Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chokoloskee, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:37PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 11:42 AM EST (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 11:06AMMoonset 10:21PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ657 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 930 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of today..East northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming around 10 knots in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet in the evening. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 956 Am Cst Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis..Winds will become southeasterly today as high pressure builds over the eastern gulf. A moderate to strong onshore flow will develop tonight into Thursday night ahead of the next approaching cold front. Winds become northwesterly behind the front late this week into this weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are likely late this week into the first part of the weekend due to strong winds and rough seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chokoloskee, FL
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location: 25.8, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 121350 aab
afdmfl
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service miami fl
850 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Update
Lows this morning got down into the 40s over most of south
florida, except lower to mid 50s southeastern portions of the
area and mid to upper 30s west of lake okeechobee.

High pressure over the southeastern united states will continue to
move slowly move east into the western atlantic waters through
Thursday. This will allow for the steering flow to become more
easterly and increase to breezy conditions this afternoon into
Thursday. This will allow for an enhance threat of rip currents
along the east coast beaches through Thursday, and the high risk
of rip currents has been expanded to include all of the east coast
beaches through Thursday evening. The weather will also remain
dry over south florida today into tonight.

There is also a small northeast swell of 2 to 4 feet that will
continue to affect the atlantic waters through this evening. This
will keep the seas at 5 to 7 feet in the atlantic waters today.

Therefore, the SCA conditions will continue for the atlantic
waters through this evening.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

Update 54 bnb

Prev discussion issued 639 am est Wed dec 12 2018
aviation...

sct to brief bkn ceilings 4,000-5,000 feet at east coast sites as
winds become northeast to east and bring atlantic moisture back
into the area. Prevailing bkn ceilings at similar levels after 00z
east coast sites, althoughVFR conditions will continue to
prevail. Gulf coast kapf will have only sct clouds through the
period. Light nw-n wind early, becoming 060-080 degrees at 10-12
knots after 16z, then 090-110 degrees 8-10 knots after 00z.

Prev discussion... Issued 320 am est Wed dec 12 2018
discussion...

a chilly morning across south florida so far this morning with the
coolest temps of the week thus far due to clear skies and
radiational cooling. The threat for frost is non- zero for hendry
and especially glades counties, but with temperatures dropping
just a degree or two below 40 and winds not completely calm, the
risk seems low enough to keep out of grids forecast. Otherwise,
this mornings low temps are forecast to drop in the lower 40s
across the lake region, low- mid 40s across the gulf coast, and
upper 40s to low 50s for the east coast.

As high pressure slides eastward into the atlantic today, winds
start veering from the east, consequently commencing the
warming moistening trend. Because of this, blue skies will
gradually fill with clouds and a quick passing shower can't be
ruled out over the atlantic waters .Even so, high temps for
Wednesday will only rise into the low-mid 70s across the region.

By Thursday, the combination between high pressure across the
atlantic and a parent low pressure system lurking across tx ar
will aid in a predominantly southeasterly flow. This will spur
deeper moisture and an increase in showers across the region with
forecast derived pwat values increasing up to 1.00 inches
Thursday.

As the work week comes to an end, so does the drier weather. By
Friday, forecast derived pwats swiftly increase up to 2.00 inches
and rain chances spread across the CWA as the aforementioned low
pressure system and associated cold front traverse across the
southern gulf states. With this in mind, GFS has an increase in
cape values on Friday across much of the area with some areas
exceeding 1100 j kg. The problem here is that both GFS and ecmwf
differ on the exact timing of fropa, so the timing of possible
thunderstorms, etc. Are still a bit iffy. GFS continues to trend
faster than ECMWF with FROPA Saturday morning afternoon whereas
ecmwf is insisting on a Sunday morning fropa. This gap in timing
leads to low forecast confidence beyond Friday and could create
some variability in the weekend forecast as the week continues.

Because of this, pops are again capped at 50 percent for the time
being Friday into Saturday, though grids are favoring GFS moreso
than ecmwf. The strong to severe storm potential with this next
low pressure system is still too far in time to discern right now,
especially with variances in models; however, the forecast
evolution will continue to be monitored through the week in case a
threat emerges.

Into early next week (after fropa), high pressure returns and nw
will winds prevail, allowing for a dry and pleasant conditions,
along with cooler temps.

Marine...

as NE winds of 15-20 kt prevail across the atlantic waters, seas
of 6-8 ft, with occasional 8 ft waves, are possible. Because of
the higher seas, a small craft advisory is valid to 1 pm this
afternoon for the atlantic. Small craft exercise caution should
be followed through the first half of the day Wednesday for the
gulf waters as winds stay within 15-20 kt. Wind speeds will
continue to lower Wednesday and Thursday but could increase to
near advisory levels again for the atlantic waters on Friday.

Increasing moisture will also bring a chance of showers early
Wednesday and then Thursday into Friday for the atlantic. The
next cold front is poised to impact the waters sometime between
late Friday and late Saturday.

Winds and seas will slowly start to improve across the atlantic
and gulf waters towards the end of the weekend.

Beach forecast... In concerns to the atlantic, a high risk of rip
currents will exist today across palm beach county beaches thanks
to an easterly wind component and easterly swells. Outside of
palm beach county beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents will
prevail. As the week progresses, moderate to high risk of rip
currents will be possible across the atlantic coast, especially as
easterly winds continue. &&

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 73 63 77 68 0 20 30 30
fort lauderdale 74 67 78 72 10 20 20 20
miami 74 65 78 70 10 20 20 20
naples 73 59 78 66 0 10 10 40

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Thursday evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for amz650-651-
670-671.

Gm... None.

Update... 54 bnb
discussion... 03 fell
marine... 03 fell
aviation... 54 bnb
beach forecast... Bnb fell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 8 mi102 min 66°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 11 mi102 min 65°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 19 mi102 min 66°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 22 mi102 min 61°F
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 26 mi117 min 58°F 46°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 29 mi102 min 65°F
HREF1 30 mi102 min 68°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 33 mi102 min 67°F
SREF1 33 mi102 min 68°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 34 mi162 min 65°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 34 mi48 min ENE 5.1 G 9.9 61°F 66°F1025 hPa
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 34 mi102 min 66°F
CWAF1 39 mi162 min 63°F
NRRF1 39 mi102 min 66°F
LRIF1 43 mi102 min 64°F
WWEF1 45 mi162 min 65°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL33 mi49 minENE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F46°F56%1025 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Chokoloskee, Florida
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Chokoloskee
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:06 AM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:13 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:52 PM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.21.92.52.72.72.421.510.50.200.10.61.31.92.42.52.421.61.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Indian Key, Florida
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Indian Key
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:47 AM EST     3.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:18 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:33 PM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:14 PM EST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:22 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.333.53.73.42.92.31.50.80.30.10.10.61.42.22.93.33.432.51.91.41.21.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.