Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 8:27 AM   Moonset 10:59 PM

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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 400 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less along the coast and 2 to 3 ft in the gulf stream. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Sun - Along the coast, N ne winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. In the gulf stream, N winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: N 3 ft at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds and N ne 2 ft at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Mon - E se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E ne 2 ft at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. Mon night through Tue night - S winds 20 to 25 kt along the coast to S 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E se 3 ft at 4 seconds and N 1 foot at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. Wed - S sw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and N 1 foot at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - S sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Thu - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - S se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 400 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis -
winds gradually shifting to a southwesterly, then westerly flow later today today as a cold front moves across the area. The front is associated with a low pressure system moving across the southeastern united states. Chances for showers and Thunderstorms will continue to increase today as the front approaches the local waters.
gulf stream hazards: none.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 11, 2024 at 12 utc - .
1 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 111853 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 253 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Models show a trough/low complex migrating east over the E CONUS, and sending an associated decaying cold front across the Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, 850-700 mb layer analyses still depict a rather dry layer of air persisting over the area. Even with the enhanced moisture accompanying the front, it may not be enough for significant deep convection to develop. Therefore, shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to remain limited, with better chances north of I-75. Latest model solutions show fair agreement in stalling the boundary just south of the area on Sunday.

Winds shift more westerly ahead of the front which keeps the ongoing warm trend. Expect widespread low-mid 90s this afternoon, with sea breezes maybe keeping immediate coastal areas a tad cooler. For Sunday, increasing cloud cover and northerly cooler flow should help in knocking down afternoon highs a few degrees.
Widespread triple digit heat index values are still expected today with mid to upper 90s on Sunday except for Miami- Dade County where the triple digit heat index values will return for another day.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Mid-lvl ridging will rebuild northward into SFL Monday/Tuesday, then briefly flatten mid-week as a shortwave passes to our north, and then finally build northward again in the late week period. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will support generally weak southerly flow over the area Monday/Tuesday (with the weekend cold front lifting north as a warm front in that timeframe). The low-lvl flow then veers more southwesterly mid- week as an area of low pressure moves into the SE US. The system's cold front looks to stall well north of the area, maintaining the warm prefrontal regime through the end of the week.

The main story in terms of sensible weather will be a return to near-record temperatures by the mid-week period (Wed/Thu) with widespread highs in the mid 90s (apart from the immediate coast)
with some upper 90s possible over the Interior. Peak heat indices will likely be even a touch higher than observed in the previous week's stretch of heat, with values at or even over 105 degrees possible Wed/Thu. Given we are still 5 days out, there still remains uncertainty on the degree of mixing (and thus dewpoint values), but even a heat advisory couldn't be ruled out for portions of the east coast in the mid-week period. It will certainly feel a lot more like July/August than mid May.

Given mid-lvl dry air and general synoptic subsidence, rain chances will only be in the 15-30% range through Tuesday with any activity primarily limited to the sea breezes over the Interior.
There may be some increase in storm chances over northern areas Wed/Thu as the front stalls to our north and associated MCSs/convectively enhanced shortwaves track near the area, although the building ridge may then usher a return to drier conditions late week.



AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Some MVFR/VFR periods are possible with showers or even a few thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminals, mainly over the Atlantic coast. WSW winds around 12 kts with gusts in the 20kts range will continue through around 00Z then should continue to veer northward later tonight in the wake of a frontal passage.

MARINE
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Winds will shift from WSW this afternoon to northerly overnight and into Sunday morning as a decaying cold front moves across the waters. There's a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the front. There might be enough lingering moisture for additional showers to develop on Sunday, mainly over the Atlantic waters.

BEACHES
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The risk for rip currents will increase early next week as winds gradually shift back to the ENE along the Atlantic beaches.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A relatively dry air mass will remain in place over the next few days, with minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the lack of recent wetting rainfall could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions even with winds forecasted to remain below critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 75 91 77 89 / 0 20 0 20 West Kendall 72 93 74 91 / 0 20 0 10 Opa-Locka 74 92 76 91 / 0 20 0 20 Homestead 74 90 77 89 / 0 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 75 88 77 87 / 10 20 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 74 89 77 88 / 10 20 10 20 Pembroke Pines 75 93 77 91 / 0 20 0 20 West Palm Beach 73 87 74 88 / 10 20 0 30 Boca Raton 74 88 77 89 / 10 20 10 30 Naples 73 90 74 92 / 0 0 0 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Miami
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Sat -- 12:56 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:35 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:00 PM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Miami, 79th St. Causeway, Florida, Tide feet

Miami Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 12:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:19 AM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:47 AM EDT     1.74 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:10 PM EDT     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:35 PM EDT     2.05 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current, knots

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