Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM   Moonset 2:23 PM

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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 1000 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of today - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Tonight - E winds 15 to 20 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers through the night. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Sat night - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers. Sun - E winds 15 to 20 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sun night - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers through the night. Mon and Mon night - E se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. Tue - E se winds around 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis -
gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will prevail over the local waters through the end of the work week. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms will be possible during this time frame. Easterly winds may increase to cautionary to near hazardous levels over the weekend as high pressure builds over the western atlantic -
gulf stream hazards: none
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 02, 2024 at 12 utc - .
7 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 10 nautical miles east of lake worth. 17 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 031135 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 735 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

While models depict a rather complex weather pattern dominating the whole E CONUS on Friday, closer to the area a mid level ridge and sfc high pressure will remain in control of the peninsula weather during the weekend. A transient trough and associated storm systems well to the north will flatten a bit the ridge today, with pressure gradients again becoming a little tighter in the afternoon hours. Thus, expect periods of easterly winds becoming gusty, mainly over the Atlantic coast of SoFlo.

Models also keep low dew points in place with the upstream air mass, which will help in keeping POPs/rain chances low. The only lifting mechanism will be again afternoon sea breezes, which will serve as focal points for limited convection to develop. But with the stronger easterly flow, it is likely that most of the shower/storm activity will be pushed towards the interior/western portions of SoFlo.

The weather pattern becomes a little more favorable for afternoon showers on Saturday as an area of enhanced moisture moves into SoFlo from the Atlantic side. But model layer analyses keep most of the moisture in a shallow layer around 850-700 mb, along with highest POPs in the 25-40 percent range, favoring the Gulf coast. Any deeper convection should again follow the enhanced lifting of sea breeze boundaries, although a key difference Saturday afternoon is that overall coverage of showers seems more widespread than previous days.

Despite the better chances of rain on Saturday, temperatures will remain warm on both days with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s for the Atlantic coast and interior areas, and around 90 for the west coast of SoFlo.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Long range models show mid-level ridging persisting across the region, keeping the ongoing easterly wind regime over SoFlo through much of the work week. Meanwhile, the remaining enhanced low level moisture from the weekend will gradually dry out, with mainly single digit POPs by mid week. Thus, expect better chances for a few showers and an isolated storm or two on Sunday and Monday afternoon.
Again, deeper convection should follow the sea breeze boundaries as the easterly flow push them inland.

Expect temperatures to remain around or slightly higher than normals. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90 across southwest Florida and interior areas, while remaining in the mid 80s along the east coast. Overnight lows will be in the 60s,

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period although MVFR cigs are possible if a shower directly impacts a terminal. Generally easterly winds prevail through the period with gusts to 20kts possible during the day. KAPF will see an afternoon wind shift to the W-SW again.

MARINE
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Outside of periods of gusty easterly winds, overall benign conditions should prevail across the coastal waters through the weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.
Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Winds could peak in the 12-15 kts range out of the east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 84 73 84 74 / 20 20 30 10 West Kendall 86 70 86 71 / 20 20 30 10 Opa-Locka 86 72 86 72 / 20 20 30 10 Homestead 84 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 83 73 82 74 / 20 20 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 83 73 83 74 / 20 20 30 20 Pembroke Pines 87 73 87 73 / 20 20 30 10 West Palm Beach 84 71 84 72 / 20 20 30 10 Boca Raton 84 73 85 73 / 20 20 30 20 Naples 89 70 88 71 / 10 20 30 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:46 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:11 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:20 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:45 PM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Turkey Point, Biscayne Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:21 AM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:19 AM EDT     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:51 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:49 PM EDT     1.27 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:50 PM EDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current, knots

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