71.81.71.51.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.