Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 2:54 PM   Moonset 2:35 AM

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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 1000 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Mon night - W nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N nw after midnight. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Tue and Tue night - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis -
a gentle to moderate southwesterly to southerly wind flow will prevail across the local waters tonight and over the weekend as low pressure systems track across the southeast us. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible over the local waters each day through the weekend.
gulf stream hazards: none.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 16, 2024 at 12 utc - .
1 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 180632 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 232 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

A hot and humid day is on tap across much of South Florida as a mid-level ridge continues to slide across the area, being pushed along by a shortwave moving along the northern Gulf states. The ridge will continue to keep conditions mostly dry, however, scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible for coastal locations, primarily on the Atlantic side as the sea breeze boundary pushes inland in the afternoon and early evening hours. Steep low-level lapse rates and enhanced shear along the sea breeze could support stronger storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail.

With south-southwest flow and warming airmass from the overhead ridge, high temperatures today will peak in the mid to upper 90s across much of South Florida, with heat index values up to 110 possible.
Heat Advisories have been issued for all counties due to the hazardous conditions. Anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside, and if you are required to be outside, take cooling breaks and stay hydrated.

On Sunday, the aforementioned shortwave and associated frontal boundary will slowly spread over the Florida Peninsula, kicking the ridge off over the Atlantic. This will lead to greater instability and better chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms could again be strong, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, small hail, and heavy rain. Even with the increased cloud cover and a slightly cooler airmass compared to Saturday, heat will yet again be a concern as south-southwest flow persists over South Florida for much of the day ahead of the frontal boundary. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-90s, with heat index values ranging from 103-108. Heat advisories may be needed yet again for certain areas.


LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Increased rain chances and a bit of relief from the heat to start the long-term period as a mid-level shortwave trough settles over Florida and the Southeast US, and a surface front finally pushes across South Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday and Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours, with locally heavy rain possibly leading to a few instances of minor urban flooding across the East Coast metro. A few storms may also be on the strong to severe side, with damaging wind gusts from localized downbursts being the main threat.

From mid to late week, a mid-level ridge will slowly build in from over the Gulf, while the mid-level trough lingers just east of the Florida Peninsula. While chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease, there will still be daily chances during the afternoon and early evening hours, primarily driven by diurnal sea-breeze convection.

Temperatures will gradually trend cooler each day from early to midweek, and rebound towards the end of the week as the ridging builds back in. Monday's highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with mid to upper 80s on Wednesday, and back into the low 90s again by Friday. Overnight lows will remain warm, in the mid to upper 70s each day. While these temperatures are above normal, they will not lead to the heat concerns that we have seen for much of the past week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours.
Restrictions due to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon over the east coast terminals, primarily between 18 and 00Z. Light and variable winds this morning will trend SErly on the east coast, sustained 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts while winds will become SWrly at KAPF this afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Mainly benign conditions over the weekend with light to moderate southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend, mainly over the Atlantic waters, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds.

BEACHES
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Low rip current risks today along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts with light flow. Rip current risks will increase along the Gulf coast on Sunday and into next week as onshore winds increase a bit.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 93 80 93 77 / 30 20 60 40 West Kendall 96 78 95 74 / 20 20 50 40 Opa-Locka 95 79 94 76 / 40 30 60 40 Homestead 94 79 94 77 / 20 10 40 50 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 91 76 / 40 30 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 93 79 92 75 / 40 30 70 50 Pembroke Pines 97 80 95 77 / 40 30 60 40 West Palm Beach 94 77 92 73 / 50 30 70 50 Boca Raton 94 79 92 74 / 40 30 70 50 Naples 92 79 91 77 / 0 20 40 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Dinner Key Marina
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Sat -- 01:08 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:39 AM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:32 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:16 PM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dinner Key Marina, Florida, Tide feet

Miami Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 12:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:11 AM EDT     1.35 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:44 AM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:40 PM EDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:18 PM EDT     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current, knots

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