Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmetto Bay, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:21PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 1:10 PM EDT (17:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:08PMMoonset 1:18AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 1017 Am Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Rest of today..South southeast winds 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South southwest winds 5 knots becoming west after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday through Sunday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1017 Am Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis.. East to southeasterly flow will continue across the atlantic and gulf waters throughout the forecast period. Wave heights will generally be 3 feet or less. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will occur across the atlantic waters mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, before shifting to the gulf waters mainly during the afternoon hours. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around any shower or Thunderstorm.
Gulf stream hazards..None the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 06, 2018 at 1200 utc... 3 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 14 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 6 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 9 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmetto Bay, FL
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location: 25.62, -80.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 191552
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1152 am edt Wed sep 19 2018

Update
Morning sounding data and analyses of water vapor and precipitable
water data show that south florida currently sits under a pocket
of relatively drier air associated with mid level ridge extending
west to east across the area. To the north is an area of higher
moisture over central florida associated with a trough just to the
north, and to the south is deeper moisture over the straits of
florida along a weak and nearly stationary low-level trough.

Short-term model guidance suggests that the trough across
central north florida will nudge southward this afternoon,
potentially leading to a slight moisture increase across south
florida as the day progresses. Overall wind flow is light across
the area with weak southerly flow already overtaken by east coast
sea breeze late this morning, with the gulf sea breezes to follow
shortly after noon. Short-range high-resolution models indicate a
slightly more convectively-active east coast seabreeze this
afternoon with a slow n-ne storm motion. Current depiction of pops
for this afternoon generally follow this pattern of highest rain
chances from palm beach county south into interior broward and
miami-dade counties and will not make changes at this time. Last
few hourly runs of the hrrr model suggest a higher chance of
precip over parts of the mia fll area compared to forecast pops,
so will monitor these trends closely. Hi-res guidance conversely
shows little in the way of precip around and west of lake
okeechobee as well as over interior collier county where forecast
pops are in the 30-40% range this afternoon. Will not make any
changes in these areas despite this guidance, as general pattern
supports at least a few showers thunderstorms developing along the
advancing gulf sea breeze. Low pops along the gulf coast is
generally supported by model guidance and trends.

Weak mid-level lapse rates and lack of strong forcing suggests
that storms today will be primarily below advisory levels.

Temperatures and wind also look on track for this afternoon.

Prev discussion issued 746 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
aviation...

with more of a southeast flow today, both the gulf and atlantic
sea breezes should be able to form today. This should push most of
whatever convective activity forms, to the interior. This should
limit the impact at the TAF sites. Current hi-res models are
showing limited activity today as well, so have removed TS from
the tafs and left vcsh for now. Otherwise,VFR conditions should
prevail through the day.

Prev discussion... Issued 300 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
discussion...

today and tonight...

mid to upper ridging will remain prominent from the eastern gulf of
mexico into the western atlantic, as upstream troughing dips into
northern florida and offshore of the carolinas. At the surface, a
somewhat diffuse frontal zone will meander about the lower gulf
coast states as western atlantic ridging continues to dominate
our weather locally. Moisture channel imagery, streamline
analysis, and the GOES total precipitable water product all
indicate that drier air is filtering into southeast florida, while
deeper moisture pools to our north ahead of the aforementioned
frontal zone. The combination of warm temperatures aloft and
subsidence from the deep layer ridge suggests a general
suppression of shower and thunderstorm coverage for today, and
this is consistent with output from the convection allowing
mesoscale models, which show only scattered sea breeze driven
convection over mainly interior and west coast areas for this
afternoon. Expect showers and storms to end this evening over land
areas, while perhaps lingering a bit longer over the gulf waters.

High temperatures have been running a bit over the blended model
guidance, particularly across interior and western portions of the
area, and will go with a persistence forecast for temperatures,
with maximums in the lower to mid 90s for the west, and upper 80s
to lower 90s elsewhere.

Thursday and Friday...

ridging aloft will begin to break down on Thursday, as offshore
troughing evolves into a closed low over the bahamas Thursday night.

The low will slowly trek westward across south florida on Friday,
bringing an increase in moisture and upper level winds. This,
combined with cooling 500 mb temperatures to around -10 celsius,
suggests more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Friday, with a
few stronger storms possible. Temperatures should be near, to
perhaps slightly below, normal with more cloud cover and greater
thunderstorm coverage on Friday.

Saturday through Tuesday...

the upper low will be off to our west by Saturday afternoon, however
a few residual perturbations will pass through, and deep moisture
should remain in place through at least Sunday. Drier air will
filter in thereafter, with lesser shower and thunderstorm coverage
expected by early next week. Look for temperatures to remain near
seasonal normals.

Marine...

prevailing east to southeast winds will continue for the atlantic
and gulf waters, with wave heights averaging 3 feet or less. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will occur across the atlantic and gulf waters
mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, before
shifting primarily to the gulf waters during the afternoon. Winds
and waves could be locally higher in and around any shower or
thunderstorm.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 91 77 89 77 20 20 20 30
fort lauderdale 90 79 90 79 20 20 20 30
miami 90 78 90 78 20 20 30 30
naples 91 77 93 75 10 20 50 30

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 59 molleda


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 11 mi40 min ESE 5.1 G 8 85°F 89°F1015.1 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 11 mi70 min SE 8 G 8.9 84°F 87°F1016.1 hPa (+0.7)
MDKF1 23 mi130 min 84°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 26 mi130 min 87°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 28 mi70 min 91°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 29 mi130 min 87°F
THRF1 29 mi130 min 88°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 31 mi130 min 88°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 31 mi130 min 87°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 32 mi130 min 87°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 33 mi70 min 88°F
PEGF1 34 mi46 min ESE 6 G 9.9 86°F 1015.2 hPa
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 34 mi46 min SE 5.1 G 8 87°F 1015.4 hPa75°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 35 mi70 min 89°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi70 min 87°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 37 mi70 min 85°F
NRRF1 37 mi70 min 83°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 38 mi70 min 87°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 38 mi130 min 86°F
TBYF1 39 mi70 min 91°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 39 mi70 min 84°F
LRIF1 39 mi70 min 86°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 41 mi70 min 87°F
HREF1 42 mi70 min 87°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 42 mi70 min 88°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 42 mi70 min SW 7
WWEF1 43 mi130 min 85°F
CWAF1 43 mi130 min 86°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 44 mi70 min S 4.1 86°F
BKYF1 44 mi70 min 88°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 45 mi70 min 89°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 46 mi70 min 89°F
SREF1 46 mi70 min 89°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 47 mi70 min 88°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 49 mi70 min 88°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL7 mi17 minE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F77°F64%1014.8 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL10 mi14 minE 610.00 miFair89°F75°F63%1014.9 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL14 mi17 minESE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F77°F68%1015 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL20 mi17 minE 710.00 miFair91°F77°F64%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from TMB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE9E11E10SE10E9SE5SE5SE4SE4E5E3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5E9
1 day agoE13E12E10E13E13E12E8E8E6E4NE3E3E5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE4E7E9E11E10
2 days agoSE7E10SE9SE7SE6SE8E9E7E6E4E4CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5SE8E10SE9E10
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Cutler, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.