Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homestead Base, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:36PM Friday March 24, 2017 12:18 AM EDT (04:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:55AMMoonset 3:23PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 951 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Rest of tonight..East northeast winds around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening. A chance of showers through the night.
Friday..East northeast winds around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..East winds around 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night through Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Monday night and Tuesday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 951 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis.. A frontal boundary, gradually weakening with time, will continue to move south across the region through the rest of tonight, with marine conditions rapidly deteriorating in its wake. This front is bringing scattered showers and a few Thunderstorms to the local waters, especially over the atlantic. Scattered showers will continue to linger through the overnight hours. Behind the frontal passage, expect east-northeast winds 20-25kts over much of the local waters, including biscayne bay, with seas in excess of 7 feet over the offshore atlantic waters, highest in the gulf stream. Winds will also be around 20 knots in the offshore gulf waters, with seas 4-6 feet. Winds and seas will begin to slowly diminish during the day Friday, especially over the gulf waters, but small craft advisory conditions are likely to continue for the atlantic waters including biscayne bay into Saturday morning. Hazardous marine conditions may linger for the atlantic waters into early Sunday as well, before better boating conditions return for the second half of the weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..East northeast winds of 20-25 knots, gusting to 30 knots, with seas in excess of 7 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of mar 23, 2017 at 1200 utc... 11 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 8 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 12 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 11 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homestead Base, FL
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location: 25.44, -80.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 240102
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
902 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Aviation
Tempos for tsra remain in most of the atlantic terminals through
03z tonight as thunderstorms associated with the passage of a
cold front boundary. MVFR CIGS will also accompany the
heaviest showers, along with possible reduced vis. Vcsh
continues through the overnight hours, but mainlyVFR should
prevail once the active convection moves south of the area.

It will remain breezy tonight, then easterly winds in the 15 to
20 knots range with higher gusts are expected on Friday behind the
front.

Prev discussion /issued 742 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017/
update...

as of 740 pm edt... Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
continues to gradually wane across the region early this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Earlier this afternoon and
evening, it was quite active for late march, with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms producing locally strong to
borderline severe weather that primarily included small hail and
frequent lightning.

Over the next few hours, additional scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible, mainly across eastern areas as the
frontal boundary continues to push south across far southern
florida. The threat for strong storms will be very minimal with
the loss of daytime heating and additional storms moving over
already worked over areas. After late this evening, there will
continue to be the potential for scattered showers streaming into
eastern areas off the atlantic. The flow will become breezy at
times through the night, with northeast/east winds occasionally
gusting 15-25 mph at times especially over eastern areas. Skies
will remain mostly cloudy for most, although there will be some
gradual clearing along the gulf coast late. Low temperatures will
generally be in the 60s.

Prev discussion... /issued 325 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017/
discussion...

near term /through 6 am Friday morning/...

as of 325 pm edt... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
across south florida this afternoon, especially across portions of
the interior and lake region as a weakening frontal boundary
moves south across the region. The convective activity has also
been supported by a piece of shortwave energy rotating through the
flow across central florida, evident in the water vapor satellite
imagery. The storm prediction center continues to highlight all
of south florida in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms,
mainly for isolated hail and damaging winds.

A special 18z upper air release performed at kmfl supports the
ongoing strong/severe thunderstorm risk, which looks to continue
into the early evening hours. Remnants of an EML continue to yield
rather impressive mid-level lapse rates between 7-8 c/km and near
record cold 500 hpa temp around -14.5 c for this time of year.

With plenty of surface heating through the morning and early
afternoon hours, high temperatures topping out well into the 80s
for most areas, coupled with low-level moisture pooling ahead of
the boundary, CAPE values of 1500-2000 j/kg have been observed
across the region, supporting occasional strong to borderline
severe storms.

Remnant convergence along the dissipating front, coupled with the
dynamics associated with the shortwave energy moving through
central florida will continue to support a rather active remainder
of the afternoon and early evening across much of the region.

While a severe thunderstorm with large hail and gusty winds cannot
be ruled out, much of the activity should remain sub-severe, but
still have the potential to produce small hail, brief gusty winds
45-55 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that may
lead to some poor drainage flooding issues in urbanized and low-
lying areas.

For tonight, any lingering thunderstorm activity should rapidly
wane through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating,
and as the aforementioned shortwave energy exits east. Still,
some scattered showers will linger overnight especially across
eastern areas as gusty east/northeasterly flow rapidly moves into
the region in the wake of the frontal boundary. Wind gusts
overnight may occasionally be 15-25 mph at times, especially for
eastern areas. Low temperatures will generally be in the 60s.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...

in the wake of the frontal boundary, which looks to eventually wash
out south of the region, strong high pressure will build to the
north, keeping a tight pressure gradient across the region between
the southern edge of the high and the exiting front. Brisk
east/northeast winds, especially along the east coast, will
continue through the day Friday along with lingering isolated to
widely scattered showers. Slightly drier air will work into the
region beginning Saturday, lowering the threat for rain although
an brief shower can still not be ruled out.

