Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Goodland, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 7:38PM Monday March 18, 2019 12:04 PM EDT (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:14PMMoonset 4:50AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 836 Am Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
Today..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots nearshore and northeast 15 to 25 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet with occasional to 6 feet offshore. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers.
Tuesday night..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and northeast 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North northeast winds around 10 knots nearshore and north northeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..North winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night and Friday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1038 Am Cdt Mon Mar 18 2019
Synopsis..Surface high pressure over the plains will shift east through the week, bringing general north to northeast flow to area waters. A weak cold front will re-enforce the moderate to strong offshore winds though tonight. Winds will ease through mid week, with another cold front moving across area waters Thursday re-enforcing the offshore flow for the latter half of the week into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goodland, FL
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location: 25.84, -81.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 181528
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1128 am edt Mon mar 18 2019

Update
The primary forecast concern remains the potential for heavy
rainfall along portions of the atlantic coast from late tonight
into Tuesday. There will be plenty of large-scale support for
ascent as a sharpening upper trough traverses the region, complete
with jet-level divergence and mid-level differential cyclonic
vorticity advection. With strong mass evacuation and diffluent
flow aloft, expect a surface wave low pressure center to initiate
along a stalled frontal zone over the western gulf tonight, while
developing northeastward towards the western bahamas by Tuesday
afternoon. We should remain along the cool side of the boundary,
with northeast flow from the atlantic setting up the potential for
coastal convergence along some portion of the east coast. Decent
moistening has already taken place today, as evidenced by the
18.12z mfl sounding's precipitable water value of 1.55 inches.

Very strong deep layer moisture advection will rapidly occur later
tonight, with column saturation commencing on Tuesday morning as
the precipitable water value increases to around 1.8 inches
(around the 99th percentile for this time of year). While corfidi
vectors remain progressive, it's noted that 850 mb moisture flux
convergence increases steadily between about 06z and 18z Tuesday
as the upper shortwave moves through. One negative for heavy rain
development is an apparent lack of instability (as we'll be on the
cool side of the front with very little if any instability).

However, isentropic analysis reveals strong upglide along the east
coast later tonight into tomorrow morning. This could be more
suggestive of a longer duration moderate rainfall event as
opposed to a shorter scale heavy one, but a lot of this will come
down to exactly how the mesoscale details play out. Regardless,
precipitation intensity should quickly dwindle by Tuesday
afternoon as the upper wave departs to our east.

There is a decently strong signal among both the global guidance
and smaller scale convection allowing models for heavy rainfall
occurring somewhere near or over the east coast. The greatest
potential for this appears to be for areas along and east of i-95
in portions of palm beach, broward, and miami-dade counties.

Aerial average forecast rainfall amounts in these areas are around
2-3 inches, with our probabilistic QPF painting a reasonable worst
case scenario of 4-6 inches, which could be achieved should a
persistent rainfall band set up along the coast. The cutoff for
these heavier amounts should be very sharp, with the odds for
seeing heavy rainfall rapidly decreasing as one moves inland and away
from the immediate coast. Of course, it's also plausible that the
heaviest rain falls just offshore leaving us with lower amounts.

Timing for this potential rain event is between about 10 pm
tonight and 1 pm tomorrow. We'll fine tune these mesoscale details
going forward, so keep up with the forecast.

Lowered high temperatures by a few degrees for today and tomorrow
given the expected cloud cover and showers.

Prev discussion issued 744 am edt Mon mar 18 2019
aviation...

scattered showers today will become more numerous late tonight
into at least Tuesday morning. Ceilings will favor MVFR through
much of the TAF period, with ifr possible, especially late
tonight into Tuesday morning. N-nne winds this morning should
transition towards nne-ne by early this afternoon and remain
prevailing from that direction. Speeds will increase tonight into
tomorrow with gusts to 25 kt possible. Periods of erratic wind
directions are also possible near any heavier showers.

Prev discussion... Issued 334 am edt Mon mar 18 2019
discussion...

a lingering frontal boundary across the area has made its final
push south into the florida straits on 03z wpc surface analysis.

With deeper moisture in place, showers across the peninsula will
become likely once again through late this afternoon and early
evening. The 00z mia sounding depicts shallow, northerly flow
through 850mb that indicates weak cold air advection, which will
moderate temperatures a bit cooler than the past few days.

