Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 2:09 PM   Moonset 2:12 AM

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GMZ657 Expires:202405171500;;339788 Fzus52 Kmfl 170201 Cwfmfl
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service miami fl 1000 pm edt Thu may 16 2024
atlantic coastal waters from jupiter inlet to ocean reef out to 60 nm and gulf coastal waters from east cape sable to chokoloskee out 20 nm and chokoloskee to bonita beach out 60 nm - .including the waters of biscayne bay and lake okeechobee.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz656-657-676-171500- coastal waters from chokoloskee to bonita beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from east cape sable to chokoloskee fl out 20 nm- waters from chokoloskee to bonita beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- 1000 pm edt Thu may 16 2024
Rest of tonight - W winds 5 kt becoming S sw after midnight. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Fri night - S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: S sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Sun and Sun night - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Tue - N nw winds around 5 kt becoming W nw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Tue night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N ne after midnight. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night.

GMZ600 1102 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis - Southerly winds will increase to moderate by Friday, along with building seas, ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring showers and Thunderstorms to the marine area tonight through Saturday. It should be noted that a wake low may possibly develop late tonight behind the initial line of storms, which could lead to a brief window of gusty winds for marine zones near the coast. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front.

FXUS62 KMFL 162338 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 738 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 726 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity from earlier has dissipated and given way to mainly dry conditions across the region. West southwesterly winds will gradually become light and variable as the evening progresses. There will be enough lower level moisture in place to support patchy fog development over portions of Southwest Florida during the overnight hours. The best chances of fog development will be over the interior sections. Any fog that does develop will lift shortly after sunrise on Friday morning.
Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s along the east and west coast.

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The frontal boundary has stalled over Central Florida and is expected to sit there before the mid-level trough departs out of the area by tomorrow. The stationary front will allow tropical moisture to pool over the region and keep dew points in the 70s. Combining this with low level flow out of the SW will keep hot and muggy conditions across all of South Florida and keep the environment unstable. The latest 12Z sounding and aircraft soundings show anywhere between ~3000-4000 J/kg of CAPE with PWATs just under 2 inches. With this profile, there will be potential for a few severe thunderstorms again today for the east coast counties. The soundings mainly show a large hail growth zone, which could produce hail of 1 inch or larger in some storms as well as severe wind gusts due to a potential core collapsing. Even with some melting of hail below the freezing level, it still possible for 1 inch hail with the aforementioned sounding parameters. There currently is a marginal risk for severe storms for all of Palm Beach and Broward counties (including the lake) plus the northern half of Miami-Dade. However, the highest threat for severe storms is expected for eastern Palm Beach and Broward counties. This is a result of multiple factors which include the strongest vorticity advection in the region occurring there, proximity to the stationary front, and SW flow in the low levels steering convection to those areas. Storms will be monitored as they develop throughout the day.

Skies will clear out tonight under nocturnal cooling and as broad ridging builds over the region. With winds becoming extremely light and variable and lingering moisture keeping dew points in the mid 70s overnight, some patchy fog will be possible for inland areas and extending to the west coast. For the day on Friday, the ridge will help stabilize the local atmosphere and keep conditions drier, but there will remain slight chances for a few showers and isolated storms as sea and gulf breezes develop in the afternoon. Further convection could occur from outflow boundaries and collisions between outflows and the sea/gulf breezes.

Temperatures for today will peak in the low to mid 90s and then increase into the mid to upper 90s for most locations on Friday.
Heat indices have the potential to rise into advisory criteria for several counties on Friday, and if trends continue then a Heat Advisory will be issued when deemed necessary.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Hazardous heat will be the primary concern for the upcoming weekend due to the lingering hot and humid airmass over South FL. The south- southwesterly flow, with the trough to our north, will keep the conditions in place allowing the temperatures to amplify further and likely peaking on Saturday. Therefore, most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory on Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well. Further details will be provided as we approach the weekend. High temperatures are expected to be in the 90s region wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro may struggle to dip below 80 degrees with some of the interior & GOMEX coast struggling to drop below the upper 70s.

By the late weekend into early next week, the mid-level troughing over the Southeast US will begin to dip further south and stall out in the area, finally sending a front through South Florida. On Sunday, there will be the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance (50-60%) in the northern half of the region, ahead of the frontal boundary as it moves across the Peninsula. As the front passes through region, there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms, with some strong storms possible to start the new week. After the front clears the area, a slightly cooler airmass will settle in through mid-week and provide relief from the recent stretch of heat with high temperatures likely in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area and low temperatures in the 70s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period. WSW winds will become light and variable this evening. Patchy fog may develop overnight over portions of interior SW Florida. Winds will increase out of the SW late Friday morning. Winds may shift to the SSE on Friday afternoon over the east coast terminals as a sea breeze pushes inland. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon around the east coast terminals, however, confidence is too low to put in TAFS this cycle.

MARINE
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Mainly benign conditions over the next few days with light to moderate west-southwest flow gradually turning southerly by this weekend. There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds.

BEACHES
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

There will be a moderate risk for rip currents along the Gulf coast today with onshore flow. Along the Atlantic, rip current risks will be low over the next several days with generally light, offshore flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 77 95 81 93 / 10 20 0 20 West Kendall 75 95 78 96 / 10 20 0 20 Opa-Locka 77 95 80 95 / 20 20 0 20 Homestead 76 95 80 94 / 10 20 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 94 81 92 / 20 30 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 77 93 80 93 / 20 30 10 30 Pembroke Pines 77 95 81 97 / 20 20 0 20 West Palm Beach 74 95 76 93 / 20 30 10 40 Boca Raton 76 93 78 94 / 20 30 10 30 Naples 78 91 79 93 / 10 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Chokoloskee
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Thu -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:59 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:06 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:24 PM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:17 PM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chokoloskee, Florida, Tide feet

Round Key
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Thu -- 02:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:57 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:46 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     1.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:57 PM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Round Key, Florida, Tide feet

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