High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to near 80 along
the east coast, to lower and even some mid 80s in the interior and
gulf coast. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to
upper 60s.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...

the long term period will be characterized by an easterly flow
regime, with weak upper-level ridging aloft. An upper-level trough
digging through the lower great lakes early next week will help to
break down the upper-level ridging further, allowing the flow to
become more southerly. Generally fair weather can be expected
through the period, although a few showers streaming in off the
atlantic will be possible from time to time mainly across eastern
areas.

With the easterly flow in place, temperatures will be above normal
for the long term period. Humidity, although not oppressive, will be
higher as well compared to recent days.

Marine...

small craft advisory conditions for much of the local waters
through tonight...

a frontal boundary, gradually weakening with time, will continue to
move south across the region through the rest of today, with marine
conditions rapidly deteriorating in its wake. This front will bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the local waters, especially
over the atlantic and lake okeechobee. With the strongest storms,
locally erratic winds and small hail will be possible, with a low
chance of waterspouts as well.

Behind the frontal passage, expect east-northeast winds 20-25kts
over much of the local waters, including biscayne bay, through the
overnight hours with seas in excess of 7 feet over the offshore
atlantic waters, highest in the gulf stream. Winds will also be
around 20 knots in the offshore gulf waters, with seas 4-6 feet.

Winds and seas will begin to slowly diminish during the day Friday,
especially over the gulf waters, but small craft advisory conditions
are likely to continue for the atlantic waters including biscayne
bay into Saturday morning. Hazardous marine conditions may linger
for the atlantic waters into early Sunday as well, before better
boating conditions return for the second half of the weekend.

A small craft advisory is in effect for the local atlantic waters
including biscayne bay through Saturday morning, and the local gulf
waters this evening through mid-Friday morning. Small craft should
exercise caution tonight in the lake okeechobee waters.

For more details on the marine forecast, see the coastal waters
forecast.

Beach forecast...

a high risk of rip currents will continue for the atlantic beaches
through at least Saturday morning with strong onshore flow. The
rip current risk for the atlantic beaches will likely remain
elevated well into next week as well with continued onshore flow.

Fire weather...

scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
should help mitigate fire weather concerns in the short term, with
many areas seeing a light to soaking rain as a frontal boundary
moves across the region. In the wake of the frontal boundary,
drier air will filter into the region by the end of the weekend
and into early next week, with relative humidity levels
potentially reaching critical values across portions of the
interior and gulf coast.

Aviation...

a cold front dropping southward across the region will continue to
generate unsettled weather over south florida. Through 23/2200z,
vcts conds will affect mainly portions of the east coast TAF sites
and adjacent waters. Expect sct/bkn025 and bkn050, then
decreasing cloud cover and convective activity by late evening
into overnight. Small hail and gusty/erratic winds will be
possible the storms as they move southward along the peninsula.

Behind the front, east northeast winds will increase to around
15-17 kt with occasional higher gusts. However, at kapf, ene
winds will be weaker, only around 12 kt. Breezy conditions should
continue through the night along the east coast TAF sites with
vcsh.

Preliminary point temps/pops
West palm beach 69 78 68 80 / 40 20 20 10
fort lauderdale 71 78 70 80 / 40 20 20 10
miami 70 79 69 81 / 40 20 20 10
naples 63 83 62 81 / 20 10 0 10

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Friday evening for flz168-172-173.

Am... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for amz630-650-651-
670-671.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for gmz656-657-676.

Aviation... 17/ar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 16 mi78 min ENE 34 G 37 71°F 74°F1023.8 hPa (+1.0)
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 22 mi48 min E 21 G 30 73°F 1023.7 hPa
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 47 mi36 min ENE 25 G 31 73°F 1023.9 hPa65°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Force Base, FL4 mi20 minENE 49.00 miLight Rain66°F66°F100%1024.3 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL15 mi25 minE 104.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist68°F64°F90%1024.3 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmW4CalmNW3CalmNW3CalmN5NE3E3NE8NE12E11NE12E12NE15NE10NE13
G22
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1 day agoNW4CalmNW3NW4NW8NW7CalmCalmNW4NW44NW83NE6W4E7E6SE7S5S4S3S3SW4SW4
2 days agoNW3NW3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmN4N4N7NE11E12E7E7
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Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:18 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:47 AM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:49 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:03 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.40.20.10.10.40.81.21.51.51.41.20.90.60.40.20.10.30.71.11.41.51.51.3

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:56 AM EDT     1.25 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:47 AM EDT     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:01 PM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:58 PM EDT     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.3-0.70.10.81.11.21.10.5-0.3-1.1-1.6-1.7-1.5-0.9-0.20.50.91.110.5-0.3-1.3-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.