Tuesday, March26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Key Biscayne, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:35PM Tuesday March 26, 2019 5:56 AM EDT (09:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:34AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- 438 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning...
Today..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming north northwest 15 to 25 knots with occasional gusts to around 35 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet in the afternoon. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots with occasional gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas to 13 feet building to 10 to 12 feet with occasional seas to 15 feet after midnight. Period 8 seconds. North northeast swell 4 feet increasing to north 3 to 6 feet after midnight. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers.
Thursday..North northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with occasional gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 10 to 12 feet with occasional seas to 15 feet. North swell 3 to 8 feet. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 9 to 11 feet with occasional seas to 14 feet subsiding to 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet after midnight. North swell 3 to 7 feet becoming 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. North swell 3 to 4 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas.
Friday night..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 438 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2019
Synopsis..A low pressure area that is expected to develop just to the east of florida later tonight will bring several days of very hazardous boating conditions across the local waters. North northeasterly gales and hazardous seas are expected to overspread the atlantic waters on Wednesday, with hazardous conditions developing over the gulf waters into Wednesday night. Winds and seas will gradually improve on Friday as the low moves east away from the area.
Gulf stream hazards..North northeast gales developing by Wednesday morning. Seas building to 10 to 15 feet by Thursday morning. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of mar 26, 2019 at 1200 utc... 7 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 7 nautical miles east of port everglades. 8 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 11 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key Biscayne, FL
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location: 25.7, -80.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 260827
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
427 am edt Tue mar 26 2019

Discussion
Today: upper level trough is pushing through the eastern us this
morning, driving a surface low that is lifting northeast away from
the coast of the carolinas. Two frontal boundary are trailing
behind this low: the first is little more than a weak surface trough
moving south of lake okeechobee, and the second a stronger one
moving through north florida.

The weaker trough is expected to push through south florida
around daybreak, allowing light northwesterly flow to overspread
the region. Other than the wind shift, little change is expected
with daytime highs comparable to Monday in the low to mid 80s.

Flow will be light enough for the east coast seabreeze to develop,
with scattered showers as it struggles to move inland. A few
storms can't be ruled out, though the instability does not look as
high as yesterday given we're currently in between two upper
level features.

Tonight through Friday: strong vort MAX is expected to drop into the
upper level east trough late this evening, digging the larger trough
across the peninsula Wednesday morning, with a strong upper level
low expected to develop just to our east into Wednesday afternoon.

This feature will be driven by a 90-100kt upper jet, which will also
be digging across the state in the same timeframe.

This will drive surface cyclogenesis just to our east across the nw
bahamas along the second front as it moves into central and south
florida into Wednesday morning. The surface low is expected to
deepen as drifts east, setting up a strong pressure gradient across
the state into georgia and the carolinas Wednesday afternoon through
Friday. The net result will be several days of windy, showery, and
slightly cooler weather across the area.

Wind speeds look strongest on Thursday, when north-northeast flow
below 700mb will be a solid 25-35kts across the region, highest
across the local atlantic where the gradient is the tightest. While
it will be a windy day on Thursday, at the moment the forecast stays
below wind advisory criteria, though the east coast will have to be
re-evaluated closer in.

The deeper moisture pooled along the second front looks to get
wrapped up in the low before it quite reaches south florida, meaning
our better moisture will arrive in the form of wrap-around late
tonight into Wednesday afternoon. Overall chances will generally be
30-50%, generally limited the east coast. Chances will diminish to
isolated Thursday and Friday. Rainfall amounts don't look high, but
given the strong winds, will have to watch if any convergence bands
can set up if flow veers a little more northeasterly, or the front
drifts a little further south. Storm threat looks minimal, and
confined to the local atlantic waters.

Winds diminish as we head into Friday as the low moves further away
and the gradient gradually relaxes. However, still expect a breezy
day across the area.

Next weekend into early next week: pressure gradient will decrease
as storm system continues to move well east into the atlantic and
the high pressure center drifts into the state. With a shortwave
ridge aloft also transiting the region this weekend, expect to see
decreasing moisture and winds across the area. A few showers can't
be ruled out, but overall expect partly cloudy skies and seasonably
warm temps in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will range from the
low 60s in the interior to upper 60s along the atlantic coast.

Both the GFS and ECMWF agree on keeping a progressive pattern in
place as we head into next week, but disagree on the timing of the
next system. A model consensus has rain and potentially storm
chances returning early next week as the next front approaches.

Marine The main story remains the development of hazardous
boating conditions across all the local waters starting on Wednesday
and continuing into Friday.

