Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chokoloskee, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:57PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:31 PM EDT (03:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:46AMMoonset 7:03PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ657 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 922 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of tonight..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Tuesday..NEarshore, east northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Offshore, east northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 1 second increasing to 2 seconds after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and southeast 5 to 10 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Showers likely.
Thursday night..South southwest winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Saturday..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 421 Pm Cdt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis..A weak surface ridge of high pressure will build west over the eastern and north central gulf through early Wednesday leading to a light east to southeast wind flow through mid week, becoming west to southwest later in the week. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms are expected each day through the week with the best coverage occurring during the overnight and early morning hours each day.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chokoloskee, FL
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location: 25.8, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 212347
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
747 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Update
Quick update to adjust pops for tonight based on radar and
satellite trends. Convection associated with the bahamian tropical
wave has waned a bit the last few hours. This may be a diurnal
minimum. With an increase in moisture still approaching, model
trends support scattered additional convection developing
overnight over the atlantic waters and approaching the southeast
coast around sunrise. Otherwise no changes to the previous
forecast.

Aviation
Scattered showers with brief MVFR or ifr conditions expected to
affect fll mia area sites through about 03z, otherwise mainly dry
andVFR will prevail for most of the night. Winds 060-080 degrees 10
knots or less all sites, shifting to 100-110 degrees 10-12 knots by
15z Tuesday as trough moves into area. Trough will introduce deeper
moisture and increased showers across all of south florida during
day on Tuesday, with prob30 for tsra MVFR brief ifr at all sites
from 15z-18z onward.

Prev discussion issued 357 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
discussion...

scattered cumulus clouds dot the south florida sky at mid
afternoon as the eclipse comes to an end. The area is under a
subsident regime between two tropical waves with a well-defined
capping inversion on the mfl 12z sounding. Goes-16 imagery
indicates the next tropical wave (called invest 92l by the
national hurricane center) rapidly approaching from the east. In
fact kamx 88d indicates scattered showers already beginning to
cross the east coast.

Tonight and Tuesday: coverage and intensity of showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected to steadily increase tonight over the
east coast. Activity may hold off til closer til sunrise near the
collier gulf coast and glades hendry counties. High resolution
guidance suggests convection that moves in will have the
potential for efficient rain rates especially toward sunrise and
during the day. Coverage increases Tuesday as the axis of the
tropical wave moves over and then just northwest of the area and
the region enters the more favorable sector for upward motion.

Wednesday through Friday: the leftover vorticity associated with
the tropical wave comes nearly to a halt over the area wed-thu.

This will yield a deep southeasterly fetch tapping rich tropical
moisture with several weak disturbances bringing periods of
convection. Whether 92l develops a surface cyclone near the region
is not the most important thing to focus on in terms of impacts.

Regardless of the scientific classification of the system, the
most significant impacts are likely to be from periods of heavy
rain.

This weekend: the trailing front from the canadian low gradually
sinks into the southeast us and approaches northern florida. This
front will likely absorb whatever vorticity remains of 92l just
northeast of our region. This will keep southerly southwesterly
flow with rich moisture overhead, favorable for continued periods
of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain.

Impacts from heavy rain through the weekend: typically prone
areas of poor drainage will be at increased risk of ponding water
and occasional minor flooding. Areas of street flooding are also
likely to be an issue during periods of heavy rain. While there is
some risk for more significant flooding problems beyond the usual
vulnerable roads and low spots, there is not enough confidence
yet regarding timing location of the greatest threat to justify a
flood watch. However, a watch may still be needed later in the
week as the ground saturates.

Marine...

over the atlantic waters, a fresh easterly breeze today will
gradually decrease Tuesday to gentle as winds turn out of the
southeast, eventually swinging to southerly or southwesterly by
the weekend. Over the gulf waters and lake okeechobee, a moderate
easterly breeze tonight will become variable in both direction
and speed from Tuesday into the weekend, but remaining generally
below 15 knots. A moderate chop and seas to 4 feet tonight will
gradually improve Tuesday into the latter half of the week.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected tonight
though the coming weekend, with locally gusty winds and higher
waves near thunderstorms.

Beach forecast...

a moderate risk of rip currents will continue through the night at
the atlantic beaches as moderate gusty onshore winds continue. The
risk will gradually diminish back to slight levels Tuesday.

Prev discussion... Issued 150 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through this evening. Winds this
afternoon will be east around 15 kts gusting to 20-23 kts for
east coast terminals. Tropical wave approaching from the east will
bring vcsh tonight for east coast terminals. Increasing coverage
of showers along with some thunder possible after 09z and
continuing into Tuesday for east coast sites. MVFR conditions
likely at times on Tuesday morning for east coast sites. Showers
are unlikely to be near apf until after 15z. Future shifts will
evaluate potential for tempo groups and possibly shra in
prevailing.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 82 93 80 91 30 50 40 60
fort lauderdale 81 90 80 90 40 50 50 60
miami 81 91 79 90 40 60 50 60
naples 79 92 77 92 20 70 50 60

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update discussion marine beach forecast... 22 ks
aviation... 59 rm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 8 mi151 min 89°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 11 mi151 min 90°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 19 mi151 min 88°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 22 mi151 min 88°F
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 26 mi106 min E 2.9 80°F 75°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 29 mi151 min 87°F
HREF1 30 mi151 min 85°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 33 mi151 min 86°F
SREF1 33 mi151 min 87°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 34 mi43 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 89°F1019.6 hPa
NRRF1 39 mi151 min 86°F
LRIF1 43 mi151 min 89°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL33 mi38 minENE 410.00 miFair82°F73°F77%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE6NE8E7NE6NE6E5NE7NE8E7E7E8SE7E6E8E8E11E11E10E11E7E6E5NE4
1 day agoE5E5SE6E5E4CalmNE5NE4E6NE5NE10E8E11NE10E9
G14
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2 days agoE5E10N3N3CalmCalmN3E5E4E55E4NW3NE3W5W7W8NW8NW104N4NE5SE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for Chokoloskee, Florida
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Chokoloskee
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:11 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:29 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 02:42 PM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:26 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.12.133.33.22.82.21.510.70.71.32.23.13.83.93.73.22.41.60.80.3-0.10

Tide / Current Tables for Pavilion Key, Florida
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Pavilion Key
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:00 AM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:39 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:31 PM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:36 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.34.24.54.23.42.51.510.91.42.33.54.55.25.24.73.82.71.50.6-0-0.10.51.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.