Friday, May25, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Chokoloskee, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:13PM Friday May 25, 2018 2:50 PM EDT (18:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:44PMMoonset 3:10AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ657 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 1003 Am Edt Fri May 25 2018
Rest of today..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers with isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening...then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet after midnight. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening. Showers through the night. A chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers through the day. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday and Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1139 Am Cdt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis..Light to moderate onshore flow continues through tonight before shifting to more easterly and increasing Saturday night. Winds and seas then see a more dramatic increase Sunday and Monday as sub-tropical storm alberto approaches from the south. Conditions during that period will be hazardous. This system is expected to move onshore late Monday evening, with winds and seas gradually subsiding Tuesday into the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chokoloskee, FL
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location: 25.8, -81.34     debug

Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 251809
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
209 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Widespread showers have enveloped south florida today, so tempo
groups in place through the evening. There may be a brief lull
tonight before more widespread showers move in after 8-12z
Saturday (handled with shra). Isolated thunderstorms are possible,
but aside from after daybreak Saturday in miami-dade terminals,
probability of lightning is too low to warrant mention in the
tafs. On and off cig restrictions are expected through this
evening associated with the heavier showers, but more widespread
sub-vfr CIGS are likely late tonight and through the day Sunday as
the atmosphere continues to near toward complete saturation. Ese
wind around 10 kt through sunset, then 5-10 kt overnight,
increasing to 15 kt or so by Saturday afternoon.

Flood watch has been posted effective 12z Saturday through 0z
Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with locally
much higher amounts, are expected, and this may lead to flooding.

Additional information on this watch and subsequent forecast
updates will come later later this afternoon, but for now, see
miaffamfl for information.

Prev discussion issued 1121 am edt Fri may 25 2018
update 2...

the tropical storm probabilities on newly formed subtropical
storm alberto are 15 percent or less for all of south florida.

Therefore, no updates are required at this time to the forecast
for south florida.

Update 2... 54 bnb
prev discussion... Issued 1001 am edt Fri may 25 2018

scattered showers have moved inland with sea breeze from the
atlantic. Expect coverage to increase through the day, especially
across the western interior, where locally heavy rainfall is most
likely. No significant changes in the forecast this morning.

Convective chances appear quite low based on 12z RAOB analysis.

The tropical disturbance east of the yucatan peninsula now has a
90 percent chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours, and
this feature, the main player in our holiday weekend weather, will
continue to be closely monitored.

Prev discussion... Issued 347 am edt Fri may 25 2018

primary forecast concern continues to be the probable development of
a tropical cyclone in the central or eastern gulf of mexico over the
next few days. The national hurricane center currently indicates a
70 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours
and a 90 percent chance of development within five days.

Some important differences remain among the numerical models and
ensembles regarding the eventual track and inner structure of the
cyclone, and how it interacts with a developing shortwave trough
over the western gulf, but there is general agreement in the
disturbance initially moving N or nne out of the yucatan channel
later tonight into the eastern or central gulf, before bending
northwestward as it moves into the northern or northeastern gulf
Sunday. The closest approach of the low to the SW fl gulf coast
will likely be Saturday night or Sunday morning.

A deep, long southerly fetch will set up over south florida
tonight into the weekend, between the developing cyclone over the
gulf and the ridge of high pressure over the western atlantic.

This plume will be characterized by anomalously high atmospheric
moisture content, with precipitable water values in the 2 to 2.4
inch range (90th-plus percentile of the climatological range for
late may). This will promote efficient warm rain processes and the
potential for excessive rainfall rates. Bands of heavy rain that
train over the same location will be a concern for significant
street flooding and may even threaten some structures in
vulnerable low-lying areas. Given the uncertainty in the location
and timing of the heaviest rain, it is still too early for a
flood watch to be issued, though one may be required in later

A low level jet of 35 to 45 kts is also likely to set up over s
fl late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast hodographs show a strong
anti-clockwise loop in the lower troposphere, with 0-1 km sreh
potentially exceeding 200 m2 s2 at times, along with sufficient
cape of 500-1000 j kg. Therefore, isolated tornadoes will be a
concern with any discrete convective elements during that time

On Monday, the cyclone's forward motion slows or stalls over the
deep south, keeping S fl in the southerly plume, so high chances
for showers and thunderstorms will continue with ongoing
potential for locally heavy rain.

By mid-week, models begin to diverge on how quickly to kick out
or fill the surface cyclone, with some indication upper troughing
may continue into the gulf with a west atlantic high remaining in
place. This may continue the pattern of moist southerly flow and
elevated rain chances, but given the uncertainty, pops are trended
gradually toward climatology by later in the week.


with the gulf low moving south to north just west of our gulf
waters, southeasterly winds over the local waters will increase
steadily tonight through Saturday over the local waters, peaking
out Saturday night into Sunday. There is the potential for
frequent gusts near or above tropical storm force in the offshore
gulf waters. Hazardous seas may peak near 10 feet by Saturday
night in the offshore gulf waters and near 7 feet in the atlantic

Beach forecast...

the risk of rip currents will increase at both the atlantic
and gulf beaches through the weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 73 80 74 83 50 80 60 80
fort lauderdale 75 80 76 83 60 80 70 80
miami 74 80 76 83 70 80 70 80
naples 71 81 73 85 70 90 70 80

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... Flood watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 23 sk
discussion... 22 ks
marine... 22 ks
aviation... 23 sk
beach forecast... 22 ks

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 8 mi111 min 79°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 11 mi111 min 80°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 19 mi111 min 79°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 22 mi111 min 79°F
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 26 mi126 min 82°F 75°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 29 mi111 min 81°F
HREF1 30 mi111 min 79°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 33 mi111 min 81°F
SREF1 33 mi111 min 81°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 34 mi171 min 80°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 34 mi81 min 78°F 81°F1015.2 hPa
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 34 mi111 min 79°F
CWAF1 39 mi171 min 81°F
NRRF1 39 mi111 min 82°F
LRIF1 43 mi111 min 82°F
WWEF1 45 mi171 min 80°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL33 mi58 minE 610.00 miLight Rain78°F78°F100%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW10S66SE5E4E5E5NE4NE4NE3NE5NE5NE6E6E5E5NE5E7E7SE10SE11SE105E6
1 day agoCalmS7SW4CalmE8CalmE7NE5E5E4CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmNE4NE4NE5E5E7NE7E8E6SE9
2 days agoSE10E8E7E113CalmE7E6E4E5E5E5E4E5E6E6NE5E8E9E10E9E8SE4NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Chokoloskee, Florida
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Fri -- 12:17 AM EDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:31 PM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Pavilion Key, Florida
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Pavilion Key
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:20 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:06 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.