The development of a surface low just to our east will set up a
strong north-northeast pressure gradient across the area, that will
extend into the nearby western atlantic. The result will be winds
increasing to 20-25 knots by Wednesday afternoon, with gusts
to gale force into Thursday morning across the atlantic. Winds
will be a little slower to pick up over the gulf waters, more
Wednesday night, and gales do not look as likely.

The combination of local wind wave and fresh swell moving from
further north will drive seas up to 11-15ft in the gulf stream by
Thursday morning, with 6-7ft in the offshore gulf waters.

A small craft advisory is currently in effect for the local
atlantic, with a gale warning now in effect for the offshore
atlantic waters. Advisories will likely be needed for portions of
the gulf waters and lake okeechobee as well, though the current
timing, Wednesday night, places it a little far out to issue an
advisory at this time.

While winds will diminish late on Friday, hazardous seas are likely
to linger for at least portions of the atlantic in Saturday morning.

Aviation Vfr conditions are expected through the period. Winds
will become light NW this morning. The east coast sea breeze should
push through the east coast terminals, causing winds to become E for
awhile this afternoon. There could be a few showers along the east
coast this afternoon and evening, but chances are too low to include
for now.

Beach forecast Several days of rough surf are expected to end the
week as an area of low pressure is expected to develop just to the
east of the state midweek and slowly drift east. The strong north-
northeast winds around the low will lead to a high risk of rip
currents along the atlantic beaches.

Surf heights may peak around8-10 feet along the palm beaches
Thursday and Friday as the longer period fresh swell reaches the
area, with surf heights 2-4ft for broward and miami-dade counties.

In addition to the likely high and rough surf, there may be beach
erosion and coastal flood impacts, especially at high tide. A
high surf advisory or coastal flood statement may be required for
portions of the atlantic coast during the timeframe if the
forecast holds.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 82 62 76 64 30 30 40 40
fort lauderdale 83 64 77 64 40 30 30 30
miami 84 63 79 64 40 20 20 20
naples 78 62 76 59 10 10 10 0

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Gale warning from 2 pm Wednesday to 10 am edt Thursday for
amz671.

Gale warning from 10 am Wednesday to 10 am edt Thursday for
amz670.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Wednesday to 10 am edt Thursday
for amz630-651.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Wednesday to 10 am edt Thursday
for amz650.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 88 alm
marine... 88 alm
aviation... 32 mm
beach forecast... 88 alm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 2 mi45 min 72°F 76°F1015.1 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 8 mi57 min WNW 12 G 13 73°F 77°F1016.3 hPa (-1.2)
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 27 mi177 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 74°F 1016.2 hPa (-1.3)68°F
PEGF1 27 mi45 min 71°F 1015.8 hPa
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 34 mi117 min 80°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 36 mi117 min 76°F
THRF1 36 mi117 min 75°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 36 mi57 min 78°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 39 mi117 min 78°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 39 mi117 min 77°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 40 mi117 min 76°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 42 mi57 min 81°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 44 mi57 min 77°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 45 mi57 min 75°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 46 mi57 min 76°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 46 mi57 min 76°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 47 mi117 min 78°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 47 mi57 min 76°F
NRRF1 47 mi57 min 76°F
TBYF1 48 mi57 min 79°F
LRIF1 48 mi57 min 77°F
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 49 mi57 min N 8 G 8.9 74°F 78°F1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL10 mi64 minW 410.00 miA Few Clouds70°F64°F82%1016 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL14 mi64 minW 310.00 miFair65°F64°F97%1015.9 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL16 mi64 minW 510.00 miFair69°F64°F84%1016.1 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL19 mi61 minWNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds68°F63°F84%1015.9 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL21 mi64 minW 410.00 miFair68°F66°F93%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN3E6SE9E10SE12E13E7E8E9SE8SE10SE5SE5SE4SE3SE3S3SW5CalmW4W4
1 day agoE7SE4E8E8E13E17E16E15
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SE12E11SE9E13E12E11E9E8E8E8E7E5E5Calm
2 days agoNW5N44NE5NE4N4NE4SE8E7E5
G16
E9E8E9E7E8E7E6E9E7SE6E6E5CalmE7

Tide / Current Tables for Key Biscayne Yacht Club, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Key Biscayne Yacht Club
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:12 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:49 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:22 PM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:08 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.92.121.71.30.90.50.20.20.30.71.21.61.91.81.61.30.80.40.1-00.10.4

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:00 AM EDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:33 AM EDT     1.72 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.70.6-0.4-1-1.3-1.3-1.2-0.70.41.31.71.71.50.7-0.3-1.1-1.3-1.4-1.3-0.9-0.11.11.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.