Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Plantation Island, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:36PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:29 PM EST (17:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:28AMMoonset 7:31PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ657 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 947 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Rest of today..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and northeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west southwest. Seas around 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning...then showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds becoming 1 second after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers late in the evening.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..North winds around 5 knots becoming south southeast 5 knots in the morning. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Thursday..West southwest winds 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West southwest winds around 5 knots becoming south in the morning. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..NEarshore, east southeast winds 5 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Offshore, north northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 950 Am Cst Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis..Northerly winds and seas will continue to diminish this morning as a surface ridge of high pressure builds over the region. A light easterly wind will develop later today as the ridge of high pressure shifts east. A moderate to strong northerly flow is expected Wednesday through early Friday as a weak surface low develops over the northeast gulf and moves east.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plantation Island, FL
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location: 25.82, -81.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 201442
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
942 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Update
A few changes with this update that include adjusting pops along
the atlantic coast to reflect new hi-res modeling this morning.

Also, the wind across the gulf are no longer forecast to be above
small craft advisory criteria, so that advisory is now cancelled.

The adjustment to pops is fairly minor, mainly just fine tuning
the pop, not really changing the locations where rain may occur.

Prev discussion issued 648 am est Mon nov 20 2017
aviation...

the wind is forecast to become NE this morning and increase to
around 15kts, with a few higher gusts. Shra is moving into the
area already this morning, so, vcsh is in TAF for the entire
period for most east coast terminals. In generalVFR conditions,
other than only brief ifr restrictions possible in and near
showers through the day.

Prev discussion... Issued 311 am est Mon nov 20 2017
discussion...

synopsis: an unsettled pattern setting up as a front stalls over
the region today and a series of disturbances moves over the
region Tuesday and again late in the week.

Near term (today-tonight): the front now moving through south
florida will stall out later today near the southern tip of the
peninsula. Showers have been forming overnight over the atlantic
waters along and behind the surface boundary, and the front will
continue to be a focus for showers today. As winds veer to more
easterly and the residual boundary begins to retreat northward,
the showers are likely to spread back over south florida from
southeast to northwest this afternoon and tonight.

Short term (Tuesday-Wednesday): as the remnant front continues
moving northward Tuesday, the greatest concentration of showers
will also shift northward into the lake okeechobee palm beach
region and up into central florida. However, with a relatively
moist air mass in place and a shortwave trough approaching from
the gulf, scattered showers will be possible at times farther
south Tuesday. The strengthening wind fields aloft and focused
upward motion ahead of the shortwave trough should be sufficient
for a few scattered thunderstorms Tuesday, particularly northern
sections closer to the front. Wednesday now appears to be a
relatively dry day with the remnant surface boundary north of the
area and lower tropospheric subsidence in the wake of the
departing shortwave trough.

Medium range (Thursday-Friday night): medium range models are
still having some difficulty with a complex mid troposphere
evolution expected. What they agree on is some vorticity dropping
into the gulf Thursday, prompting cyclogenesis by Thursday morning
along the low level shear axis (remnant front). The timing of the
main shortwave trough turning the corner and lifting out is still
tricky, with the GFS now a bit faster than the ecmwf. So the
period from Thursday afternoon through early Friday will have the
highest chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms, but some
rain risk may stretch into late Friday if the slower ecmwf
solution is correct.

Weekend: although there air mass behind the late week storm
system is not particularly cold, steadily drier air should invade
the region, bringing clearing skies Saturday and allowing low
temperatures to fall into the lower 50s northwest to lower 60s
southeast beaches Sunday morning.

Marine...

northerly wind surge behind the front is bringing 20-25 knot winds
to the atlantic and gulf waters early this morning. Winds on the
gulf side will diminish this afternoon as the front washes out,
but the pressure gradient will remain tight over the atlantic
waters through tonight as wind veer around to easterly, so
hazardous boating conditions will continue. The fresh breeze will
be accompanied by significant wave heights of 7 feet or so in the
gulf stream. Conditions improve Tuesday on through the rest of
the week, though scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
and again on Thursday into Friday.

Beach forecast...

there will be a moderate risk of rip currents at the atlantic
beaches today as onshore winds increase. If winds come around to
easterly and increase faster than currently forecast, a later
upgrade to high risk may become necessary. Regardless, beachgoers
should be aware of the risk of rip currents today.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 79 72 81 67 10 60 50 20
fort lauderdale 79 73 83 69 40 70 40 20
miami 80 72 84 69 50 60 40 20
naples 83 67 83 66 10 20 60 20

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Tuesday for amz650-651-670-
671.

Gm... None.

Update... 13
discussion... 22 ks
marine... 22 ks
aviation... 13
beach forecast... 22 ks


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 22 mi105 min 76°F 64°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 23 mi90 min 75°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 26 mi90 min 74°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 30 mi48 min E 7 G 12 1017.7 hPa
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 33 mi90 min 74°F
HREF1 33 mi90 min 74°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 37 mi150 min 75°F
SREF1 37 mi90 min 75°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 37 mi90 min 74°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 37 mi150 min 75°F
CWAF1 42 mi150 min 75°F
NRRF1 43 mi90 min 75°F
LRIF1 46 mi90 min 75°F
WWEF1 48 mi150 min 74°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL29 mi37 minENE 1310.00 miFair78°F62°F58%1017.4 hPa

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Last 24hrW9SW8W7W7W6W6W5W4W3NW6N4N4N7N8NE8NE9NE10NE12NE10NE7NE12E9E14NE13
1 day ago3W8W7W7W5W4W4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W8W7
2 days agoNE10NE9NE8
G16
NE11NE9NE6NE5NE5NE5E6NE5NE5E6E5E4NE4NE3NE3NE3NE6NE5E7NE7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Chokoloskee, Florida
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Chokoloskee
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:18 AM EST     3.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:11 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:39 PM EST     3.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:30 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:51 PM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.83.23.22.92.41.81.10.50-0.200.61.52.42.932.72.21.71.10.80.71

Tide / Current Tables for Round Key, Florida
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Round Key
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:46 AM EST     4.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:26 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:32 PM EST     3.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:31 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:23 PM EST     1.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.54.64.43.832.11.20.4-0.1-0.10.71.82.83.43.83.83.42.92.31.91.51.62.33.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.