An apparent shortwave trough in water vapor imagery over mexico
will rapidly traverse through the westerlies across the central
gulf and interact with the stalled boundary to produce weak
cyclogenesis. As the disturbance continues its trek eastward,
advection of deep tropical moisture coinciding with upper level
divergence from the subtropical jet aloft and mid-level impulses
riding across the state will provide enough lift for rainfall to
become more widespread by Tuesday into Wednesday. Much of the
thunderstorm chances look to remain further south, closer to the
boundary. However, some storms may become strong enough to produce
lightning, a few rumbles of thunder, and possibly waterspouts
primarily over the atlantic waters. Rainfall totals look to be
between 1 to 3 inches with experimental probabilistic qpf
indicating the possibility for higher accumulation of 4 to 6
inches over the palm beach and broward metro areas. Given the
expected increase in precipitation through the period, localized
flooding and ponding of water could result from periods of heavier
rainfall that produce higher accumulation. However, widespread
flooding is not expected.

Rain chances decrease on Thursday and for the remainder of the
forecast period as a another weak, dry frontal passage helps to
clear out the deeper moisture well to our south. Rainfall will
remain mostly along the atlantic and east coast until the front
clears. Thereafter, high pressure returns, allowing cooler and
drier air to filter in across the peninsula.

Marine...

boating conditions will deteriorate through the day as n-ne winds
increase and continue through at least early Thursday. Seas will
also build today through Wednesday up to 6 feet over the offshore
gulf waters and possibly 10 feet and above over the atlantic.

Therefore, a small craft advisory has been issued from this
afternoon and will likely be extended. A chance of showers will
exist through mid-week with thunderstorms possible over the
atlantic waters on Tuesday.

Aviation...

shra are expected around all TAF sites this afternoon (around
17z) due to a frontal boundary coupled with a trough. Tsra have
been kept out of forecast due to lack of confidence. CIGS will
favor MVFR throughout most the TAF period with ifr CIGS possible
overnight (towards the end of the TAF cycle around 19 06z). Wind
directions will be difficult through the period as they will
depend on front location and or outflows from nearby rain showers,
but models suggest an increase in wind speeds overnight.

Beach forecast...

increasing northeast winds today through mid-week will likely lead
to an enhanced risk of rip currents for the atlantic beaches
beginning late tonight through at at least Thursday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 73 65 69 64 60 90 90 70
fort lauderdale 75 65 70 66 50 90 90 70
miami 76 65 71 65 50 90 90 70
naples 69 59 65 59 40 80 90 50

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 8 pm edt
Wednesday for amz650-651-670-671.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Tuesday
for gmz676.

Update... 34 spm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 16 mi80 min N 8 66°F 61°F
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 19 mi65 min 78°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 22 mi65 min 80°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 24 mi35 min ENE 8 G 12 65°F 76°F1019 hPa
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 29 mi65 min 78°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 33 mi65 min 78°F
HREF1 39 mi65 min 77°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi65 min 79°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 42 mi71 min NE 11 G 13 64°F 1019.8 hPa
SREF1 42 mi65 min 78°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 43 mi65 min 78°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 44 mi65 min 77°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 44 mi125 min 79°F
CWAF1 48 mi125 min 77°F
NRRF1 49 mi65 min 79°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL24 mi72 minNE 1210.00 miOvercast66°F61°F84%1018.5 hPa

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Last 24hr--W6W8W10W8W8NW7NW5NW8N6N7NE8NE10NE7NE8NE8NE7NE9NE8N7NE8N8NE12NE7
1 day agoSW11SW10SW9SW10W9W8W7NW6NW4CalmCalmE4E4E4E3NE4E5E4NE5NE5N4NE5CalmCalm
2 days agoSE8E5CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmW6NW5CalmCalmCalmE6E4CalmCalmCalmSE5CalmSE5S6SW9SW11

Tide / Current Tables for Round Key, Florida
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Round Key
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:50 PM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:32 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.42.61.60.6-0.2-0.6-0.6-00.92.13.23.94.13.832.11.30.90.91.32.23.13.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Romano, Florida
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Cape Romano
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:19 AM EDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:39 PM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:24 PM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.61.91.10.2-0.4-0.7-0.6-0.10.81.82.73.23.332.41.81.20.911.422.73.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.