Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Key Biscayne, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:52PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 6:33 AM EDT (10:33 UTC) Moonrise 1:47PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 320 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 320 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
Synopsis..With high pressure dominating south florida waters, moderate east wind will prevail into the weekend, with only isolated to scattered showers and a few Thunderstorms. At times, speeds may increase in pressure surges, particularly overnights in the atlantic, and small craft operators may need to exercise caution. The surge looks particularly robust Thursday night, and a small craft advisory may be warranted at that time.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of oct 16, 2018 at 1200 utc... 2 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 7 nautical miles east of port everglades. 6 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 8 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key Biscayne village, FL
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location: 25.7, -80.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 170715
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
315 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Discussion
Short term (today through Friday)
relatively benign weather pattern persists across south florida
this week. Few showers have pushed inland from the atlantic into
mainly miami-dade county early this morning, and mesoscale
guidance suggests a few more will impact the east coast through
the morning before transitioning to western northwestern areas in
the afternoon. Coverage will be relatively sparse, as pwats are
not exceptionally high and easterly flow is strong enough to
negate significant sea-breeze boundary development.

Synoptically, deep layer ridge that has dominated since last
weekend will prevail through the short term, bringing fairly dry
conditions with only isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms, focused east overnights and mornings, and west
during the afternoons. Temperatures will be above normal for
october, with maxima in the upper 80s to low 90s and minima in the
70s to around 80f. Some records will be threatened; see climate
section below.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
at least subtle changes continue to be hinted at by global
guidance for the weekend and early next week. Upper-ridge should
weaken and drift southeastward, allowing some influence in south
florida from mid-latitude longwave trough that will progress
through the eastern CONUS this weekend. A weakening cold front is
forecast to approach central florida Friday night into Saturday,
then be reinforced by another weak front that appears poised to
reach south florida later Sunday into Monday. Although both gfs
and ECMWF show the front having little dynamical support or
significant moisture pooling for more than scattered convection,
they differ in the magnitude of any cooler (i.E. Drier) air behind
the front. ECMWF suggests a slightly more pronounced fropa, with
early next week yielding dewpoint values in the 60s and
temperatures down toward normal. GFS has front stalling over far
southern florida will little in the way of drier air and only
lower temperatures to result from curbed diurnal heating from
clouds scattered showers.

Marine
With high pressure dominating south florida waters, moderate east
wind will prevail into the weekend, with only isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. At times, speeds may
increase in pressure surges, particularly overnights in the
atlantic, and small craft operators may need to exercise caution.

The surge looks particularly robust Thursday night, and a small
craft advisory may be warranted at that time.

Aviation
With high pressure in place easterly flow will continue to
persist throughout the period. Showers over the atlantic continue
to quickly move eastward over the east coast sites this
morning. Showers will shift towards interior and west towards apf
this afternoon. Overnight, partly cloudy skies with winds around
10 knots.

Beach forecast
East wind of 15 to 20 mph has persisted for several days and will
continue for several more. This has increasingly favored rip
current generation along the east coast and there is now a high
risk of rip currents on atlantic beaches today. A moderate to high
risk will likely continue on the east coast into the weekend.

Fire weather
Fairly strong easterly wind will lead to excellent dispersion over
interior south florida for at least the next couple of days, with
indices exceeding 75 today over interior collier county. Values
above 75 are likely over portions of the interior again on
Thursday.

Climate
Record high minima were set at all 3 east coast climate sites on
Tuesday, october 16th.

- at miami, the low temperature of 80 degrees broke 1933's daily
record warm low temperature of 79 degrees.

- at fort lauderdale, the low temperature of 80 degrees broke
1925's daily record warm low temperature of 79 degrees.

- at west palm beach, the low temperature of 80 degrees tied the
daily record warm low temperature, last set in 2016.

Persistent onshore flow from the warm atlantic threatens
additional warm records over the next several days. For today,
Wednesday, october 17th, the record warm minima are as follows:
city record date
miami 79 2016
fort lauderdale 79 1998
west palm beach 80 2016
naples 75 2007

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 89 77 88 77 20 20 20 30
fort lauderdale 88 80 88 80 20 30 30 30
miami 89 78 88 78 20 20 20 30
naples 90 74 90 73 20 10 20 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for flz168-172-173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 23 sbk
marine... 23 sbk
aviation... 33 kelly
beach forecast... 23 sbk
fire weather... 23 sbk
climate... 23 sbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 2 mi33 min ENE 11 G 15 81°F 85°F1017.8 hPa (-0.0)
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 8 mi33 min ENE 16 G 17 81°F 82°F1018.6 hPa (-0.0)
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 27 mi39 min E 7 G 12 82°F 1018.1 hPa74°F
PEGF1 27 mi33 min E 13 G 16 83°F 1018 hPa (-0.0)
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 49 mi33 min ESE 16 G 19 82°F 83°F1017.7 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL10 mi40 minE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F77°F94%1018.1 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL14 mi40 minE 810.00 miA Few Clouds78°F75°F90%1017.9 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL16 mi40 minESE 910.00 miFair81°F75°F82%1018.3 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL19 mi37 minENE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F76°F92%1017.9 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL21 mi40 minE 810.00 miFair81°F75°F85%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E10E12E13E13E18
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1 day agoE7E7E11E12E15E14
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE5SE3E3SE5E7SE8E10SE9E9E12E9E8E9E12E11E10E8E8E6E6E7

Tide / Current Tables for Key Biscayne Yacht Club, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Key Biscayne Yacht Club
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:03 AM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:47 AM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:49 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:33 PM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.41.822.121.81.61.310.90.811.21.61.92.22.22.11.91.71.41.11

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:22 AM EDT     1.27 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:09 AM EDT     -0.77 knots Min Ebb
Wed -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:51 AM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:53 PM EDT     1.38 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:50 PM EDT     1.35 knots Min Flood
Wed -- 02:24 PM EDT     1.36 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.20.90.2-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.9-0.50.41.21.41.41.30.8-0-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.