Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 3:19 AM   Moonset 3:30 PM

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GMZ657 Expires:202405050300;;608118 Fzus52 Kmfl 041401 Cwfmfl
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service miami fl 1000 am edt Sat may 4 2024
atlantic coastal waters from jupiter inlet to ocean reef out to 60 nm and gulf coastal waters from east cape sable to chokoloskee out 20 nm and chokoloskee to bonita beach out 60 nm - .including the waters of biscayne bay and lake okeechobee.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz656-657-676-050300- coastal waters from chokoloskee to bonita beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from east cape sable to chokoloskee fl out 20 nm- waters from chokoloskee to bonita beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- 1000 am edt Sat may 4 2024
Rest of today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Wave detail: E se 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of sprinkles in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt nearshore and E 10 to 15 kt offshore. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: E se 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms late in the evening. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: E se 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sun night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: E se 2 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers late in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: E se 2 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt nearshore and E se 10 to 15 kt offshore. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: E se 2 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers late in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms. Tue night - E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms late in the evening. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ600 945 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increasing to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS62 KMFL 041604 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1204 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

As an upper level perturbation advects across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and into the Florida Panhandle, a slight moistening in the 850mb to 700mb layer will occur in conjunction with colder 500mb values aloft (-9C to -10C). With the low-level flow remaining out of an easterly direction due to surface ridging remaining in firm control, the Atlantic sea-breeze will propagate inland with ease.
This will allow for convergence of the stronger Atlantic sea-breeze and weaker Gulf sea-breeze to occur over southwestern Florida.
Mesoscale ascent along this boundary could allow for an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop later this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates remain fairly meager at 5 to 5.5 C/km and forecasted CAPE values appear to be marginal at best with CAMS hinting at values near 1000 J/kg. With the lack of shear in the vertical profile, the main hazards with thunderstorm activity today will be lightning and heavy rainfall concerns. In addition, given the orientation of the isolated storms along the boundary, certainly cannot rule out a brief funnel cloud if vorticity is ingested into a parent storm.
PoPs during the afternoon hours across southwestern Florida peak in the 30 to 50 percent range with activity propagating towards the Gulf coast metro as sunset approaches. Forecasted afternoon highs will top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees across southwestern Florida with highs in the low to mid 80s across the eastern half of the area thanks to the prevalent onshore flow. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the east coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s. A similar pattern will take place tomorrow with morning coastal showers along the east coast and then the potential of showers and storms across inland southwestern Florida tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Surface high pressure stays focused to the east in the Atlantic, maintaining the light to moderate east to east-southeasterly flow across the region. 500 mb heights begin to increase into mid to late week as upper level ridging will build into the region from the west.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day next week with eastern areas more likely to see any weak activity during the early afternoon hours with the inland progression of the sea breeze. The east coast breeze will continue to push further inland with slightly better chances for isolated showers or storms across Southwest Florida. The PoPs then look to diminish even more into late next week as the upper level ridge strengthens.

The temperatures also respond as afternoon highs could reach the mid to even upper 90s across interior locations by Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly flow will continue for the east coast terminals today with KAPF becoming westerly later this afternoon with the Gulf breeze. Showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf breeze could impact KAPF later this afternoon/evening. Shower activity overnight could result in intermittent MVFR cigs for the east coast terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly winds with periods of enhancement, especially across the Atlantic waters over the next several days.
Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring locally higher seas and gusty winds in and around shower/thunderstorm activity. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters. During wind enhancements, conditions could reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions.

BEACHES
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this weekend. The risk may remain elevated early next week, especially across the Palm Beach County beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 74 84 74 84 / 20 20 10 20 West Kendall 71 85 71 86 / 20 20 20 20 Opa-Locka 73 85 73 86 / 20 20 10 20 Homestead 74 84 74 85 / 20 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 74 83 74 83 / 20 20 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 74 83 74 84 / 20 20 10 20 Pembroke Pines 74 86 74 87 / 20 20 10 20 West Palm Beach 72 84 72 85 / 20 20 10 20 Boca Raton 73 85 74 85 / 20 20 10 20 Naples 71 88 71 89 / 40 30 10 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Whitewater Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Shark River entrance
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Sat -- 04:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:07 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:11 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:34 PM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
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Shark River entrance, Florida, Tide feet

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