Saturday, December15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Key Biscayne, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:33PM Saturday December 15, 2018 12:34 AM EST (05:34 UTC) Moonrise 12:49PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 1020 Pm Est Fri Dec 14 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots along the coast to south southeast 15 to 20 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sunday night and Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters smooth.
Tuesday night and Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1020 Pm Est Fri Dec 14 2018
Synopsis..Southerly flow will become southwesterly towards daybreak as a cold front moves into the region, bringing cautionary conditions into Saturday. A band of showers and storms will continue to move into the gulf waters overnight, reaching the atlantic waters early Saturday morning. Showers and storms will be possible through the day Saturday, diminishing late day as the front exits the region. Improving conditions are expected on Sunday as winds winds become northwest behind the front.
Gulf stream hazards..South-southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south-southwest towards daybreak. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 13, 2018 at 1200 utc... 3 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 7 nautical miles east of port everglades. 5 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key Biscayne village, FL
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location: 25.7, -80.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 150024
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
724 pm est Fri dec 14 2018

Aviation
Main concern through TAF cycle will be approaching frontal boundary.

Current timing has it reaching kapf 07z-08z and east coast 10z-
12z as it breaks apart. All locations may see additional -shra
ahead of this line. Tsra threat looks minimal at this time, so
have kept vcsh. Slow movement will keep -shra in vcnty through taf
cycle. Sse winds 8-12kts overnight, becoming ssw with pre-frontal
boundary, gusty SW after 16z tomorrow.

Update
A few anticipated changes with this evenings update. Mainly to
back off pops this evening. The front is slow moving and no
significant showers are even close to south florida. The hrrr
continues to show most of the activity holding off until 03-05z,
or between 10pm and midnight est. So, dropped pops across the
area, and even removed mention this evening for the east coast
until after 03z, and even then it is only a slight chance. Kept
chance pops for the east coast after 06z, although it may be
closer to dawn before showers get near the atlantic coastal areas.

The gulf coast has better chances earlier, as the front is
approaching from the west. There is still the possibility of some
general thunderstorms for the area through tomorrow evening as
well.

Prev discussion issued 352 pm est Fri dec 14 2018
discussion...

big stories for the week are the cold fronts tonight and another
at the end of the week. However, they do not look to bring as cold
an air mass as the last front.

The current setup starts with a 500mb and surface low are over
louisiana, with a cold front nearing the western edge of the
florida panhandle, stretching southward well into the gulf. Models
are indicating the low will be fairly slow moving, moving over
alabama by around 03z, or 10pm est, tonight, and the cold front
still not through the tallahassee area. There also appears to be
a pre frontal surface trough that is well ahead of the main front.

This trough is what may initiate some stronger showers and storms
over central florida. There is also a 250mb jet that may be
helping to amplify convection in central florida. However, these
dynamics should stay well north of south florida, keeping us
fairly quiet for this evening and mainly showers and some general
thunderstorms over night. Looking at the hrrr, convection may not
even make it into the western lake region until are dawn. There
may also be a few showers over the atlantic waters, and possibly
the atlantic coast. Most likely the forecast is too aggressive
with pops this evening, even though it is lower than the model
guidance. Would not be surprised if the overnight hours are
mostly dry. So confidence, even in the short term is pretty low.

That said, only brought low end chance pops over the the eastern
south florida area late this evening. Would not be surprised if
evening updates backed off on these numbers. The front itself will
creep across the area through the day tomorrow, and should be
exiting the atlantic coast sometime in the late afternoon hours.

This would keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast for the day tomorrow.

Behind the front, high pressure is forecast to build in for
tomorrow night into Sunday. The cooler air mass will take its
time moving into the area. Highs on Sunday are forecast to be
somewhat cooler, in the 70s across the area. Lows Sunday look to
be around 10 degrees f cooler than Saturday morning. By Monday,
the cooler air advects in and lows across the region will range
from the upper 40s in the western lake region, to the upper 50s
for the gulf coast, to around 60 along the atlantic coast. The
western miami to palm beach metro areas are forecast in the upper
50s. The dry air will take a little longer to move in, not
significantly dropping until Monday, when they are forecast to be
in the 50s.

