Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:32PM Thursday December 13, 2018 3:06 AM EST (08:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:38AMMoonset 11:07PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 949 Pm Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of tonight..East southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas.
Friday..South southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday..North northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday night and Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 949 Pm Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis..Moderate to fresh east southeast winds are expected overnight, becoming southeasterly on Thursday. Cautionary conditions can be expected at times Thursday afternoon, potentially becoming hazardous Thursday night and Friday as winds veer southerly and pick up ahead of the next front. A few showers are possible the next few days over the waters, with more widespread showers and storms with the front late Friday into Saturday.
Gulf stream hazards..East southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas up to 6 feet overnight. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 11, 2018 at 1200 utc... 4 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east of port everglades. 6 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside, FL
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location: 25.84, -79.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 130620
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
120 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Aviation
High pressure will be weakening through the day as a strong low
pressure system develops over texas. This is forecast to turn the
wind to the SE later today, and pick up to 10 to 15 kts across the
area. Cloud cover is forecast to remain in place over the region,
but also remainVFR. Some isolated shra may also be possible along
the atlantic coast, with the best chances near kpbi.

Prev discussion issued 727 pm est Wed dec 12 2018
update...

temperatures are falling into the 60s this evening, with lessening
winds. No changes to this evenings forecast, as a few showers are
possible on east coast areas later tonight, otherwise quiet
conditions prevail.

Prev discussion... Issued 406 pm est Wed dec 12 2018
discussion...

short term (tonight through Friday night)
wind has turned easterly today as high pressure moved into the
atlantic. This has allowed for slightly warmer temperatures and
increased moisture. Maxima have still been about 5 degrees below
average for this time of year. Over the next 24 hours or so,
ridging will continue to push further east and florida weather
will become increasingly impacted by developing lopres over texas.

Flow will become southerly and strengthen as the work-week comes
to an end. A few showers can't be ruled out especially northeast
Thursday and Thursday night, but most areas will remain dry, with
temperatures moderating to seasonable warmth.

Friday and Friday night, although now only 48-72 hours out, still
hold an unusual amount of uncertainty in regard to timing of a
cold front that is expected to eventually move through the region.

Although GFS suggest an earlier FROPA Friday night early Saturday,
but ECMWF and NAM suggest delayed FROPA into Saturday night. Have
trended slightly later in the forecast grids for FROPA time, now
toward Saturday morning, which represents a blend consensus of the
guidance. Based on this forecast timing, the bulk of showers and
thunderstorms would hold off until Friday night, with only low
chances during the day Friday. Regarding risk of strong
convection, nearly unidirectional shear should be quite
significant, but instability will be waning Friday night and the
best dynamics lift will be north of the region. Still, there
appears to at least some risk of some strong wind gusts in the
projected convective band Friday night, especially over northern
portions of south florida. Needless to say, this risk and its
evolution based on refinements to FROPA timing, will be closely
monitored.

Long term (Saturday through Tuesday)
aforementioned cold front will move through this weekend, bringing
an end to shower and thunderstorm chances as well as some
cooler drier air. The timing differences have already been
mentioned, but by Sunday at the latest, the front should have
cleared the region.

Into early next week (after fropa), high pressure returns and nw
will winds prevail, allowing for a dry and pleasant conditions,
along with cooler temps.

Marine... Seas of up to 7 feet will continue into early evening on
atlantic waters, where a small craft advisory remains in effect
until 7 pm. Thereafter, seas and winds will likely remain at
cautionary levels tonight, before becoming more southeast at 10 to
15 kt Thursday. Ahead of a week-end storm system, south and
southeast wind will increase Thursday night into Friday, and this
may necessitate an additional small craft advisory.

Although a low chance of showers will exist beforehand, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase Friday into Friday night as a
cold front approaches.

Beach forecast... High risk of rip currents due to NE swell
combined with E SE wind of 15-20 mph is in effect for atlantic
waters through Thursday evening. This risk may continue into
Friday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 77 71 84 69 30 10 20 50
fort lauderdale 76 73 82 71 20 10 20 60
miami 79 72 83 71 10 10 20 60
naples 79 68 80 69 10 0 20 60

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for flz168-172-173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 23 sbk
discussion... 23 sbk
marine... 23 sbk
aviation... 13
beach forecast... 23 sbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 17 mi37 min E 8.9 G 12 1019.6 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi127 min ESE 17 G 19 73°F 76°F1021.2 hPa
PEGF1 21 mi43 min ESE 15 G 20 74°F 1019.7 hPa
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 22 mi43 min SE 11 G 17 74°F 1019.9 hPa60°F
MDKF1 47 mi127 min 69°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL22 mi74 minESE 710.00 miOvercast71°F57°F63%1020.5 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL22 mi74 minESE 1410.00 miOvercast72°F60°F66%1020 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL22 mi74 minESE 810.00 miOvercast72°F59°F64%1020.2 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL23 mi74 minESE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F57°F59%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6N6N54N6N7N5N6E10NE9NE9NE8NE12E10E9E9E6E7E10E8E7E9SE8E7
1 day agoCalmN3N4N10NW6N8
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2 days agoW3NW6W3W5NW6NW5NW8W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Haulover Pier, North Miami Beach, Florida (2)
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Haulover Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:46 AM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:08 PM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:27 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:07 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.11.71.30.80.50.40.611.522.42.62.52.11.71.20.80.60.60.81.21.72.1

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:23 AM EST     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:27 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     1.73 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:55 PM EST     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:05 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:22 PM EST     1.52 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:08 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.2-0.7-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.7-0.30.51.41.71.61.30.7-0.2-0.9-1.1-1-0.9-0.7-0.10.91.51.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.