Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Florida City, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:49PM Thursday August 24, 2017 12:54 AM EDT (04:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:43AMMoonset 9:03PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ657 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 942 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then numerous showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and south southwest 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then numerous showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Winds southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and southwest around 10 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds around 5 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1030 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 23 2017
Synopsis..High pressure over the north central gulf will weaken from west to east for the remainder of the week in response to tropical depression harvey tracking northward over the western gulf. As a result increased swell from harvey will begin to propagate east and north over the north central gulf and marine area later in the week and over the weekend. All marine interests should stay tuned to the national hurricane center and their local forecast office in mobile for further updates on the forecast track of harvey and its impacts later in the week and over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florida City, FL
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location: 25.32, -81.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 232345
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
745 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Aviation
Most of the convection from earlier this afternoon has diminished
across S fl withVFR CIGS at this time. A few iso shra starting
to initiate over the coastal waters will gradually move inland
closer to midnight. Expect scattered showers brief MVFR CIGS vis
with passing shra. Current light winds increase again to near 10
kts out of the east late this morning and afternoon.

Update
Robust convection of this afternoon has for the most part
diminished and exited the region, and near-term models suggest
evening will be relatively quiet across south florida. Thereafter,
expected increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms along
the east coast. Have adjusted pops to reflect this thinking.

Temperatures are already rain cooled in the upper 70s to low
80s, and will fall very little overnight.

Prev discussion issued 414 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017
discussion...

short term (tonight through Friday night)
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms have impacted south
florida today and this activity is likely to continue into
tonight. Very heavy downpours does bring mainly urban flood
concern in the near term. Culprit for the abundant precipitation
is tropical disturbance, generally centered just south and west of
south florida, will remain nearly in place through at least Thursday
night. Plume of moisture (pwats 2.1-2.4 inches) will remain over
south florida through the period, thus numerous showers and
thunderstorms will persist. Locally heavy rainfall is possible,
and as the prolonged rainfall continues, more and more locations
will see saturated ground. See hydro section below for details on
flood potential. By Friday, a weak cold front will enter north
florida, and will draw up the tropical disturbance to the
northeast. Development of this system is not expected in the short
term, with NHC only calling for a 10 percent chance of tropical
cyclone formation through the end of the work-week.

Generally overcast conditions and widespread rainfall will curb
diurnal heating, but do expect the few peaks in clouds to allow
maxima to still rise well into the 80s, with some low 90s, each
afternoon. West palm beach set a daily record warm minimum
yesterday (Tuesday), only falling to 82f. The old record was 81
degrees from 2000. With most areas seeing rain cooled air over the
next few days, additional heat records are not anticipated.

Long term (Saturday through Monday)
front will stall over central florida into early next week, and
the tropical disturbance will only slowly move northeast into the
atlantic and out to sea (when chances for development increase
slightly). Across south florida, abundant tropical moisture and
deep southwesterly flow will provide ample conditions for numerous
showers and thunderstorms, with potential for heavy rainfall
continuing.

Marine...

tropical disturbance in the vicinity of south florida is not
expected to develop into a tropical depression or storm, but will
bring scattered to numerous thunderstorms to regional waters into
the weekend. Southerly wind of 10 to 15 knots is expected away
from these thunderstorms, with the potential for some higher
southwesterly wind Friday and Saturday. Speeds will closely be
monitored for the potential need for a small craft advisory.

Aviation...

some scattered showers have developed over the atlantic waters
during the overnight hours and moved inland, with tempos for -ra
in place for mia and tmb. Brief MVFR CIGS vis are possible with
the heavier showers. TS has not been an issue so far, but vcts
will be introduced after 15z at all terminals. Current light winds
increase again to near 10 knots out of the east late this morning
and afternoon.

Hydrology...

overall, pwats of 2 to 2.5 inches will dominate south florida into
early next week. A tropical disturbance over the region will bring
plenty of lift to induce numerous showers and thunderstorms during
this period. The system will remain nearly stationary until
Friday, when a cold front moves into central florida and stalls.

This front will lift the disturbance northeastward, only gradually
away from south florida over the weekend. Still, deep, moist
southwesterly flow will continue the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms over the region. Locally heavy rainfall is expected
throughout this period, with wpc suggesting widespread 2 to 5
inch amounts. However, the flood problems will be most likely
where localized much higher rainfall amounts occur. At this point,
models suggest the heaviest rain and highest flood potential will
not onset until later Thursday. Thus, no flood watch will be
issued this evening. One could be issued as early as early
Thursday morning.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 79 90 77 90 50 70 50 60
fort lauderdale 78 88 78 88 60 60 50 50
miami 77 89 77 88 60 60 50 50
naples 77 90 79 86 50 60 60 70

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 23 sk
marine... 67 mt
aviation... 67 mt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 41 mi54 min E 5.1
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 42 mi54 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 82°F 87°F1011.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL36 mi56 minE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F77°F93%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4N3SW5W3N3NE3CalmN3CalmS8NW9N3N4CalmCalmNE13
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1 day agoNW9N3N12N3NE6E7E6E3E4CalmE6E5NE9E9E11E11E8E9E8E6E6E5SE4Calm
2 days agoE9E8E6E7E9E10E8E12E12E13E7
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Tide / Current Tables for Whitewater Bay, Florida
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Whitewater Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 AM EDT     0.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:20 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:31 PM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.100.10.30.50.70.70.70.70.60.50.40.30.20.20.40.60.70.80.80.80.70.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River entrance, Florida
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Shark River entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:30 AM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:35 PM EDT     4.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.42.63.5443.73.22.51.81.10.70.71.72.93.94.44.54.23.62.92.11.30.70.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.