The coolest day looks to be Monday, then a gradual warming trend
for the middle of the week, under high pressure. At least until
late Wednesday night, into Thursday morning.

Overnight Wednesday, a 500mb trough moves off the texas coast.

Ahead of it, the models are indicating some cyclogenesis over the
the western gulf. Models are hinting it may interact with the
frontal boundary, from tomorrows cold front, which looks to stall
over cuba, and stretch well back towards southern texas. The
developing system should lift this front to the north, as a warm
front on Wednesday night spreading showers well out ahead of it.

As this system develops over the gulf, there is a second system
over the hudson bay in canada. This system is associated with a
much strong upper level low that will absorb the southern system.

As it does, the system becomes an extended cold front stretching
from new england down to cuba. This system looks to likely bring
just another round of mainly showers to the area at this time,
although some thunderstorms may need to be added in as it gets
closer in time. This front is currently progged to move more
quickly and exit south florida by next Saturday morning.

Marine...

a cold front is forecast to slowly move through the area from
tonight through tomorrow night. This will shift the wind to the
northeast by Sunday morning. However, the wind is not forecast to
be above any advisory criteria, or even enough to build seas above
5 feet in the offshore gulf waters of south florida. For the
atlantic seas are only forecast to build to around 3 feet in the
gulf stream on Sunday. So, while small craft should exercise
caution, no advisory will be issued at this time for tonight or
tomorrow, and the current advisory will be cancelled with this
update.

Behind this front, high pressure is forecast to build over the
area, with cooler temperatures for the beginning to the middle of
the week.

Also, the high risk of rip currents will be allowed to expire this
evening, as the wind is forecast to become more southerly
overnight, and persist out of the south most of tomorrow. This
would likely induce more of a longshore current, which would help
to lessen the risk of rip currents.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 73 81 61 74 40 60 40 10
fort lauderdale 73 82 65 76 50 50 50 10
miami 74 81 66 75 50 40 40 10
naples 72 76 64 75 70 50 10 0

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 7 pm est this evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 13
aviation... 88 alm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 2 mi40 min SSE 11 G 13 77°F 73°F1016.8 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 8 mi34 min SSE 22 G 24 78°F 76°F1017.4 hPa (+0.0)
PEGF1 27 mi46 min SSE 15 G 18 78°F 1016.6 hPa
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 27 mi34 min S 9.9 G 15 78°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.4)73°F
MDKF1 31 mi154 min 74°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 34 mi154 min 76°F
THRF1 36 mi154 min 72°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 36 mi94 min 73°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 36 mi154 min 73°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 39 mi154 min 74°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 39 mi154 min 73°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 40 mi154 min 71°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 42 mi94 min 74°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 44 mi94 min 73°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 45 mi94 min 69°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 46 mi94 min 72°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 46 mi94 min 71°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 47 mi94 min 73°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 47 mi154 min 73°F
NRRF1 47 mi94 min 72°F
TBYF1 48 mi94 min 75°F
LRIF1 48 mi94 min 74°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL10 mi41 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F73°F94%1017.2 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL14 mi41 minSSE 610.00 miA Few Clouds76°F72°F88%1016.8 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL16 mi41 minSSE 910.00 miA Few Clouds76°F73°F91%1017.2 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL19 mi98 minSSE 410.00 miFair75°F72°F92%1017.2 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL21 mi41 minSSE 710.00 miFair76°F71°F85%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE9SE8E7SE6SE5SE3NE4CalmE8E12E10E10E11SE14SE13
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2 days agoNW5NW6N4NW6N6N54N6N7N5N6E10NE9NE9NE8NE12E10E9E9E6E7E10E8E7

Tide / Current Tables for Key Biscayne Yacht Club, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Key Biscayne Yacht Club
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:35 AM EST     1.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     First Quarter
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:10 AM EST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:58 PM EST     1.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:48 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.61.81.81.71.51.20.90.70.60.60.91.21.61.81.91.91.61.310.70.50.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 03:01 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:55 AM EST     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     First Quarter
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:15 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:29 AM EST     1.54 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:25 PM EST     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:47 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.20.80-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.20.71.51.51.310.4-0.5-1-1-0.9-0.9-0.60.21.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.