Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmetto Bay, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:48PM Thursday August 24, 2017 12:50 AM EDT (04:50 UTC) Moonrise 8:40AMMoonset 9:00PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 942 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Tonight..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..West southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 942 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Synopsis..A tropical disturbance will remain in the vicinity of south florida through Friday, before gradually lifting northeastward and away from the region this weekend. Periods of Thunderstorms throughout the weekend will bring locally gusty winds and higher seas. Away from convection, south to southwest wind of around 15 kt are expected, with seas of 3-4 feet or less.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 23, 2017 at 1200 utc... 8 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 6 nautical miles east of port everglades. 8 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmetto Bay, FL
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location: 25.62, -80.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 232345
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
745 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Aviation
Most of the convection from earlier this afternoon has diminished
across S fl withVFR CIGS at this time. A few iso shra starting
to initiate over the coastal waters will gradually move inland
closer to midnight. Expect scattered showers brief MVFR CIGS vis
with passing shra. Current light winds increase again to near 10
kts out of the east late this morning and afternoon.

Update
Robust convection of this afternoon has for the most part
diminished and exited the region, and near-term models suggest
evening will be relatively quiet across south florida. Thereafter,
expected increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms along
the east coast. Have adjusted pops to reflect this thinking.

Temperatures are already rain cooled in the upper 70s to low
80s, and will fall very little overnight.

Prev discussion issued 414 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017
discussion...

short term (tonight through Friday night)
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms have impacted south
florida today and this activity is likely to continue into
tonight. Very heavy downpours does bring mainly urban flood
concern in the near term. Culprit for the abundant precipitation
is tropical disturbance, generally centered just south and west of
south florida, will remain nearly in place through at least Thursday
night. Plume of moisture (pwats 2.1-2.4 inches) will remain over
south florida through the period, thus numerous showers and
thunderstorms will persist. Locally heavy rainfall is possible,
and as the prolonged rainfall continues, more and more locations
will see saturated ground. See hydro section below for details on
flood potential. By Friday, a weak cold front will enter north
florida, and will draw up the tropical disturbance to the
northeast. Development of this system is not expected in the short
term, with NHC only calling for a 10 percent chance of tropical
cyclone formation through the end of the work-week.

Generally overcast conditions and widespread rainfall will curb
diurnal heating, but do expect the few peaks in clouds to allow
maxima to still rise well into the 80s, with some low 90s, each
afternoon. West palm beach set a daily record warm minimum
yesterday (Tuesday), only falling to 82f. The old record was 81
degrees from 2000. With most areas seeing rain cooled air over the
next few days, additional heat records are not anticipated.

Long term (Saturday through Monday)
front will stall over central florida into early next week, and
the tropical disturbance will only slowly move northeast into the
atlantic and out to sea (when chances for development increase
slightly). Across south florida, abundant tropical moisture and
deep southwesterly flow will provide ample conditions for numerous
showers and thunderstorms, with potential for heavy rainfall
continuing.

Marine...

tropical disturbance in the vicinity of south florida is not
expected to develop into a tropical depression or storm, but will
bring scattered to numerous thunderstorms to regional waters into
the weekend. Southerly wind of 10 to 15 knots is expected away
from these thunderstorms, with the potential for some higher
southwesterly wind Friday and Saturday. Speeds will closely be
monitored for the potential need for a small craft advisory.

Aviation...

some scattered showers have developed over the atlantic waters
during the overnight hours and moved inland, with tempos for -ra
in place for mia and tmb. Brief MVFR CIGS vis are possible with
the heavier showers. TS has not been an issue so far, but vcts
will be introduced after 15z at all terminals. Current light winds
increase again to near 10 knots out of the east late this morning
and afternoon.

Hydrology...

overall, pwats of 2 to 2.5 inches will dominate south florida into
early next week. A tropical disturbance over the region will bring
plenty of lift to induce numerous showers and thunderstorms during
this period. The system will remain nearly stationary until
Friday, when a cold front moves into central florida and stalls.

This front will lift the disturbance northeastward, only gradually
away from south florida over the weekend. Still, deep, moist
southwesterly flow will continue the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms over the region. Locally heavy rainfall is expected
throughout this period, with wpc suggesting widespread 2 to 5
inch amounts. However, the flood problems will be most likely
where localized much higher rainfall amounts occur. At this point,
models suggest the heaviest rain and highest flood potential will
not onset until later Thursday. Thus, no flood watch will be
issued this evening. One could be issued as early as early
Thursday morning.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 79 90 77 90 50 70 50 60
fort lauderdale 78 88 78 88 60 60 50 50
miami 77 89 77 88 60 60 50 50
naples 77 90 79 86 50 60 60 70

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 23 sk
marine... 67 mt
aviation... 67 mt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 11 mi51 min ESE 8.9 G 11 84°F 87°F1012.1 hPa (+0.7)
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 11 mi51 min ESE 15 G 16 83°F 85°F1013 hPa (+0.5)
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 34 mi51 min SE 13 G 17 84°F 1012.6 hPa (+0.5)74°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 42 mi51 min E 5.1

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL7 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair81°F77°F88%1012.3 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL10 mi53 minE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F77°F93%1012.5 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL14 mi58 minSE 410.00 miLight Rain82°F75°F79%1012.6 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL20 mi58 minSSE 310.00 miA Few Clouds81°F79°F94%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from TMB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NW4NE5CalmCalmN3CalmNE5NE5NE3E12E6W5CalmCalmE17
G23
E4SE5SE3S3E4CalmE4Calm
1 day agoS8N5N6N5NE6E3NE4E4SE6E8E9E9E8E9E12E13SE10E13
G17
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2 days agoE8E6E6E6E8E8E9E10E11
G20
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G19
E11E12E11E12E13E7NE4CalmW3NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Cutler, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Cutler
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:18 PM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.52.31.91.40.80.30-00.30.91.52.12.42.42.11.610.50.20.10.20.71.31.9

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:42 AM EDT     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:35 AM EDT     2.23 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:04 PM EDT     -1.76 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:57 PM EDT     2.13 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-1-1.5-1.8-1.9-1.4-0.21.222.22.21.70.5-0.7-1.3-1.6-1.8-1.6-0.70.71.82.12.11.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.