Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 4:26 AM   Moonset 5:37 PM

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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 400 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Today - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. Tonight - E se winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Tue - E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. Wed night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. Thu - S se winds around 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. Thu night - S se winds around 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. Fri - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 400 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis -
gentle to moderate easterly flow continues to prevail across the atlantic waters with southwesterly flow developing over gulf waters each afternoon. A few isolated showers and Thunderstorms may be possible at times, particularly over the gulf waters. Easterly winds could increase to near hazardous levels at times over the atlantic waters this weekend as high pressure builds over the western atlantic.
gulf stream hazards: none.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 04, 2024 at 12 utc - .
1 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 13 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 061130 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 730 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

High pressure continues to dominate the benign and warm weather pattern across South Florida. This will keep generally easterly to southeasterly flow at the surface for today and Tuesday. Upper levels remain too dry for significant convection, and Monday and Tuesday are likely to be mainly sunny and dry outside of a few isolated showers that may impact interior and southwest portions of the area. A few showers will be possible across eastern areas during the morning and as the sea breeze pushes inland, the focus of any convection will shift over the southwest portions of the area during the evening hours. Rain chances will remain very low overall without much synoptic forcing and moisture, although can't totally rule out a few sprinkles for some isolated areas.

Forecasted afternoon highs will top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees across southwestern Florida with highs in the low to mid 80s across the eastern half of the area thanks to the persistent onshore flow. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the east coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will gradually weaken and shift southeast by the mid-week period, resulting in initially easterly low level flow veering more southeasterly while decreasing in magnitude. At the mid-levels, ridging over the GOM will build northeastward with the ridge axis largely positioned overhead by Wed/Thursday. Friday into Saturday the aforementioned ridge will flatten in response to a northern branch shortwave shifting into the eastern US, while surface low pressure and its associated cold front will also move towards the area.

In terms of rain chances, Wednesday-Friday will likely be completely dry thanks to a ridge building nearly overhead. The next notable rain chances come ahead of the aforementioned cold front next weekend on Saturday depending on the progression of the parent low. Given that the mid-lvl wave is passing well to our north, would expect the boundary to be frontolytic by the time it reaches SFL, largely maintaining PoPs only in the 15-30% for Saturday.

As low level flow begins to attain a more southerly and southwesterly component through the end of the week, temperatures will warm over the area. Thursday-Saturday will likely be the warmest stretch of the year thus far with widespread highs in the 90s, with mid 90s possible (especially over the Interior). Although there should be some some mixing down of drier air aloft, peak heat indices could also reach triple digits for the first time in 2024 for portions of the area.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds will increase out of the SE around 15z and will be gusty at times across the east coast terminals this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will be possible across the interior this afternoon, however, most activity should remain away from the terminals. The exception will be at KAPF, where some isolated shower activity may develop nearby this afternoon. At KAPF, winds will also become SW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly winds with southeasterly easterly surges at time, especially across the Atlantic waters over the next several days. Isolated rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring locally higher seas and gusty winds in and around shower/thunderstorm activity although rain chances remain quite low overall. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters. During easterly wind surges, conditions could reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions.

BEACHES
Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Breezy easterly flow continues the high risk of rip currents across all Southeast Florida beaches at least through the beginning half of the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 85 75 86 75 / 20 10 30 0 West Kendall 85 73 87 72 / 20 10 30 10 Opa-Locka 85 75 87 74 / 20 10 30 0 Homestead 84 74 85 74 / 20 10 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 75 85 75 / 20 10 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 84 74 86 74 / 20 10 30 0 Pembroke Pines 85 74 86 75 / 20 10 30 0 West Palm Beach 85 72 86 72 / 10 10 20 0 Boca Raton 84 74 85 73 / 20 10 30 10 Naples 87 72 87 74 / 20 20 20 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Key Biscayne Yacht Club
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Mon -- 02:52 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:27 AM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:10 PM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Key Biscayne Yacht Club, Biscayne Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Miami Harbor Entrance
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Mon -- 12:25 AM EDT     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     2.08 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:33 PM EDT     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:41 PM EDT     2.59 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current, knots

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