Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 9:33 AM   Moonset 11:54 PM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Tonight - NW winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E se after midnight. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Mon - S se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 foot at 2 seconds and nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tue - S se winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore - .except S se 15 to 20 kt well offshore. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tue night - S se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: S se 2 ft at 4 seconds and sw 2 ft at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W sw in the evening. Seas 1 to 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 7 seconds and S se 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms through the day. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Thu - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt near shore - . Except sw 5 to 10 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - NEar shore, W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S se after midnight. Well offshore, se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Fri and Fri night - S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.

GMZ600 937 Am Cdt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate easterly flow will transition to onshore flow this afternoon and persist into the early part of the coming week as a system approaches the area from the west. Increasing onshore flow and building seas are expected during the mid to late part of next week.

FXUS62 KMFL 121850 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 250 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Winds continue to veer NE, then E by late this afternoon and early evening in the wake of a FROPA. The boundary and attached weak meso low linger just south of the southern tip of the peninsula.
If model solutions prevail, the decaying boundary should begin lifting north and back across Soflo from Monday through Tuesday.
This will bring back the warmer sector right over the area, which may provide enough additional moisture for sea breeze showers (and maybe a thunderstorm) to develop with peak heating in the afternoons and evenings. Best POPs remain over the interior spine of the state, with chances increasing into the 30-40 percent by Wednesday.

Temperatures are expected to remain warm, with much of the area hitting the low 90s each afternoon. Sea breezes may keep coastal areas a bit cooler. Triple digit heat index values, particularly by Monday afternoon, point towards a developing heat illness threat for early in the work the week.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

The H5 ridge will move overhead on Tuesday before temporarily flattening Wed/Thu in response to a shortwave trough moving through the eastern US. The ridge is then progged to rebuild northward over the area Friday into the upcoming weekend.
Generally southerly low-lvl flow will prevail on Tuesday before the flow veers more southwesterly Wednesday/Thursday ahead of a cold front which is expected to stall in the vicinity of north- central Florida. The flow late this week into the weekend will likely favor the southerly half of the compass but the zonal component will likely be largely sea-breeze driven (i.e.
southwesterly near the west coast, and southeasterly near the east coast).

Rain chances on Tuesday will be limited to isolated showers and storms near the sea-breeze boundary intersection over the interior. Storm chances on Wednesday/Thursday will be dependent upon how far south the front is able to make, and will likely be focused primarily over the northern half of the area (closer to the boundary). Additionally as the synoptic SWrly flow decreases on Thursday the east coast sea breeze may provide a secondary forcing mechanism. Can't completely rule some stronger storms each day given that flow aloft will be seasonably strong, however this risk will largely depend upon how much forcing there is to actually generate storms. A drying trend is expected Friday into the weekend as the ridge builds overhead.

Hot temperatures will prevail through the period, generally in the low to mid 90s near the coast, and mid to upper 90s over the Interior. Peak heat indices will likely push or exceed 105 degrees on Wednesday with these high values then likely persisting through the period, as any significant relief due to frontal passages or widespread rain events looks unlikely. Given the magnitude and duration of the heat (combined with warm overnight lows) heat advisories may be needed for parts of the area over the mid-late week period.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Some periods of SCT MVFR ceilings are still possible this afternoon over the Atlantic terminals in the wake of a frontal passage. Winds continue to veer NE and then E through the rest of this afternoon. Speeds may reach the 10-15 kts range with higher gusts through this evening, while APF should see a westerly Gulf breeze through around 00Z. Winds wane to 5-10 kts tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Northerly winds will continue to shift east through this afternoon and evening as a decaying cold front lingers near the Keys. There might be enough lingering moisture for a few showers to develop this afternoon and evening, mainly over the Atlantic waters. The high building back in for much of the week should lower rain chances for the most part of the waters.

BEACHES
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

An elevated risk for rip currents continues today for the Palm Beaches. The risk for rip currents will likely extend into the rest of the Atlantic beaches on Monday as easterly flow becomes stronger.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

A relatively dry air mass will remain in place with minimum relative humidity values around 30 to 40 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the lack of recent wetting rainfall could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions even with winds forecasted to remain below critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 78 89 80 90 / 10 20 10 10 West Kendall 75 91 78 92 / 10 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 76 91 78 92 / 0 20 10 10 Homestead 77 89 79 90 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 78 87 80 89 / 10 30 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 77 87 79 90 / 10 20 10 20 Pembroke Pines 78 92 79 92 / 0 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 75 87 78 91 / 10 30 10 30 Boca Raton 76 89 78 91 / 10 30 10 20 Naples 75 92 78 92 / 0 20 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Round Key
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Sun -- 12:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:31 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:52 AM EDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:32 PM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:51 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
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Round Key, Florida, Tide feet

Cape Romano
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Sun -- 12:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:20 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:44 AM EDT     1.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:21 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:43 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Romano, Florida, Tide feet

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