Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Miami Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 5:33PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 11:52 PM EST (04:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:24PMMoonset 11:34PM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 901 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Thursday..South southeast winds 5 knots becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Along the coast, seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. In the gulf stream, seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet after midnight. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots along the coast to north 15 to 20 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet in the gulf stream. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Friday night and Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet along the coast and 3 to 5 feet with occasional to 6 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..East northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday night and Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 901 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis..A cold front will be moving across the south florida waters on Thursday with high pressure ridge building north of the region through the weekend. Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate for small boaters with the passage of the front and just behind it through Friday before they improve once again going into the weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas will be building to 7 feet late Thursday and Thursday night behind the passage of the cold front and remain elevated through Friday. Conditions are expected to improve into the weekend. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of nov 10, 2018 at 1200 utc... 6 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 11 nautical miles east of port everglades. 8 nautical miles east of lake worth. 10 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Miami Beach, FL
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location: 25.79, -80.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 150159
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
859 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Update
Latest radar and satellite trends indicate diurnal activity
winding down. Activity at this time less than previously indicated
by the consensus of the short term guidance. This is consistent
with fairly benign thermodynamic profile shown in 00z sndg. This
should mark the transition overnight into tomorrow of activity
more directly associated with approaching front. Updated digital
forecasts to better reflect current trends and the transition into
the overnight hours and tomorrow. Other than that no changes to
the previous forecast reasoning stated below.

Prev discussion issued 658 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
aviation...

showers affected apf earlier this evening, but radar data shows
the bulk of that activity has moved well north of the terminal.

Vfr should continue through most of the evening at all terminals,
although a passing shower bringing brief MVFR CIGS can not be
discarded. Around 06-07z a passing frontal boundary will begin
bringing periods of MVFR or even brief ifr CIGS vis under heavy
showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms. The main impacts of the
front will likely reach apf around 11-12z, and the atlantic
terminals by 13-14z.VFR, outside of any passing shower, should
then prevail Thursday late afternoon.

Prev discussion... Issued 404 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
discussion...

latest surface analysis shows cold front across north central
florida at this time. This is not a classic front and as such it is
hard to discern it based on looking at the wind fields or even
pressure fields. Although based on the latter there is a bit of a
pre frontal trough across the lake region. But the leading edge
of a distinctive airmass remains to the north across north
central florida. Although integrated water vapor or precipitable
water shows values running 20-30 above normal, low and mid levels
water vapor channels show fairly dry conditions associated with
low to mid level ridge still in control across the region. This is
reflected in 12z sounding this morning with a low to mid level
cap based around 650-600mb. Overall, very limited convective
activity outside a few widely scattered showers earlier today
across the atlantic waters. That said, consensus of the short term
hi res guidance continues to show showers developing across
interior west and west coast next few hours and this is reflected
in the forecast.

Short term... Tonight through Friday night
consensus of model guidance moves the front or leading edge of
drier cooler airmass during the morning hours on Thursday across
western sections of south florida and by early mid afternoon
through the east coast. Cross sectional analysis of the front
shows not much in terms of the kinematics and associated forcing
with upper level forcing remaining well north of the region as
well. Ensemble based model anomaly fields do not show any notable
departures from normal in the height, dynamic, and thermodynamic
fields associated with this front either. Therefore, the
consensus of the guidance looks about right pointing to a chance
of showers ahead of the front this afternoon through tomorrow
morning across interior and west coast with a chance along east
coast lingering through tomorrow afternoon and across the atlantic
waters through Thursday night. There is a slight chance of a
thunderstorm with any activity developing this afternoon evening
across the interior and may be tomorrow just ahead of the front.

Outside of general thunder, no concerns at this time for strong
storms. Clouds will be gradual to clear behind the front in
lingering moisture band through Friday with scattered clouds
remaining along portions of the east coast and southern portions
of south florida through the rest of the period behind the front.

Main change with this front will be a much drier and cooler airmass.

Day time highs will be around normal tomorrow (particularly along
east coast) and below normal by as much as 4 to 8 deg or so on
Friday across all of south florida. Morning lows will also see a
substantial change next couple of days. In fact, relative to
tonight, morning lows on Friday will drop by as much as 10 to 15
deg along east coast and as much as 15 to 20 deg across the nw
interior in areas west of lake okeechobee and towards naples.

Overall the morning lows Friday and Saturday morning will be
dropping to below normal by around 5 degrees or less Friday
morning and a bit less than that along east coast Saturday
morning. The magnitude of the change and the actual temps that are
expected is a reflection of how warm morning lows have been
running as of late.

Extended forecast... Saturday through Wednesday
high pressure ridge will be building north of the region through the
weekend with morning lows bouncing back up to near normal by
Sunday morning and a tad above normal, yet really pleasant,
through early next week. Day time highs will warm up as well
through the period but only slightly expected to remain near
normal or even may be slightly below. It will remain dry through
most of the weekend but by late in the weekend and into early next
week a slight chance to a chance of showers is forecast along
atlantic waters and adjacent east coast as low level flow turns
out of the northeast and east with low level limited moisture
gradually on the increase.

Marine...

small craft advisory conditions are possible tomorrow ahead of the
front along the offshore gulf waters with small craft exercise
caution conditions across much of the gulf and atlantic waters
through at least first half of Friday behind the front before
conditions begin to improve into the weekend.

Beach forecast...

there will be a moderate to high risk of rip currents along the
gulf coast beaches on Thursday ahead of the front with the risk
increasing to moderate or even high along east coast by Friday
and remaining elevated through the much of the weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 74 83 59 74 20 50 10 0
fort lauderdale 76 84 62 74 20 40 20 0
miami 75 84 62 75 20 50 20 0
naples 72 79 56 72 50 50 0 0

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 52 ps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 4 mi52 min E 9.9 G 12 82°F 83°F1015.7 hPa (+0.0)
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 14 mi52 min ESE 17 G 17 81°F 81°F1016.5 hPa (+0.0)
PEGF1 21 mi52 min E 12 G 15 82°F 1015.8 hPa (+0.0)
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 21 mi52 min SE 8 G 11 81°F 1016 hPa (+0.0)75°F
MDKF1 37 mi172 min 85°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 40 mi172 min 85°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 41 mi112 min 83°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 42 mi172 min 83°F
THRF1 42 mi172 min 83°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 45 mi172 min 85°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 45 mi172 min 82°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 46 mi172 min 83°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 47 mi112 min 84°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 49 mi112 min 82°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 49 mi112 min 80°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 49 mi112 min 82°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 49 mi112 min 83°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL7 mi59 minESE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F75°F87%1016.2 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL10 mi59 minSE 810.00 miA Few Clouds80°F75°F87%1016.4 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL15 mi59 minSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds81°F75°F82%1016.5 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL17 mi59 minESE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F75°F82%1015.9 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL19 mi59 minSE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F77°F90%1015.7 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL24 mi56 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F84%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE6SE7E8SE10SE10SE13
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2 days agoE9E8E8E7E7E9E7E7E9E12SE12SE12E13E14SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for San Marino Island, Florida
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San Marino Island
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Wed -- 01:15 AM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:29 AM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:56 PM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:15 PM EST     0.95 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:33 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.22.21.91.61.310.80.811.31.722.32.42.321.71.31.1111.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
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Wed -- 01:44 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:53 AM EST     -1.03 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:04 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:29 AM EST     1.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:27 PM EST     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:41 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:51 PM EST     1.37 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:33 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.7-0.2-0.9-1-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.10.91.61.61.41.10.3-0.5-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.8-0.50.31.11.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.