Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homestead Base, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:54PM Friday August 18, 2017 11:43 PM EDT (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:35AMMoonset 4:23PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 947 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Monday and Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 947 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis.. Light to moderate east-southeast flow will continue over the local south florida waters tonight and early Saturday, before increasing Saturday evening as a tropical wave moves through the region. Seas are forecast to build to 4 feet by Sunday night for atlantic waters. Cautionary conditions will be possible at times on Sunday lasting through early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected over the local waters tonight, becoming more numerous on Saturday and through much of next week as the unsettled pattern continues.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 17, 2017 at 1200 utc... 7 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 11 nautical miles east of port everglades. 11 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 14 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homestead Base, FL
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location: 25.44, -80.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 190150
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
950 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Update
Updated pops for tonight and tomorrow with most recent model data.

This caused pops and chances of thunderstorms to drop over much of
the area into the chance category, and pushed the better chances
into the afternoon, with generally only slight chances for the
morning hours. Otherwise, only tweaked forecast to be in line
with current observations.

Prev discussion issued 755 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
aviation...

convection in the western interior should diminish over the next
couple of hours. Afterwards, should be a quiet night across south
florida. By mid morning, chances of showers and storms increase
quickly. Have added prob30 for tsra at all east coast TAF sites
after 17z. Apf may see some activity later in the afternoon.

Prev discussion... Issued 728 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
update...

convection is still ongoing over portion of the interior and w
this afternoon producing some very heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning. Although the activity observed is not severe, an
isolated stronger storm can not be ruled out before sunset. With
the loss of daytime heating, expect most of the convection to
diminish across south florida with light and variable winds
overnight. As the tropical wave approaches the peninsula tonight
into Saturday, the chance of rain will gradually increase over
the atlantic waters tonight and east coast into Sat morning. The
forecast remains on track.

Prev discussion... Issued 428 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
discussion...

heavy rain possible Saturday into Sunday for south florida...

Friday afternoon through Sunday
a large, well-defined upper-level low is currently centered over the
region. Scattered thunderstorms are developing over the interior
this afternoon. Expect this activity to continue over the
interior and west coast through early evening. Several
thermodynamic ingredients from the 12z adjusted sounding and rap
model soundings indicate that some of the thunderstorms this
afternoon will be strong over the interior and west coast areas.

Cannot rule out one or two severe storms. Hail and gusty winds are
the main threats. Expect thunderstorm activity to diminish after
sunset.

On Saturday, a tropical wave will approach south florida, bringing
rainier than normal conditions from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday morning, and possibly lasting through Sunday afternoon. Most
guidance indicate pwats in the 2.0-2.4" range during much of the
period. There will be a risk of localized street flooding. There
is a chance for sunshine Saturday morning prior to the arrival of
the tropical wave, so can't completely rule out some strong storms
on Saturday afternoon. Again, the primary threat on
Saturday Sunday is for heavy rain and localized flooding.

Sunday night through Friday
Sunday night and Monday, there will be an influence of mid-upper
ridging from the bermuda high, which will serve as a short-lived
break from the higher than normal rain chances. A strong
mid upper-level high pressure area will move westward and anchor
itself over the southeastern united states by Tuesday. At the same
time, the tropical disturbance currently located about 600 miles
east-northeast of the northern leeward islands (invest 92l), is
likely to be approaching the region. NHC indicates a 60% chance of
development as their 2 pm tropical weather outlook. Regardless of
development, this system is likely to bring a chance for enhanced
rainfall to south florida early Tuesday through Wednesday. All
residents and visitors of south florida need to continue to
monitor this tropical disturbance through the weekend.

Even though the threat from 92l should be gone by late next week,
the GFS and other models hint that we could remain in a rainy
pattern associated with a left-over trail of moisture from 92l
combined with a frontal boundary to our north. Low-mid level
southerly winds will advect deep tropical moisture over south
florida toward the boundary, resulting in a continued rainy
pattern that lasts through the week.

Marine...

mostly good boating conditions are expected for south
florida waters off both coasts through the first part of the weekend
with seas 2 feet or less. By Saturday night, winds increase to 15
kt and seas build to around 3 feet for the atlantic waters.

Expect these 3 foot seas to continue through Sunday, with 2-3
foot seas for the gulf waters. By Sunday night, seas build to 4
feet with a few areas of 5 feet possible for the atlantic waters.

Seas averaging around 4 feet can be expected to last through early
next week for the atlantic waters.

Small craft exercise caution conditions may be possible by late
Saturday night or Sunday morning for atlantic waters due to winds
in the 15-20 knot range.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 81 94 80 91 10 50 60 70
fort lauderdale 82 92 80 91 20 50 50 60
miami 81 93 80 91 20 50 50 60
naples 73 94 78 91 30 30 40 60

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 13
discussion... 98 abh
marine... 98 abh
aviation... 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 16 mi163 min 92°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 16 mi43 min NE 7 G 8 86°F 88°F1018 hPa (+2.2)
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 22 mi43 min NE 4.1 G 7 87°F 91°F1016.9 hPa (+2.1)
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 23 mi163 min 93°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 24 mi163 min 94°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 26 mi163 min 91°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 31 mi163 min 93°F
LRIF1 32 mi163 min 90°F
NRRF1 32 mi163 min 87°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 34 mi163 min 92°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 35 mi163 min 85°F
BKYF1 35 mi163 min 94°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi163 min 87°F
HREF1 39 mi163 min 86°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 39 mi163 min 88°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 40 mi163 min 90°F
SREF1 41 mi163 min 89°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 42 mi163 min 92°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 45 mi163 min 90°F
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 47 mi43 min E 1.9 G 4.1 85°F 1017.7 hPa (+2.5)73°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 49 mi163 min 93°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL4 mi45 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds83°F78°F84%1017.2 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL15 mi50 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds82°F75°F82%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmE6E7E8E6E9E11
G17
E10E10E9E7NE5CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW3N3N3N8N3N4N3NE6NE8E9E10E8E6
G14
E9SE7E7E7NE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N5N4Calm--E9E7E9E8E6E7E7E3CalmE5E3

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:58 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:09 AM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:23 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:58 PM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.50.30.20.40.71.21.61.81.71.51.20.80.40.1-0.1-00.30.81.41.81.91.81.6

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:16 AM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:13 AM EDT     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:09 PM EDT     1.71 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-1.1-0.40.30.70.90.90.5-0.3-1.3-2-2.3-2.2-1.7-0.90.111.51.71.60.9-0-1-1.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.