Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 8:27 AM   Moonset 10:59 PM

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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 1000 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of tonight - W nw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. Sun - N ne winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. Mon - E se winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Mon night and Tue - S se winds 15 to 20 kt. Bay waters choppy. Tue night - S se winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. Wed - S sw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers through the day. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - S se winds around 10 kt. Bay waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis -
moderate to fresh winds gradually shifting westerly as a cold front moves across the area. The front is associated with a low pressure system moving across the southeastern united states. Chances for showers and Thunderstorms remain tonight ahead and along the front.
gulf stream hazards: gusty surges of wind overnight could be hazardous to small craft.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 11, 2024 at 12 utc - .
1 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 112326 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 726 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 657 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

It was another scorcher of a day with temperatures in the middle to upper 90s today. New record highs were set West Palm Beach (96 degrees) and Fort Lauderdale (97 degrees). Tomorrow, as winds shift to a more northeasterly direction behind the weak front, cooler (relative to today) temperatures are expected for eastern areas. Highs will be in the upper 80s for eastern metro areas and lower 90s for western metro areas. No significant changes with this forecast update.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Models show a trough/low complex migrating east over the E CONUS, and sending an associated decaying cold front across the Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, 850-700 mb layer analyses still depict a rather dry layer of air persisting over the area. Even with the enhanced moisture accompanying the front, it may not be enough for significant deep convection to develop. Therefore, shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to remain limited, with better chances north of I-75. Latest model solutions show fair agreement in stalling the boundary just south of the area on Sunday.

Winds shift more westerly ahead of the front which keeps the ongoing warm trend. Expect widespread low-mid 90s this afternoon, with sea breezes maybe keeping immediate coastal areas a tad cooler. For Sunday, increasing cloud cover and northerly cooler flow should help in knocking down afternoon highs a few degrees.
Widespread triple digit heat index values are still expected today with mid to upper 90s on Sunday except for Miami- Dade County where the triple digit heat index values will return for another day.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Mid-lvl ridging will rebuild northward into SFL Monday/Tuesday, then briefly flatten mid-week as a shortwave passes to our north, and then finally build northward again in the late week period. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will support generally weak southerly flow over the area Monday/Tuesday (with the weekend cold front lifting north as a warm front in that timeframe). The low-lvl flow then veers more southwesterly mid- week as an area of low pressure moves into the SE US. The system's cold front looks to stall well north of the area, maintaining the warm prefrontal regime through the end of the week.

The main story in terms of sensible weather will be a return to near-record temperatures by the mid-week period (Wed/Thu) with widespread highs in the mid 90s (apart from the immediate coast)
with some upper 90s possible over the Interior. Peak heat indices will likely be even a touch higher than observed in the previous week's stretch of heat, with values at or even over 105 degrees possible Wed/Thu. Given we are still 5 days out, there still remains uncertainty on the degree of mixing (and thus dewpoint values), but even a heat advisory couldn't be ruled out for portions of the east coast in the mid-week period. It will certainly feel a lot more like July/August than mid May.

Given mid-lvl dry air and general synoptic subsidence, rain chances will only be in the 15-30% range through Tuesday with any activity primarily limited to the sea breezes over the Interior.
There may be some increase in storm chances over northern areas Wed/Thu as the front stalls to our north and associated MCSs/convectively enhanced shortwaves track near the area, although the building ridge may then usher a return to drier conditions late week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds will be shifting from a more northwesterly direction to northeasterly through the period. A few showers may impact sites tomorrow afternoon, although the majority of this activity should remain inland.

MARINE
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Winds will shift from WSW this afternoon to northerly overnight and into Sunday morning as a decaying cold front moves across the waters. There's a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the front. There might be enough lingering moisture for additional showers to develop on Sunday, mainly over the Atlantic waters.

BEACHES
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The risk for rip currents will increase early next week as winds gradually shift back to the ENE along the Atlantic beaches.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A relatively dry air mass will remain in place over the next few days, with minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the lack of recent wetting rainfall could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions even with winds forecasted to remain below critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 75 90 77 89 / 0 20 0 20 West Kendall 72 92 74 91 / 0 20 0 10 Opa-Locka 74 91 76 91 / 0 20 0 20 Homestead 74 89 77 89 / 0 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 76 87 77 87 / 10 20 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 75 87 77 88 / 10 20 10 20 Pembroke Pines 76 91 77 91 / 0 20 0 20 West Palm Beach 73 86 74 88 / 30 20 0 30 Boca Raton 74 88 77 89 / 20 20 10 30 Naples 73 90 74 92 / 0 10 0 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Dinner Key Marina
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Sat -- 12:30 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:13 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:34 PM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:26 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dinner Key Marina, Florida, Tide feet

Miami Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 12:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:19 AM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:47 AM EDT     1.74 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:10 PM EDT     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:35 PM EDT     2.05 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current, knots

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